Screening model for assessing ‘cost’ of minimum flow requirements in the Svartå River,Sweden

The minimum flow requirements in the Svartå River in Sweden are directed at maintaining fishlife and providing suitable dilution for waste flows. The implications of varying the minimum flow requirements in the river are examined using a mixed integer optimisation model. The model is formulated as a modified method-of-weights technique with the economic issues of hydro-electricity generation, irrigation and urban water supply placed in the objective function and the minimum flows specified within the constraint set. The integer component of the model is required to model the operating policy at the major flow regulation facility in the system and the restricted validity of the irrigation permits. Application of the model shows that in dry years where competition between minimum flow levels and the other economic uses, is most intense, the levels achieved by the various economic objectives are only slightly reduced even with significant increases in the minimum flow requirements. Variations in minimum flow requirements of up to 45% only produce changes of 10% or less in the economic objectives. The lack of sensitivity of the objective levels is due primarily to the level of control exerted indirectly on the whole system in dry years by the release regulation policy and the restricted validity of the irrigation permits. In normal to wet years these policies are not as restrictive and more choice is available. In such years, however, there is generally sufficient water to satisfy all requirements and allocation is not a critical issue. The model itself is formulated generally so that a range of scenarios beyond those examined specifically in the paper can be considered.     

Robust spatial flood vulnerability assessment for Han River using fuzzy TOPSIS with α-cut level set

This study aims to improve the general flood vulnerability approach using fuzzy TOPSIS based on α-cut level sets which can reduce the uncertainty inherent in even fuzzy multi-criteria decision making process. Since fuzzy TOPSIS leads to a crisp closeness for each alternative, it is frequently argued that fuzzy weights and fuzzy ratings should be in fuzzy relative closeness. Therefore, this study used a modified α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS to develop a spatial flood vulnerability approach for Han River in Korea, considering various uncertainties in weights derivation and crisp data aggregation. Two results from fuzzy TOPSIS and modified fuzzy TOPSIS were compared. Some regions which showed no or small ranking changes have their centro-symmetric distributions, while other regions whose rankings varied dynamically, have biased (anti-symmetric) distributions. It can be concluded that α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS produce more robust prioritization since more uncertainties can be considered. This method can be applied to robust spatial vulnerability or decision making in water resources management.     

基于SVM模型的妫水河叶绿素a浓度的遥感反演

以北京市妫水河为研究区,基于2011年9月25日和2012年9月30日的两期叶绿素a浓度实测数据和准同步的环境一号卫星(HJ-1A)多光谱数据,分别构建一元线性和多元支持向量机模型(SVMM),通过决定系数R²和平均相对误差对模型的精度进行检验,用模型进行水体叶绿素a浓度的反演,并分析其时空分布特征。研究表明:在样本数较少的情况下,SVM具有很强的非线性映射能力,能够取得较好的预测结果,更适用于反演叶绿素a浓度。时间分布上,研究区叶绿素a浓度呈增加趋势,均值上升了6.86 μg/L;空间分布上,深水区叶绿素a浓度值低于浅水区,上游高于下游。国产HJ-1A CCD2多光谱数据以其4 d的时间分辨率,在水质动态变化监测方面具有优势。     

Relation between structural evolution of the Longmenshan orogenic zone and sedimentation of its foreland basin

In order to determine the area for oil and gas exploration in China's north Sichuan basin, we have divided the time during which the Longmenshan foreland basin was formed into five periods, based on the sedimentary response relationship of the fore-land basin to structural evolution: 1) a late Triassic Noric period; 2) an early-Middle Jurassic period; 3) a late Jurassic to early Cre-taceous period; 4) a late Cretaceous to Paleogene-Neogene period and 5) the Quaternary period. As well, we analyzed the sedimen-tary environment and lithologic features of every basin-forming period. The results show that there are several favorable source-reservoir-cap assemblages in our study area, making it a major region for future oil and gas exploration in China's northern Sichuan basin.     

ENSO事件对松花江流域夏季降水的影响

对1951—2000年的ENSO事件对松花江流域夏季(6—8月)降水的影响进行了分析,结果显示:赤道中东太平洋海温异常与松花江流域夏季降水有很好的相关性,特别是ENSO事件出现后,El Nino事件影响年通常对应于松花江流域夏季降水偏多,La Nina事件影响年松花江流域夏季降水则较常年偏少,且二者通过了置信度α=0.05的显著性检验.这种相关性可用于进行松花江流域夏季降水的预测.     

Zipf定律在划定经济区域内的实证研究——以长江三角洲经济区为例

国外关于Zipf定律的实证研究的区域空间多采用国家层次,而国内关于Zipf定律的实证研究则涉及国家、跨省的经济区及行政省的不同层次,于是这就有可能存在经济区域空间划定是否合理的问题。现以长江三角洲地区为例,通过修正的引力模型计算城市之间的经济联系强度及潜能,以此进行长江三角洲经济区域的空间划定,并在划定的经济区域内进行Zipf定律的实证研究,以验证经济区域空间划定是否合理。研究结果显示了经济区域空间划定的合理性。     

基于2030可持续发展目标的珠三角土地消耗率与人口增长率协调关系评价

量化联合国可持续发展目标SDG 11.3.1“土地消耗率与人口增长率的比率（LCRPGR）”有助于了解城市扩张与人口增长之间的关系,为城市国土空间规划和人口城镇化调控提供数据支撑,并且对指导决策者制定城市增长计划至关重要。基于土地利用产品、夜间灯光数据和人口普查数据,提取了城市建成区,利用地理加权回归模型测算了珠三角地区1 km×1 km格网尺度人口密度。依据SDG 11.3.1指标元数据中定义和公式,对珠三角地区可持续发展进行了可靠评价。结果显示：①1990~2010年珠三角建成区面积扩张4.6倍,城区人口增长3.7倍;②1990~2010年珠三角的LCRPGR值由0.71增长到2.01;城市扩张速度与人口增长速度并非是成比例协调增长关系;③建成区的扩张主要是由耕地和农村居民用地转换而来。综上,自2000年后珠三角地区土地消耗率已经超过人口增长率,城市扩张速度与人口增长速度并非是成比例协调增长关系,二者的差异在增大,应当引起一定注意。     

A customised approach to determining the geomorphic effectiveness of small flood events in a regulated river

The construction of dams significantly alters flow and sediment regimes with subsequent deleterious effects on the morphological and ecological character of rivers. Effective experimental floods can ameliorate the downstream geomorphic impacts of dams. The traditional view is that large floods are required to perform effective geomorphic work, and the geomorphic outcomes of small floods are often overlooked. Many river restoration frameworks do not consider small floods. Yet, there is evidence that the hydrological characteristics that ameliorate specific geomorphic impacts in a river are unique to each river, and a customised approach to setting the right mix of floods (including small experimental floods) is needed. In this study, we modify an existing flood effectiveness model developed for large floods, for determining the geomorphic effectiveness of small floods in a highly regulated Australian river. Two flood classes were added to the model (medium peak stream power and moderate total energy expenditure), and the flood power characteristics were rescaled to reflect the relative difference in the magnitude of the small floods and the magnitude of the geomorphic work performed. Using a step‐wise approach, this customised model determined the geomorphic effectiveness of small floods. The best flood for ameliorating the geomorphic impacts of flow regulation had medium to long duration (10 to 51 days), high peak unit stream power (77 to 123 Wm^?2) and moderate to large total energy expenditure (78,600 to 342,320 × 10³ J). This approach to determining flood effectiveness for small floods is applicable to other geomorphically impacted river channels downstream of dams and can be used to inform experimental flood releases for geomorphic outcomes.     

Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers in Surface Sediment from Songhua River Basin, Northeast of China

Sixty sediment samples were collected from the main Songhua River in three years. Twelve polybrominated diphenyl ether ( PBDE) congeners ( BDE17, 28, 47, 66, 99, 100, 153, 154, 138, 183, and BDE?209) w...     

基于光谱和时相特征的夏玉米遥感识别

精确提取作物种植面积一直是农业遥感关注的主要问题之一。综合运用低分辨率的时相变化特征和中分辨率的光谱特征,提出一种夏玉米识别方法。首先基于MODIS NDVI时间序列曲线,分析夏玉米在时相变化上的识别特征,构建识别模型。夏玉米纯像元利用识别模型识别,而耕地和非耕地类型的植被产生的混合像元,则基于像元分解办法获取耕地组分的NDVI时序特征,再利用识别模型判定,然后结合土地利用数据根据空间关系得到中分辨率结果;玉米与其他作物的混合像元则利用中分辨率尺度光谱差异加以区分。研究结果表明,在伊洛河流域主要农业区,识别精度达到90.33%,为作物类型识别提供了新的思路。