Calibrating hourly rainfall-runoff models with daily forcings for streamflow forecasting applications in meso-scale catchments

The absence of long sub-daily rainfall records can hamper development of continuous streamflow forecasting systems run at sub-daily time steps. We test the hypothesis that simple disaggregation of daily rainfall data to hourly data, combined with hourly streamflow data, can be used to establish efficient hourly rainfall-runoff models. The approach is tested on four rainfall-runoff models and a range of meso-scale catchments (150–3500 km²). We also compare our disaggregation approach to a method of parameter scaling that attains an hourly parameter-set from daily data.Simple disaggregation of daily rainfall produces hourly streamflow models that perform almost as well as those developed from hourly rainfall data. Rainfall disaggregation performs at least as well as parameter scaling, and often better. For the catchments and models we test, simple disaggregation is a very straightforward and effective way to establish hydrological models for continuous sub-daily streamflow forecasting systems when sub-daily rainfall data are unavailable.     

Comparing single- and two-segment statistical models with a conceptual rainfall-runoff model for river streamflow prediction during typhoons

This study examined various regression-based techniques and an artificial neural network used for streamflow forecasting during typhoons. A flow hydrograph was decomposed into two segments, rising and falling limbs, and the individual segments were modeled using statistical techniques. In addition, a conceptual rainfall–runoff model, namely the Public Works Research Institute (PWRI)-distributed hydrological model, and statistical models were compared. The study area was the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed in Southern Taiwan. The data used in this study comprised the observed watershed rainfalls, reservoir inflows, typhoon characteristics, and ground weather data. The forecast horizons ranged from 1 to 12 h. A series of assessments, including statistical analyses and simulations, was conducted. According to the improvements in errors, among single-segment statistical models, the multilayer perceptron achieved superior prediction accurary compared with the regression-based methods. However, the pace regression was the most favorable according to an evaluation of model complexity and accuracy. To examine the robustness of the results for forecast horizons varying from 1 to 12 h, statistical significance tests were performed for the single- and two-segment models. The prediction ability of the two-segment models was superior to that of the single-segment models. In addition, Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008 was considered in a comparison between the conceptual PWRI model output and that of the developed statistical models. The results showed that the PWRI model yielded the least favorable results.     

Parameter Estimation for Muskingum Models

A methodology for parameter estimation for the Muskingum model of streamflow routing is developed. The methodology minimizes the outflow prediction errors subject to the satisfaction of the streamflow-routing equations for all time stages in the routing process. The routing equations incorporate the Muskingum channel storage models. An algorithm is developed for parameter estimation that iteratively solves the governing equations to identify the Muskingum model parameters.     

Flow Upstream of Two-Dimensional Intakes

This study shows that the Schwarz-Christoffel transformation can be used to estimate the flow upstream of two-dimensional rectangular intakes having variable sizes and locations and for nozzle-shaped intakes. The predicted results are compared favorably with those from experiments and numerical solvers. Flow accelerates towards an intake, and identifying the flow acceleration region is important in fish entrainment studies. It is shown that flow acceleration region depends on water depth, location of intake, and intake size. The location of the peak velocity can deviate away from the centerline of the intake. For multiple intakes, it is shown that the peak velocity induced by each intake merges in a systematic manner and its final location depends on flow rates and relative distances between intakes and boundaries.     

Steady Streaming around a Circular Cylinder near a Plane Boundary due to Oscillatory Flow

Steady streaming due to an oscillatory flow around a circular cylinder close to and sitting on a plane boundary is investigated numerically. Two-dimensional (2D) Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are solved using a finite element method with a k-ω turbulent model. The flow direction is perpendicular to the axis of the cylinder. The steady streaming around a circular cylinder is investigated for Keulegan-Carpenter (KC) number of 2 ≤ KC ≤ 30 with a constant value of Stokes number (β) of 196. The gap (between the cylinder and the plane boundary) to diameter ratio (e/D) investigated is in the range of 0.0–3.0. The steady streaming structures and velocity distribution around the cylinder are analyzed in detail. It is found that the structures of steady streaming are closely correlated to KC regimes. The gap to diameter ratio (e/D) has a significant effect on the steady streaming structure when e/D<1.0. The magnitude of the steady streaming velocity around the cylinder can be up to about 70% of the velocity amplitude of the oscillatory flow. One three-dimensional (3D) simulation (KC = 10, β = 196, and e/D = ∞) is carried out to examine the effect of three dimensionality of the flow on the steady streaming. Although strong 3D vortices are found around the cylinder, the steady streaming in a cross section of the cylinder span is in good agreement with the 2D results.     

Case Study: Evaluation of Streamflow Partitioning Methods

Understanding water flow and its relative quantities through different pathways is vital for watershed management. Like many problems in hydrology, numbers of methods have been proposed for streamflow partitioning. Five methods were identified as being the most relevant and least input intensive. This study tested performance of these methods against separately measured surface and subsurface flow data from the coastal plain physiographic region of the southeastern United States. Separately measured surface and subsurface flow were collected for 12 years (1970–1981) in a field scale watershed by the Southeast Watershed Research Laboratory of the USDA-Agricultural Research Service. Results of comparative analysis indicated that Method IV performed the best. Results also indicated that accuracy of this method is highly dependent upon the proper estimation of the “fraction coefficient” that is based on many physical and hydrologic characteristics of the watershed. This study concluded that deterministic/empirical methods such as Boughton’s Method IV, require proper parameter value for increased accuracy.     

Size Distributions and Light Scattering Features of Minerogenic Particles in a Stream during Runoff Events

Inorganic (minerogenic) particles received from streams during runoff events cause undesirable increases in turbidity (Tn; i.e., the light scattering coefficient, b) in many lakes and reservoirs. Quantification of particle inputs in the context of turbidity impacts and representative light scattering calculations (submodel), the necessary components in the development of a mechanistic multiple particle class model to simulate these impacts, are described for Schoharie Creek, N.Y. Light scattering attributes of minerogenic particles, including number concentration (N), size distribution (PSD), composition, and projected area per unit volume (PAVm), are quantified for three runoff events through analyses by scanning electron microscopy interfaced with automated X-ray microanalysis and image analysis (SAX). The combined credibility of the light scattering submodel and SAX to represent the light scattering features of minerogenic particles is depicted by the consistency of calculated scattering efficiencies with theory and the strength of the reported Tn-PAVm relationship. Particles in the size range of 2–10?μm were responsible for b and Tn in the stream, with greater contributions by the larger particles of this range at elevated stream flows. Empirical relationships are developed to predict N and PSD from Tn or stream flow.     

Tracking changes in nutrient delivery to western Lake Erie: Approaches to compensate for variability and trends in streamflow

Tracking changes in stream nutrient inputs to Lake Erie over multidecadal time scales depends on the use of statistical methods that can remove the influence of year-to-year variability of streamflow but also explicitly consider the influence of long-term trends in streamflow. The methods introduced in this paper include an extended version of Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) modeling that explicitly considers nonstationary streamflow by incorporating information on changes in the frequency distribution of daily measured streamflow (discharge) over time. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) trends in annual flow-normalized fluxes (loads) at five long-term monitoring sites in the western Lake Erie drainage basin show increases of 109 to 322% over the period 1995 to 2015. About one-third of the increase appears attributable to increasing discharge trends, while the remaining two-thirds appears to be driven by changes in concentration versus discharge relationships reflecting higher concentrations for any given discharge during recent years. Trends in total phosphorus and three nitrogen parameters (total nitrogen, nitrate-nitrite, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen) at the 10 sites analyzed were much less pronounced, and commonly show decreases in concentration-discharge relationships accompanied by increases in discharge, resulting in little net change in total flux. Trends in monthly SRP fluxes and discharge, dissolved versus particulate fractions of nutrients, and N:P flux ratios were also evaluated. The methods described here provide tools to more clearly discern the effectiveness of nutrient-control strategies and can serve as ongoing measures of progress, or lack of progress, towards nutrient-reduction goals.     

Flow Depletion of Semipervious Streams Due to Unsteady Pumping Discharge

Analytical expressions for rate and volume of flow depletion of semipervious streams due to sinusoidal variation in pumping rate are obtained. An analytical but approximate method is developed for obtaining the rate and volume of stream flow depletion due to arbitrary unsteady pumping discharge. The method uses the ramp kernel and convolution. The use of ramp kernels permits linear interpolation between two consecutive discretized discharge values. The analytical equations for the ramp kernels for the rate and volume of stream flow depletion are derived. The proposed method is applicable for homogeneous and isotropic aquifers that are hydraulically connected to streams.     

Reynolds Stress in Open Channel Flow with Upward Seepage

Nonuniform-unsteady flow in open channels with streamwise sloping beds having uniform upward seepage is theoretically analyzed. Expressions for the Reynolds stress and bed shear stress are developed, assuming a modified logarithmic law of velocity profile due to upward seepage, and using the Reynolds and continuity equations of two-dimensional open channel flow. The computed Reynolds stress profiles are in agreement with the experimental data.