Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Univariate Time Series An Empirical Investigation of the Austrian Unemployment Rate

In recent years interest has been growing in testing for stochastic non-linearity in macroeconomic time series. There are several inference procedures available, but not much is known about their behaviour on real world small-sized settings. This paper surveys some of these tests. Their performance is compared using monthly Austrian unemployment data that cover the period January 1960 to December 1997. It is found that the test procedures surveyed are complementary rather than competing. Several useful guidelines are provided for applying the increasingly complex test procedures in practice.     

汇率与失业率关系的相关分析

通过利用统计学上的相关分析方法,对我国汇率与失业率的关系进行实证分析,得出我国汇率与失业率之间只存在低度负相关关系,符合传统理论有关汇率和失业率之间关系的描述.     

我国企业改革中员工失业心理的实证分析

采用调查问卷法,收集了国有、私营、股份制等企业员工的失业心理状态数据。数据分析结论表明：我国企业改革中关注的重点不是员工的“年龄”,而是员工的“学历”,即工作技能和适应能力。其目的在于弄清我国企业员工失业的心理状态,为顺利进行企业改革指出应克服的主要困难。     

《资本论》视域下的“产业后备军”理论辨析——一个与“失业”问题的关系性探讨

“产业后备军”问题是伴随近代工业革命以来的产物,在工业化社会中广泛存在,庞大的“产业后备军”既可以是巨大生产力的来源,又可能带来严峻的失业问题。通过辨析“产业后备军”概念,分析失业问题的可能成因,进而探讨马克思“产业后备军”理论与失业问题的关系,并进一步提示该群体在与资本逻辑的对抗中,由“产业后备军”转变为“产业生力军”的可能性,从而为当代中国的产业后备军群体实现充分就业,避免失业提供理论借鉴。     

试论失业保险与油田再就业工作的关系

油田的改革过程中始终伴随着失业与再就业问题。完善的失业保险制度能调动失业人员有序流动,促进劳动力资源合理配置。本文结合油田的实际情况,讨论了失业保险在油田改革中对促进再就业工作所起的作用。     

Does competitive employment improve nonvocational outcomes for people with severe mental illness?

The authors examined the cumulative effects of work on symptoms, quality of life, and self-esteem for 149 unemployed clients with severe mental illness receiving vocational rehabilitation. Nonvocational measures were assessed at 6-month intervals throughout the 18-month study period, and vocational activity was tracked continuously. On the basis of their predominant work activity over the study period, participants were classified into 4 groups: competitive work, sheltered work, minimal work, and no work. The groups did not differ at baseline on any of the nonvocational measures. Using mixed effects regression analysis to examine rates of change over time, the authors found that the competitive work group showed higher rates of improvement in symptoms; in satisfaction with vocational services, leisure, and finances; and in self-esteem than did participants in a combined minimal work–no work group. The sheltered work group showed no such advantage. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The future of work and uncertain labour alternatives as we live through the industrial age of possible singularity: Evidence from South Africa

This paper focused on uncovering the preparedness of the automobile labour force in embracing the outcome of technological domination in the motor industry in South Africa. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were initiated to generate data from three motor companies with purposively selected 30 participants. Findings revealed that auto employees who are not electrically inclined are self-encouraged to seek technical and electrical careers to secure a future in the automobile industry. These workers may also pursue careers in computer science. Many autoworkers have supplemented and stabilized their incomes through FOREX and Bitcoin mining trading. Simultaneously, these employees are receptive to changing careers in agriculture. Again, autoworkers prefer self-employment to the job insecurity associated with industrial positions. In general, motivation for upskilling for a future job in the automotive industry is low. Before the Covid-19 crisis, organizations were adopting new ways of doing business that tend to unready workers' readiness. This trend increased very steeply during the pandemic. Retraining and reskilling as steps for workers' readiness to face job automation are not outright answers that will lead to job security. Nonetheless, automobile workers have to treat their careers as businesses and invest in skills under the umbrella of non-automatable technical and non-technical job families.     

基于多元回归分析的中国城镇失业率问题研究

从宏观经济层面分析影响我国城镇失业率的相关因素，采用全序列法对所采集的原始数据进行无量纲化处理。分别应用1978-2009和1990-2007年数据得出多元回归分析只适合对失业率的短期预测。最后根据预测模型得出结论扩大出口，减少进口有利于减少我国城镇登记失业率，多元回归预测只适合对城镇失业率进行短期预测。     

The accessibility to employment offices in the Spanish labour market*

This paper focuses on the differences in the levels of accessibility to public employment offices in the Spanish municipalities. Hence the main purpose is to evaluate the role of the public employment services in local labour markets by considering the physical distance to employment offices and the spatial structure of their catchment areas. First, we propose an accessibility measure and, second, we estimate a spatial model and test whether a higher accessibility to employment offices could contribute to reduce local unemployment rates. The results suggest that policy‐makers should strive to improve the accessibility to employment offices so that adequate assistance to find suitable employment may be ensured to every jobseeker. Resumen Este artículo se centra en las diferencias en los niveles de accesibilidad a las oficinas públicas de empleo en los municipios españoles. El objetivo principal es por tanto evaluar el papel de los servicios públicos de empleo en los mercados laborales locales, en función de la distancia física a las oficinas de empleo y la estructura espacial de sus zonas de influencia. Primero, se propone una medida de accesibilidad y, a continuación, se estima un modelo espacial y se comprueba si una mayor accesibilidad a las oficinas de empleo podría contribuir a reducir las tasas de desempleo local. Los resultados sugieren que los responsables de formular políticas deberían esforzarse por mejorar la accesibilidad a las oficinas de empleo, a fin de poder asegurar a cada demandante de empleo la ayuda apropiada para que logre encontrar un empleo adecuado.      

From marianthal to latent growth mixture modeling: A return to the exploration of individual differences in response to unemployment.

Job-loss is a rapidly growing concern as we witness the greatest and most rapid economic downturn in a century. The negative psychological effect of unemployment has increasingly garnered attention. Previous literature has offered a formidable prognosis, stating that in response to job-loss, people typically follow a pattern of rapid decline in life satisfaction and never return to preunemployment levels. In this paper, we attempt to search for individual differences in response to job-loss using Latent Growth Mixture Modeling (LGMM) framework. By building homogeneous trajectories within a prospective design from 3 years before to 4 years after job-loss, we find that the majority of individuals (82%) demonstrate no long-term effects on life satisfaction in response to unemployment. We also examine the roll of larger market forces on levels of life satisfaction during and around the event of job-loss. Using a correlation model, demonstrated that life satisfaction is positively influenced by the regional unemployment rate. Clark (2003) argues that people report higher well-being when they lose their job if those in proximity to them are also becoming unemployed. Using the national and local unemployment rate in a regression model nested in the Latent Growth Model, we found that a social comparison effect is present immediately before unemployment but not once individuals became unemployed. This implies that people reference national and local employment trends in an attempt to anticipate their own course of employment rather than referencing those trends after job-loss. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)