灰色预测模型在油气操作成本预测中的应用

油气操作成本是油气田生产消耗的主要项目，为了有效地控制油气操作成本，必须制定准确的油气操作成本计划。而油气操作成本在我国是最近几年才提出来的，数据项比较少，给油气操作成本预测带来一定的难度。为此，文章根据灰色预测的基本原理，采用灰色系统理论进行油气操作成本预测，就可以弥补对预测所需的数据少，而且也无须剔除不可比因素，只要所建模型能满足精度要求，预测结果就可以信赖。     

天然气产业链下游市场风险评价模型探讨

随着我国天然气主干管网的逐步形成，天然气产业链下游市场正在进入快速成长阶段，建立风险预警系统的重要性开始显现，而风险评价模型是其基础工作之一。文章在天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价指标体系的基础上，综合运用层次分析法和灰色系统理论，建立了对天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价的模型，并以各区域市场的用气量占全国总用气量的比重为权重，建立起完整的市场风险评价模型，可为评价天然气产业链下游市场整体市场风险时参考。     

波动方程数值模拟的隐式差分法

在有限差分波动方程数值模拟中,通常采用高阶差分方法来提高空间导数的数值逼近精度,以实现降低数值频散,提高数值模拟精度的目的。首先对差分频散进行了理论分析;然后讨论了估计一阶空间导数的隐式差分格式,并与通常采用的高阶精度显式差分格式进行了对比分析,结果表明,隐式差分格式能够在更宽的波数范围使差分频散控制在可接受的水平,如8阶精度的显式差分格式所适应的波数带宽约为O．55kmax,而隐式差分格式所适应的波数带宽约为0．7kmax;最后通过模型试算,对隐式差分格式的有效性进行了验证。模拟结果表明,用隐式差分格式在一定程度上降低了差分频散,提高了模拟精度。     

基于改进模糊综合评价法的水利工程社会评价研究

通过对水利工程社会评价及模糊综合评价法的介绍,讨论了模糊层次分析法中的一致性检验问题,并采用改进的模糊综合评价法对江垭水利枢纽工程进行社会评价,得到综合评价结果。     

On the effects of the packet size distribution on the packet loss process

Real-time multimedia applications have to use forward error correction (FEC) anderror concealment techniques to cope with losses in today’s best-effort Internet. The efficiency of these solutions is known however to depend on the correlation between losses in the media stream. In this paper we investigate how the packet size distribution affects the packet loss process, that is, the distribution of the number of lost packets in a block, the related FEC performance and the average loss run length. We present mathematical models for the loss process of the MMPP+M/D/1/K and the MMPP+M/M/1/K queues; we validate the models via simulations, and compare the results to simulation results with an MPEG-4 coded video trace. We conclude that the deterministic packet size distribution (PSD) not only results in lower stationary loss probability than the exponential one, but also gives a less correlated loss process, both at a particular average link load and at a particular stationary loss probability as seen by the media stream.Our results show that for applications that can only measure the packet loss probability, the effects of the PSD on FEC performance are higher in access networks, where a single multimedia stream might affect the multiplexing behavior. Our results show that the effects of the PSD on FEC performance are higher in access networks, where a single multimedia stream might affect the multiplexing behavior and thus can improve the queuing performance by decreasing the variance of its PSD.     

光电对抗仿真试验系统综述

论述了研制光电对抗仿真试验系统建设的目的和意义,光电武器系统的现状和发展趋势,介绍了光电对抗仿真试验系统的一般组成,给出了光电武器系统的常规试验内容和试验流程,并论述了可能采用的试验方法。     

DEA评价方法在超稠油生产经营中的应用探讨

超稠油的生产工艺非常复杂，影响油井效益的因素相对较多，因此对油井的评价就要评价各类有限资源投入的利用效果，查明积极因素和消极因素及其对经济指标的影响程度，促进经营管理的改善，寻求有效利用有限人力、物力、财力等资源的途径，实现资源的优化配置。本文通过使用DEA模型可对单井效益进行评价，对单井效益进行排队，对规模效益进行分类，对生产各投入因素进行投影分析，研究弱DEA、非DEA有效的原因，寻求对油井优化成本、提高效益的改进方案。     

天然水资源价值评估的能值方法及应用

本文从水资源的自然属性出发，提出了采用能值(Emergy)理论与方法研究天然水资源价值的新思路。论述了环境与自然资源定价的能值价值理论；根据水文循环与天然水资源基本特性，给出了水资源生成与能量转换的概念模型；从水的化学能角度提出了天然水资源价值的能值评估方法，包括理论方法与简化方法；并以我国南方某沿海县域为例进行了实际应用。实例表明，基于能值价值理论的天然水资源价值定量评估方法具有可行性。     

Computerized IR Determination of Structural Group Composition for High-Boiling Oil Fractions

A computerized form is given of IR spectral determination for structural group composition in high-boiling oil fractions by Berthold's method (7 structural elements) and Kuklinskii's method (28 structural elements), which reduces the analysis time by factors of 3–4 and improves the accuracy.     

A Bluetooth Based Sensor Network for Civil Infrastructure Health Monitoring

Communicating with sensors has long been limited either to wired connections or to proprietary wireless communication protocols. Using a ubiquitous and inexpensive wireless communication technology to create Sensor Area Networks (SANs) will accelerate the extensive deployment of sensor technology. Bluetooth, an emerging, worldwide standard for inexpensive, local wireless communication is a viable choice for SANs because of its inherent support for some of the important requirements – low power, small form factor, low cost and sufficient communication range. In this paper we outline an approach, centered on the Bluetooth technology, to support a sensor network composed of fixed wireless sensors for health monitoring of highways, bridges and other civil infrastructures. We present a topology formation scheme that not only takes into account the traffic generated by different sensors but also the associated link strengths, buffer capacities and energy availability. The algorithm makes no particular assumptions as to the placement of nodes, and not all nodes need to be in radio proximity of each other. The output is a tree shaped scatternet rooted at the sensor hub (data logger) that is balanced in terms of traffic carried on each of the links. We also analyze the scheduling, routing and healing aspects of the resulting sensor-net topology.