Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

Entry into force of the UN Watercourses Convention: why should it matter?

The United Nations Watercourses Convention entered into force on 17 August 2014, following a long and complex journey that dates back to 1970 when the UN referred the matter to its legal arm, the International Law Commission. This article follows the Convention through that long and turbulent road, examines its main provisions and analyses the reasons for the delay of its entry into force. It concludes by answering the question of why entry into force of the Convention should indeed matter.     

探讨加强质量监督管理提高电网安全水平

电网的安全水平主要取决于其使用产品的质量是否过关。如果产品的质量较好，则能建造出优质的电网，电网的安全水平便会随之提高。因此，应加强对产品质量的监督管理，从而提高电网的安全水平。我们可建立质量监督管理系统，及时抽检出质量不过关的产品，从而消除电网运行过程中潜在的安全隐患。     

气管上段腺样囊性癌的临床病理

目的　探讨气管上段腺样囊性癌的临床病理特征及诊断和鉴别诊断要点。方法　收集2000年1月至2014年2月在北京协和医院确诊的4例气管上段腺样囊性癌病例，通过光镜、免疫组织化学及组织化学染色分析其临床病理特征、免疫组织化学特点、诊断及鉴别诊断要点。结果　4例气管上段腺样囊性癌患者中，男1例，女3例，平均年龄47岁(38~57岁）；既往均无腺样囊性癌病史，1例患者既往有结节性甲状腺肿手术史。镜下检查4例均为筛状/管状型腺样囊性癌，3例累及甲状腺组织，3例累及神经组织，未见淋巴结受累。免疫组织化学染色示4例P16、CD117、BCL2、P63、SMA均阳性，Ki67指数平均8%，TTF1和P53均阴性；4例中基底膜样物胶原Ⅳ阳性；组织化学染色示AB/PAS阳性。术后均接受总剂量为48~56 Gy的放疗，随访6~120个月，平均72.5个月，1例术后96个月复发，3例随访期间无复发及转移。结论　气管上段腺样囊性癌是罕见的原发于气管的低度恶性肿瘤，肿瘤生长缓慢，就诊时多数已侵及甲状腺组织，需要与原发于甲状腺的恶性肿瘤相鉴别，特别是在甲状腺穿刺及术中冰冻检查时。结合电子喉气管镜下表现、典型的形态学及免疫组织化学和组织化学染色有助于准确诊断。手术难以切除干净，术后放疗对延缓疾病复发有一定帮助。     

Why do small business butcher shops fail to fully implement HACCP?

This study aims to assess the degree of HACCP implementation in small business butcher shops and understand which factors most influence butchers' intention to fully implement it, through the application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. One hundred and one butchers managing or owning small butcher's responded to the interview regarding their Attitudes, Subjective Norm, Perceived Behavioural Control, Personal Norm, and Knowledge with regard to their Intention to fully implement a HACCP system in their shops. Before the interviews, a certified veterinarian visited all the shops. Visits included an inspection of the establishments using the Official Portuguese Control Plan checklist for meat retailers. Conformance level measured past performance regarding food safety practices. Based on past performance, butchers were divided into “high performers” and “low performers”. “High performers” yielded high values of Attitude and Intention towards the Behaviour. For these, Attitude and Personal Norm emerge as predictors of the Intention to fully implement a HACCP system. For “low performers”, Personal Norm was the strongest predictor of Intention, with results pointing to the need for an intervention from the authorities to promote increased conformance to food safety practices. For both groups, neither Social Norm nor Perceived Behavioural Control acted as significant predictors of Intention.     

A design of experiments investigation into dry separation using a Knelson Concentrator

Enhanced gravity, or centrifugal, separators have revolutionised gold processing over the past decades, significantly increasing the recovery of fine (−100 μm) free gold. One of the main drawbacks of centrifugal gravity concentrators is the large volume of water required (even if it is all recycled). With water becoming an ever increasingly important “commodity”, reducing this is of importance both from an environmental and a monetary point of view. This work investigated operating a laboratory scale Knelson Concentrator with a dry feed and using air as the fluidising medium. The feed used was a synthetic mixture of tungsten and quartz, used to mimic a gold ore. The response surface method and central composite design techniques were used to design the experiments and to model the results, with the experimental variables being the bowl speed (G-Level), air fluidising pressure and the feed rate. The models corresponded well to the experimental results, indicating that for this experimental setup, the optimal conditions were a bowl G-Level of 40 G, a feed rate of 220 g/min and an air fluidising pressure of 8 psi.     

Improved method for roadside barrier length of need modeling using real-world trajectories

The 2011 AASHTO Roadside Design Guide (RDG) contains perhaps the most widely used procedure for choosing an appropriate length of need (LON) for roadside barriers. However, this procedure has several limitations. The procedure uses a highly simplified model of vehicle departure, and the procedure does not allow designers to specify an explicit level of protection. A new procedure for choosing LON that addresses these limitations is presented in this paper. This new procedure is based on recent, real-world road departure trajectories and uses this departure data in a more realistic way. The new procedure also allows LON to be specified for a precisely known level of protection – a level which can be based on number of crashes, injury outcomes or even estimated crash cost – while still remaining straightforward and quick to use like the 2011 RDG procedure.