渭河流域综合用水水平的最优化分类研究

针对流域综合用水水平进行最优分类的问题,提出了一种利用多元统计分析的F-统计量和变化的显著性水平的新方法,用其进行最优化分类的研究,构造了一种寻求最优分类的方法来寻求最优阈值。以渭河流域陕西段为例,采用该地区2003年~2005年资料,进行流域综合用水水平的最优分类研究,结果表明：该流域的综合用水水平可分为4种不同的类型,符合当地的实际用水情况,可为管理部门制定合理规划提供一定的依据。     

汉江河口段航道整治工程效果与影响的计算分析

汉江河口段航道整治工程以疏浚、清障为主,辅以必要的护岸、护滩、填挖槽等工程措施,本文采用河道演变分析和一、二维水流数学模型计算,研究了该航道整治工程的效果及其对河道行洪的影响,并优化了工程方案.研究表明:(1)丹江口水库自1968年正式蓄水以来,汉江河口段河道总体冲刷下切,年内洪淤枯冲;影响河道演变的主要因素有:丹江口水库、长江与汉江顶托和天然节点与人工护岸等.(2)航道整治工程实施后.汉江河口段上段流速趋于减小,下段流速趋于增加;河道流速分布趋于均化.(3)航道整治工程对河道行洪的影响有限,最大洪水壅高9.4cm,优化方案的最大洪水壅高7.0cm.     

DYNAMIC CORRECTION OF ROUGHNESS IN THE HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL

Based on the hydrodynamic model and the Xinanjiang model, the river stage forecasting model has been proposed. But its performance is not satisfactory as applied to estuary areas. River roughness is a sensitive parameter in the hydrodynamic model, and its value is related to some substantial uncertainties in the tidal river. According to roughness tests, a new method of roughness dynamic correction was developed to improve the performance of the stage model. The method was focused on the usage of observed data for the studied section, and its parameters were analyzed. Nested with the dynamic correction of roughness, the stage model was applied to the tidal reach of the Caoe River. The results demonstrate that the roughness dynamic correction can improve the simulation accuracy of the stage model, and especially has the capacity of reducing the errors at peak stages.     

Enhancing Inflow Forecasting Model at Aswan High Dam Utilizing Radial Basis Neural Network and Upstream Monitoring Stations Measurements

The Nile River is considered the main life artery for so many African countries especially Egypt. Therefore, it is of the essence to preserve its water and utilize it very efficiently. Developing inflow-forecasting model is considered the technical way to effectively achieve such preservation. The hydrological system of the Nile River under consideration has several dams and barrages that are equipped with control gates. The improvement of these hydraulic structures’ criteria for operation can be assessed if reliable forecasts of inflows to the reservoir are available. Recently, the authors developed a forecasting model for the natural inflow at Aswan High Dam (AHD) based on Artificial Intelligence (AI). This model was developed based on the historical inflow data of the AHD and successfully provided accurate inflow forecasts with error less than 10%. However, having several forecasting models based on different types of data increase the level of confidences of the water resources planners and AHD operators. In this study, two forecasting model approach based on Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) method for the natural inflow at AHD utilizing the stream flow data of the monitoring stations upstream the AHD is developed. Natural inflow data collected over the last 30 years at four monitoring stations upstream AHD were used to develop the model and examine its performance. Inclusive data analysis through examining cross-correlation sequences, water traveling time, and physical characteristics of the stream flow data have been developed to help reach the most suitable RBFNN model architecture. The Forecasting Error (FE) value of the error and the distribution of the error are the two statistical performance indices used to evaluate the model accuracy. In addition, comprehensive comparison analysis is carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed model over those recently developed for forecasting the inflow at AHD. The results of the current study showed that the proposed model improved the forecasting accuracy by 50% for the low inflow season, while keep the forecasting accuracy in the same range for the high inflow season.     

Optimal Water Resources Management: Case of Lower Litani River, Lebanon

The pressures of human population and patterns of development frequently jeopardize the integrity of river systems worldwide. An integrated approach to water resources management is essential, particularly in developing countries. This study presents the results of the water resources optimization conducted for the Lower Litani River Basin in Lebanon. The overall aim of the project is to develop, test, and critically evaluate an innovative approach to water resources management in the Mediterranean region. The method explores the ways in which multiple environmental, economic, and social benefits can be achieved through integrated management of water resources. The Water Resources Model was utilized to assess the efficiency of the baseline model scenario and for the optimization process of the different scenarios of the Litani Lower Basin. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis was applied in order to derive the objectives and constraints. Results revealed that the potential retained scenarios aim at decreasing water consumption and demand, losses, and return flow. These scenarios mainly include the shift to drip irrigation, awareness campaigns, and losses control in domestic supply pipes. Other retained scenarios having a higher shortfall rely on the use of the Channel concrete lining to decrease losses and return flow, in addition to the awareness campaigns in both domestic and irrigation sectors, and less consumptive/more efficient irrigation methods such as sprinkler and drip irrigation at variable application percentages. Hence, most of the interventions or measures proposed are generally not costly and can be implemented.     

黄河强烈游荡,严重淤积的原因

强烈游荡，严重淤积，是黄河下游河道的两个主要特征，也是黄河一切灾难的主要原因。前是断面太宽浅而直接引起的问题，是由来水来沙搭配关系决定的。水沙关系ｍ值小于２．５的属于大水来沙偏少而小水来沙偏多，滩地不易淤高而河槽易于淤浅，形成多汊宽线游荡性河流；反之，ｍ大于２．５的则形成单股窄深蠕动性河流。黄河下游ｍ约为２，故成为强烈游荡的宽浅河道。后则是河道输沙能力的形成问题，是由纵横断面的配合决定的，黄河     

黄河上游水文情报预报的发展与应用

黄河上游流域人烟稀少，经济不发达，６０年代前水文站网寥寥无几。７０、８０年代，黄委会上游水文水资源局，在该地区的黄河干流上恢复，新建了一批水文站，并在其主要支流设立了水文站。这些站网现控制站康乃亥以上流域的广大地区。     

澜沧江中游段洪水随机模拟研究

本文分析计算了澜沧江中游段洪水过程随机统计特性，阐述了采用典型解集模型和周期性一阶自回归模型模拟洪水过程情况，取得了比较满意的结果。     

珠江口盆地NH25油藏沉积微相研究

以岩心描述为基础,综合各种分析化验资料,对珠江口盆地NH25油藏岩石学特征、岩石相特征、生物遗迹化石等方面开展深入研究。结果表明储层成分成熟度较高,结构成熟度中等,发育6种岩石相,海生迹遗迹化石丰富、分布广泛,成岩作用较弱,对物性影响不大。综合确定研究区属滨岸相临滨亚相沉积,进一步分为上临滨、中临滨、下临滨,利用孔隙度和渗透率对沉积微相进行定量识别。沉积微相与油藏开发关系表明:上临滨产能高于中临滨,中临滨产能高于下临滨产能,下临滨和中临滨及不同沉积微相过渡区是剩余油富集区。     

抓住机遇 创建精品 加快黄河上游水电开发进程

黄河上游蕴藏着十分丰富的水电资源,自然条件和建设条件优越,淹没损失小,工程投资低,具有良好的开发前景,近期要加快公伯峡水电站建设,抓紧拉西瓦、积石峡水电站前期工作,积极进行中型水电站开发,为了提高工程建设管理水平,要坚持“五制”管理,规范管理程序,推行文明施工;加强合同管理,加强质量管理,搞好进度计划控制,工程投资控制,建设精品工程。