黑河径流时空演变规律分析

以黑河的祁连站、莺落峡站和正义峡站为代表站,选取1945～2000年的月平均径流资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和谱分析方法对黑河径流的趋势变化和周期变化进行分析,结果表明:近半个世纪以来,黑河流域的径流呈现出明显的减少趋势,并显示出2～3年和9年的周期变化规律.     

海口市极端降雨事件演变趋势分析

城市暴雨内涝与极端降雨事件息息相关。为揭示城市暴雨内涝成因,利用海口站1953-2012年日降雨量资料,采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和小波分析法等探讨了海口市极端降雨事件演变规律。结果表明:近60年来海口市极端降雨指标均呈现出上升趋势,但极端降雨日数上升趋势较弱,短历时暴雨强度增加,对城市内涝带来较大压力;极端降雨事件的突变年份在2007年附近,暗示海口市在2007年附近对土地的开发利用是一个节点;海口市降雨周期性不是很显著。     

普洱市相对湿度时空变化特征分析

为揭示普洱市相对湿度的变化趋势,以普洱市6个气象站1961-2015年共55年逐日相对湿度序列为研究对象,采用线性回归分析和Mann-Kendall检验法对普洱市年和四季相对湿度的趋势性和突变性进行分析,结果表明:①普洱市相对湿度年内变化曲线呈现单峰单谷型,相对湿度最小出现在3月,7月达到最大,夏秋季节均在80%以上;②近55年来,普洱市年和四季平均相对湿度均呈现出显著减少趋势,其平均变化速率为-0.81%/10年,从四季来看,冬季相对湿度减小幅度最大,夏季、秋季次之,春季最小;③普洱市各站平均相对湿度在空间上也存在差异,整体呈现自西北到东南逐渐增加的规律。     

Climate change characteristics of Amur River

Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and property. Both temperature and precipitation are representative variables usually used to directly reflect and forecast the influences of climate change. In this study, daily data (from 1953 to 1995) and monthly data (from 1950 to 2010) of temperature and precipitation in five regions of the Amur River were examined. The significance of changes in temperature and precipitation was tested using the Mann-Kendall test method. The amplitudes were computed using the linear least-squares regression model, and the extreme temperature and precipitation were analyzed using hydrological statistical methods. The results show the following: the mean annual temperature increased significantly from 1950 to 2010 in the five regions, mainly due to the warming in spring and winter; the annual precipitation changed significantly from 1950 to 2010 only in the lower mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of extremely low temperature events decreased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of high temperature events increased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; and the frequency of extreme precipitation events did not change significantly from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River. This study provides a valuable theoretical basis for settling disputes between China and Russia on sustainable development and utilization of water resources of the Amur River.     

近60多年洞庭湖水沙演变特征及其与人类活动的关系

基于1955—2018年洞庭湖水沙数据,运用Mann-Kendall检验法、双累积曲线等方法分析了洞庭湖近60多年水沙演变特征及其与人类活动的关系.研究结果表明:①受长江荆江段河道变化以及水利枢纽建设等的影响,三口、四水入洞庭湖水沙呈显著下降趋势,其中以三口输沙量的变化最为显著,且受三口水沙变化的影响,城陵矶年径流量与...     

1958—2017年滇中引水工程受水区降水时空变化

为了对滇中引水工程水资源进行科学调度和合理配置,开展滇中引水工程受水区降水时空分布研究.基于受水区内8个雨量站的60 a降水数据,采用云模型、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析和协同克里金插值法探究受水区降水序列的时空分布特征.结果 表明:年内降水量主要集中在6—8月,12月至次年2月降水量少;夏季降水时间分布不均...     

基于MK-XGBoost的多传感器融合火灾识别技术

针对单一传感器预测中的漏报、误报的缺点,本文提出了一种基于MK-XGBoost的多传感器数据融合火灾识别技术.该技术通过采集受限空间的温度、烟雾质量浓度、CO体积分数,基于Mann-Kendall检验方法生成趋势因子,该因子与上升趋势呈正相关,后续将火灾数据与趋势因子作为特征,采用XG-Boost算法判断火灾是否发生....     

The effect of man made source processes on the behavior of total gaseous mercury in air: a comparison between four urban monitoring sites in Seoul Korea

Concentrations of total gaseous mercury (TGM) were measured continuously at four urban residential locations (G (Guro-gu); N (Nowon-gu); S (Songpa-gu); and Y (Yongsan-gu)) in Seoul, Korea from 2004 to 2009. The mean concentrations of Hg at these sites were found on the order of N (3.98 ± 1.68 ng m^− 3), S (3.87 ± 1.56 ng m^− 3), G (3.80 ± 1.60 ng m^− 3), and Y (3.36 ± 1.55 ng m^− 3). Evidence indicates that the spatial distribution of Hg should be affected by the combined effects of both local anthropogenic (incineration facilities and thermal power plants) and natural (soil) emission sources in association with the meteorological parameters. Inspection of the Hg temporal patterns indicates the co-existence of contrasting seasonal patterns between the central site Y (winter dominance) and all other outbound sites near city borders (summer dominance). The long-term trend of Hg, if examined by combining our previous studies and the present one, shows that Hg levels in this urban area declined gradually across decadal periods despite slight variabilities in spatial scale: (1) above 10 ng m^− 3 in the late 1980s, (2) ~ 5 ng m^− 3 in the late 1990s, and (3) ~ 3 ng m^− 3 toward the late 2000s. The results of the principal component analysis along with observed differences in seasonal patterns (between study sites) suggest that Hg distributions between different urban sites are greatly distinguishable with strong source signatures at each individual site.     

基于统计学与新安江模型相结合的土地利用变化引起的径流响应分析方法

鉴于水文模型评价土地利用变化的特点,实际上水文模型的参数也可反映流域水文特性和降雨径流过程,不同时期的最优参数可以反映流域系统的变化。将统计学方法与水文模型相结合,分析土地利用变化对径流的影响,即先利用统计学方法判断降雨径流的趋势,找出降雨径流系列的突变点并据此划分不同时期,然后对不同时期日模型参数进行优选,并对参数变化结果进行对比分析。在大坡岭流域的应用表明,该方法对土地利用变化引起的径流响应分析行之有效。     

海河流域历史水旱序列变化规律研究

对历史时期旱涝灾害的重建及其影响研究是当前探求气候事件发生规律的热点之一,而对周期的计算和对突变点的检测又是探求规律的重要手段。基于海河流域540a旱涝等级资料,运用谱功率分析、小波分析、指数分析和Mann-Kendall法等方法分别对海河流域水旱发生周期和突变点进行计算分析。结论显示：海河流域水旱灾害在历史上分别存在10a,23a,37a和75a左右的主导周期;在17至18世纪间,流域经历了旱型－涝型的转变。