Backtesting portfolio value-at-risk with estimated portfolio weights

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) with estimation risk in an intrinsically multi-variate framework. It particularly takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating portfolio weights and that from estimating the multi-variate dynamic model make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. It proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to implement valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. In particular, we apply our theory to the efficient mean-variance-skewness portfolio for a multi-variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with multi-variate general hyperbolic distributed innovations. Some Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate the merits of our method.     

Improved synergetic excitation control for transient stability enhancement and voltage regulation of power systems

This paper proposes decentralized improved synergetic excitation controllers (ISEC) for synchronous generators to enhance transient stability and obtain satisfactory voltage regulation performance of power systems. Each generator is considered as a subsystem, for which an ISEC is designed. According to the control objectives, a manifold, which is a linear combination of the deviation of generator terminal voltage, rotor speed and active power, is chosen for the design of ISEC. Compared with the conventional synergetic excitation controller (CSEC), a parameter adaptation scheme is proposed for updating the controller parameter online in order to improve the transient stability and voltage regulation performance simultaneously under various operating conditions. Case studies are undertaken on a single-machine infinite-bus power system and a two-area four-machine power system, respectively. Simulation results show the ISEC can provide better damping and voltage regulation performance, compared with the CSEC without parameter adaptation scheme and the conventional power system stabilizer.     

A web-based software tool for participatory optimization of conservation practices in watersheds

WRESTORE (Watershed Restoration Using Spatio-Temporal Optimization of Resources) is a web-based, participatory planning tool that can be used to engage with watershed stakeholder communities, and involve them in using science-based, human-guided, interactive simulation–optimization methods for designing potential conservation practices on their landscape. The underlying optimization algorithms, process simulation models, and interfaces allow users to not only spatially optimize the locations and types of new conservation practices based on quantifiable goals estimated by the dynamic simulation models, but also to include their personal subjective and/or unquantifiable criteria in the location and design of these practices. In this paper, we describe the software, interfaces, and architecture of WRESTORE, provide scenarios for implementing the WRESTORE tool in a watershed community's planning process, and discuss considerations for future developments.     

Managing readiness-relevant activities for the organizational dimension of ERP implementation

An organization requires performing readiness-relevant activities to ensure successful implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system. This paper develops a novel approach to managing these interrelated activities to get ready for implementing an ERP system. The approach enables an organization to evaluate its ERP implementation readiness by assessing the degree to which it can achieve the interrelated readiness relevant activities using fuzzy cognitive maps. Based on the interrelationship degrees among the activities, the approach clusters the activities into manageable groups and prioritizes them. To help work out a readiness improvement plan, scenario analysis is conducted.     

Design of disturbance observer based on adaptive-neural control for large-scale time-delay systems in the presence of actuator fault and unknown dead zone

This article presents an adaptive neural compensation scheme for a class of large-scale time delay nonlinear systems in the presence of unknown dead zone, external disturbances, and actuator faults. In this article, the quadratic Lyapunov–Krasovskii functionals are introduced to tackle the system delays. The unknown functions of the system are estimated by using radial basis function neural networks. Furthermore, a disturbance observer is developed to approximate the external disturbances. The proposed adaptive neural compensation control method is constructed by utilizing a backstepping technique. The boundedness of all the closed-loop signals is guaranteed via Lyapunov analysis and the tracking errors are proved to converge to a small neighborhood of the origin. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control approach.     

基于“天空地”一体化技术的安全监测系统建设与应用

西藏江达县白格村金沙江右岸于2018年10月11日和2018年11月3日先后发生2次大规模滑坡—堰塞湖堵江事件,溃堰洪水对下游拉哇库区不良地质体的稳定性造成不同程度的影响。为保障下游水电站建设安全,对拉哇库区主要不良地质体建立了基于星载InSAR技术、无人机技术和地面传感器实时监测的“天空地”一体化监测预警体系,以多维空间采集技术获取变形信息,通过智能监控平台对信息及时进行处理、分析和可视化呈现,利用平台、短信等方式向相关人员进行分级告警,取得了较好的应用效果。     

Matrilin-3-Primed Adipose-Derived Mesenchymal Stromal Cell Spheroids Prevent Mesenchymal Stromal-Cell-Derived Chondrocyte Hypertrophy

Adipose-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (Ad-MSCs) are a promising tool for articular cartilage repair and regeneration. However, the terminal hypertrophic differentiation of Ad-MSC-derived cartilage is a critical barrier during hyaline cartilage regeneration. In this study, we investigated the role of matrilin-3 in preventing Ad-MSC-derived chondrocyte hypertrophy in vitro and in an osteoarthritis (OA) destabilization of the medial meniscus (DMM) model. Methacrylated hyaluron (MAHA) (1%) was used to encapsulate and make scaffolds containing Ad-MSCs and matrilin-3. Subsequently, the encapsulated cells in the scaffolds were differentiated in chondrogenic medium (TGF-β, 1–14 days) and thyroid hormone hypertrophic medium (T3, 15–28 days). The presence of matrilin-3 with Ad-MSCs in the MAHA scaffold significantly increased the chondrogenic marker and decreased the hypertrophy marker mRNA and protein expression. Furthermore, matrilin-3 significantly modified the expression of TGF-β2, BMP-2, and BMP-4. Next, we prepared the OA model and transplanted Ad-MSCs primed with matrilin-3, either as a single-cell suspension or in spheroid form. Safranin-O staining and the OA score suggested that the regenerated cartilage morphology in the matrilin-3-primed Ad-MSC spheroids was similar to the positive control. Furthermore, matrilin-3-primed Ad-MSC spheroids prevented subchondral bone sclerosis in the mouse model. Here, we show that matrilin-3 plays a major role in modulating Ad-MSCs’ therapeutic effect on cartilage regeneration and hypertrophy suppression.     

优化军工科研项目管理的具体策略

我国的军工科研所成立于上世纪，它以军工项目的科研、预研为主，为我国的国防军工提供研发产品。伴随着我国经济实力的增强和科技军事力量的增长，军工科研院所也转变了原有的工业专属性质，走上了军民两用、寓军于民的道路，并在时代的进步中成为了我国先进装备制造业的重要科研力量和科技创新支柱。凸现军事工业“高、精、尖”的特点，以项目管理的优化为具体策略进行军工科研开发工作。     

Operational time-series data modeling via LSTM network integrating principal component analysis based on human experience

Today’s information technologies involve increasingly intelligent systems, which come at the cost of increasingly complex equipment. Modern monitoring systems collect multi-measuring-point and long-term data which make equipment health prediction a “big data” problem. It is difficult to extract information from such condition monitoring data to accurately estimate or predict health statuses. Deep learning is a powerful tool for big data processing that is widely utilized in image and speech recognition applications, and can also provide effective predictions in industrial processes. This paper proposes the Long Short-term Memory Integrating Principal Component Analysis based on Human Experience (HEPCA-LSTM), which uses operational time-series data for equipment health prognostics. Principal component analysis based on human experience is first conducted to extract condition parameters from the condition monitoring system. The long short-term memory (LSTM) framework is then constructed to predict the target status. Finally, a dynamic update of the prediction model with incoming data is performed at a certain interval to prevent any model misalignment caused by the drifting of relevant variables. The proposed model is validated on a practical case and found to outperform other prediction methods. It utilizes a powerful deep learning analysis method, the LSTM, to fully process big condition monitoring series data; it effectively extracts the features involved with human experience and takes dynamic updates into consideration.     

智能化救援监控系统在煤矿安全生产中的应用

针对煤矿发生事故后传统救援监控系统无法实时对井下人员进行动态定位，导致矿井救援盲目性大、救援效率差、救援难度大等技术难题，为了进一步提高煤矿救援效率，通过技术研究，设计了一套以通信基站为核心的智能化救援监控系统，分析了该系统结构组成、工作原理，通过在担水沟煤矿井下实际应用效果来看，智能化救援监控系统对人员定位精准度达95%，实现人员动态位置三维成像，救援效率提高至80%以上，有效缩短了煤矿事故救援时间，取得了显著应用成效。