基于变权灰色关联法的长江荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度分析

对荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度进行分析研究,为实现区域水资源可持续合理利用提供科学依据。在水资源短缺评价研究中,前期研究成果大多采用常权法确定评价指标,致使评价指标产生状态失衡。将变权理论引入到水资源短缺程度分析中,从而确定评价指标变权重,并结合灰色关联法,构建水资源短缺程度分析的变权灰色关联法模型并加以应用。最终得出荆南三口地区三县的水资源短缺程度均为轻度缺水,其缺水程度排序为:华容县南县安乡县。利用变权灰色关联法计算水资源短缺程度,方法可行,结果合理,满足了评价指标均衡性要求。     

三峡库区梅溪河河口干支流界面水流特征

通过对三峡库区中部典型支流梅溪河库湾水动力参数及水体温度、浊度数据进行分析,研究水库运行各时期梅溪河河口干支流界面水流特性,探讨其影响因素以及水交换对库湾的影响。结果表明:梅溪河河口双向水流特征明显,在温差异重流、干流惯性作用以及库区水位变动等因素影响下,干支流界面水流强度、进出水体间界面结构及形态在不同运行期有显著差异;由于双向水流结构的存在,尽管梅溪河河口干支流界面净流量较小(多小于100 m~3/s),但是干支流水体的交换量相对显著,介于314.17~535.26 m~3/s之间,可达净流量的4~40倍;在净流量最小的低水位运行期,干流倒灌水体基本能到达支流库湾常年回水区的末端。     

对口丁坝双岸整治对黄河下游河道冲淤的影响

选取低含沙水沙系列、枯水多沙水沙系列以及规划设计的未来50 a水沙系列,利用黄河下游一维水沙数学模型,模拟计算了对口丁坝双岸治理方案下黄河下游河道在3种水沙系列条件下的冲淤状况。结果表明,游荡性河段采用对口丁坝方案整治后,输沙能力得到了提高,该河段多输送的泥沙一半以上输送到利津以下,其余部分淤积在高村—利津河段,其中淤积以高村—艾山河段为主,艾山—利津河段的冲淤情况与现状相比变化不大。     

大凌河流域初始水权分配实践评价

结合大凌河流域初始水权分配实践,从分配范围、分配机制、分配原则、分配模型等方面,对现有研究成果进行全面梳理。在此基础上,结合大凌河流域特点,借鉴我国流域水资源配置评价指标体系,从公平性、效率性、可持续发展、政府宏观调控4个维度,设计了一套水权分配评价指标体系,进而构建了初始水权分配实践效果的耦合评价模型,并应用于大凌河流域。结果表明,在政府和大凌河流域水行政管理部门的宏观调控作用下,通过加强大凌河流域所在区域的政治民主协商,流域内各区域水权分配结果充分体现了与其社会经济发展之间的匹配性,且各区域之间的耦合协同发展效度均达到较高水平。     

珠江干流(2008—2015年)水质变化趋势分析

以珠江干流为研究区域,选取源头及干流10个水质断面的2008-2015年7项参数监测数据,采用季节性kendall趋势检验法分析珠江干流的水质变化趋势,得出珠江干流各测站的pH、溶解氧(DO)、高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)、总磷(TP)、氟化物(F-)共5项参数趋于改善,五日生化需氧量(BOD5)及氨氮(NH3-N)共2项参数浓度基本保持不变;流域水质变化综合指数WQTI表明珠江干流总体水质状况趋向改善;水质呈现上游恶化中下游好转、污染物呈现以省区为单位以省会为中心的西部低东部高的地域分布特点.     

基于泄洪移民区域分汊河道泄流相互影响的模型试验研究

基于政府的组织行为、政府的协调行为和政府的监督行为与行洪移民区域后期扶持的具体工作的研究,治淮工程移民安置方案产生31.2亿元的投资。移民区域的大小与安全行洪区范围直接相关,分汊河道行洪的最佳分流比决定了行洪的安全与否。为了探讨复杂并联泄洪河道中不同的闸门控制对泄流的影响,论文结合淮河入江水道归江控制段模型试验,对复杂分汊并联河道的分流比及其流态对河道的稳定等进行了分析研究。通过对所采集的水位流量资料进行理论分析,按照不同的闸门开度组合,结合水面流态,系统分析入江水道中下段分汊并联河道在不同的流量下最优闸门开度组合及支汊分流比。单闸控制,主汊河道闸门开度一定时,分流比随着总泄流量增加而减小,两支汊河道分流比基本相同,且随总泄流量增加而增加。双闸控制,主汊河道和支汊河道闸门组合调节时,主汊分流比同单闸控制,支汊分流比变化量来自主汊,不影响其他支汊河道分流比。最优闸门开度为主汊单闸控制2/3开度,最优分流比为76%、12%、12%,在此分流比下行洪,将保持移民后期区域不扩大或缩小。     

Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios

Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020 s and increase in the 2030 s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050 are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from-7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.     

Assessment of future climate change impacts on hydrological behavior of Richmond River Catchment

This study evaluated the impacts of future climate change on the hydrological response of the Richmond River Catchment in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using the conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling approach (the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model). Daily observations of rainfall, temperature, and streamflow and long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration from the meteorological and hydrological stations within the catchment for the period of 1972–2014 were used to run, calibrate, and validate the HBV model prior to the streamflow prediction. Future climate signals of rainfall and temperature were extracted from a multi-model ensemble of seven global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) with three regional climate scenarios, A2, A1B, and B1. The calibrated HBV model was then forced with the ensemble mean of the downscaled daily rainfall and temperature to simulate daily future runoff at the catchment outlet for the early part (2016–2043), middle part (2044–2071), and late part (2072–2099) of the 21st century. All scenarios during the future periods present decreasing tendencies in the annual mean streamflow ranging between 1% and 24.3% as compared with the observed period. For the maximum and minimum flows, all scenarios during the early, middle, and late parts of the century revealed significant declining tendencies in the annual mean maximum and minimum streamflows, ranging between 30% and 44.4% relative to the observed period. These findings can assist the water managers and the community of the Richmond River Catchment in managing the usage of future water resources in a more sustainable way.     

鲁古河水库供水工程对水源区水环境影响分析

以鲁古河水库供水工程为例,采用"湖泊完全混合衰减模式"进行水质预测,分析工程引水后,鲁古河水库水量减少水环境容量降低可能对库内水质及下游河道用水产生的影响。预测结果表明调水后鲁古河库内BOD和氨氮增幅较小,污染物浓度可达到水质标准要求,引水后不会对下游用水量和水质产生影响。     

基于弯道二次流修正模型的大辽河潮流界时空变化模拟

基于ELADI算法的平面二维水环境模型WESC2D,定量研究大辽河潮区界与潮流界的时空变化规律。在模拟和验证大辽河潮位变化过程基础上,通过数值试验系统地模拟分析了上游径流量及汇流比、下游潮差和海平面上升对大辽河潮区界与潮流界的影响规律,并以1999年—2009年水文过程为条件定量研究大辽河潮流界的年、月变化及潮流界位置出现频率。结果表明,径流是影响大辽河潮区界与潮流界位置的主要因素,大辽河潮流界远远超过三岔河。