Use of climate scenarios to aid in decision analysis for interannual water supply planning

This work addresses the issue of climate change in the context of water resource planning on the time scale of a few years. Planning on this time scale generally ignores the role of climate change. However, where the climate of a region has already shifted, the use of historical data for planning purposes may be misleading. In order to test this, a case study is conducted for a region, the Australian Capital Territory, where long term drought is raising concerns of a possible climate shift. The issue is cast in terms of a particular planning decision; the option to augment water supply in the next few years to hedge against the drought persisting. A set of climate scenarios are constructed for the region corresponding to the historical climate regime and to regimes where progressively greater levels of change are assumed to have already taken place (5%, 10%, 20% reductions in mean rainfall). Probabilities of the drought persisting are calculated for each of the scenarios. The results show substantial increases in the probability of the drought persisting for even moderate reductions in mean rainfall. The sensitivity of the decision to augment supply to the scenario results depends ultimately on the planners tolerable thresholds for the probability of the drought persisting. The use of different scenarios enables planners to explore the sensitivity of the decision in terms of their risk tolerance to ongoing drought and to their degree of belief in each of the scenarios tested.     

调节对象参数和运动特性随工况变化的分析

水轮机调节对象的许多参数都是随运行工况变化的。以调节对象线性化模型为基础，从1个实例计算人手，计算了不同工况下水轮机传递系数和发电机6个参数的变化情况，进而计算这些参数变化对捌节对象特征根的影响。通过汁算表明，其水力振荡衰减速度与出力有关．而系统的其他运动特性随工况变化较小。     

Energetics of Plastic Deformation of Metastable Austenitic Stainless Steel

The change in the internal energy during uniaxial tensile deformation of austenitic stainless steels EN 1.4301 (AISI 304) and EN 1.4318 (AISI 301LN) was determined by measuring the extent of γ→α'‐martensite transformation and the temperature increase of the samples. From the results the fraction of the stored energy of cold work and the free energy change related to the strain‐induced γ→α'‐martensite transformation were determined. The fraction of stored energy varied around 0.4. With the metastable steel grades the free energy change related to the γ→α'‐martensite transformation was found to vary between ‐98 MJ/m³ and ‐206 MJ/m³ depending on the austenite stability of the steel. Furthermore, the magnitude of the mechanical driving force was estimated by comparing the results with the free energy change of thermally induced transformation.     

Phase-change thermal energy storage using spherical capsules: performance of a test plant

The aim of this paper is the study of an industrial process of energy storage usable for air conditioning or refrigeration, investigating a test plant which is a tank with a reduced size, filled with randomly dispersed commercial nodules, placed in a refrigeration loop. The nodules are spherical capsules in which phase change materials (PCM) are encapsulated. This test plant permits the study at length of the behaviour of the tank with, in particular, the charge mode taking into account the undercooling and the discharge mode. A simulation program that considers aspects of both the surrounding heat transfer fluid and the phase-change material packed inside the nodules is developed here in the cases of the charge and the discharge processes. The simulation results are then compared with experimental observations.     

Using airborne laser scanning to monitor tree migration in the boreal-alpine transition zone

The boreal tree line is expected to advance upwards into the mountains and northwards into the tundra due to global warming. The major objective of this study was to find out if it is possible to use high-resolution airborne laser scanner data to detect very small trees — the pioneers that are pushing the tree line up into the mountains and out onto the tundra. The study was conducted in a sub-alpine/alpine environment in southeast Norway. A total of 342 small trees of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and downy birch with tree heights ranging from 0.11 to 5.20 m were precisely georeferenced and measured in field. Laser data were collected with a pulse density of 7.7 m^− 2. Three different terrain models were used to process the airborne laser point cloud in order to assess the effects of different pre-processing parameters on small tree detection. Greater than 91% of all trees > 1 m tall registered positive laser height values regardless of terrain model. For smaller trees (< 1 m), positive height values were found in 5-73% of the cases, depending on the terrain model considered. For this group of trees, the highest rate of trees with positive height values was found for spruce. The more smoothed the terrain model was, the larger the portion of the trees that had positive laser height values. The accuracy of tree height derived from the laser data indicated a systematic underestimation of true tree height by 0.40 to 1.01 m. The standard deviation for the differences between laser-derived and field-measured tree heights was 0.11-0.73 m. Commission errors, i.e., the detection of terrain objects — rocks, hummocks — as trees, increased significantly as terrain smoothing increased. Thus, if no classification of objects into classes like small trees and terrain objects is possible, many non-tree objects with a positive height value cannot be separated from those actually being trees. In a monitoring context, i.e., repeated measurements over time, we argue that most other objects like terrain structures, rocks, and hummocks will remain stable over time while the trees will change as they grow and new trees are established. Thus, this study indicates that, given a high laser pulse density and a certain density of newly established trees, it would be possible to detect a sufficient portion of newly established trees over a 10 years period to claim that tree migration is taking place.     

程控电话交换机过电流保护元件用高性能PTC陶瓷的研制

阐述了高性能ＰＴＣ陶瓷材料制备的基本要点，并以基方固溶体化学组成、原材料选择、复合添加物改性以及特定烧结工艺等方面开展工作，制得了居里温度为９０℃左右、室温体积电阻率为３０Ω·ｃｍ，电阻率突变ρνｍａｘ／ρνｍｉｎ＞１０５、电阻率温度系数α≈１５％／℃、耐电压强度≥１５０Ｖ／ｍｍ的高性能ＰＴＣ陶瓷材料。此材料制得的元件能满足程控电话交换机过电流保护的要求。     

相变存储器存储单元瞬态电流测量

介绍了相变存储单元瞬态电流的测量方法。根据相变存储器的工作特性,利用微弱电流取样电阻测量法,合理选择测量参数测得了相变存储单元的瞬态电流,电阻与电流关系特性曲线和动态电阻。并根据测量电路等效电路模型分析影响测量的因素,估算出电路中的分布电容。     

Snowpack response in the Assiniboine-Red River basin associated with projected global warming of 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C

This study assesses snow response in the Assiniboine-Red River basin, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed, due to anthropogenic climate change. We use a process-based distributed snow model driven by an ensemble of eight statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to project future changes under policy-relevant global mean temperature (GMT) increases of 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C above the pre-industrial period. Results indicate that basin scale seasonal warmings generally exceed the GMT increases, with greater warming in winter months. The majority of GCMs project wetter winters and springs, and drier summers, while autumn could become either drier or wetter. An analysis of snow water equivalent (SWE) responses under GMT changes reveal higher correlations of snow cover duration (SCD), snowmelt rate, maximum SWE (SWE_max) and timing of SWE_max with winter and spring temperatures compared to precipitation, implying that these variables are predominantly temperature controlled. Consequently, under the GMT increases from 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C, the basin will experience successively shorter SCD, slower snowmelt, smaller monthly SWE and SWE_max, earlier SWE_max, and a transition from snow-dominated to rain-snow hybrid regime. Further, while the winter precipitation increases for some GCMs compensate the temperature-driven changes in SWE, the increases for most GCMs occur as rainfall, thus limiting the positive contribution to snow storage. Overall, this study provides a detailed diagnosis of the snow regime changes under the policy-relevant GMT changes, and a basis for further investigations on water quantity and quality changes.     

变化环境下韩江生态流量演变特征分析

选取位于粤东、闽西南地区的韩江流域为研究对象,基于CA-Markov模型对2050年流域土地利用空间格局进行预测,构建SWAT分布式水文模型,以未来土地利用情景和气候变化情景为变量进行水文模拟,分析不同情景下韩江生态流量的时空演变特征。结果表明,未来城镇化扩张将使梅江支流中上游成为韩江流域内生态流量对土地利用变化最为敏感的区域;土地利用和气候变化将导致韩江流域枯水期流量整体减小,枯水期流量对环境变化更加敏感;韩江流域生态流量变化特征将呈现从西南到东北由升到降的趋势,梅江支流中上游地区的生态流量将得到改善;梅江和汀江两大支流上游区域生态流量对气候变化更为敏感;韩江流域径流总量下降,但丰枯流量分化加剧,长期来看枯季生态流量保障风险可能进一步增大。