深圳市近57年来降水时空演变特征分析

分析区域降水的时空演变特征,对了解区域水文水资源未来情势变化、制定科学的水资源利用和防汛抗旱决策具有重要意义。基于1960—2016年共57年深圳市水文测站降水量系列资料,采用经验正交函数分解分析了深圳市年降水量的空间分布特征,并借助Mann-Kendall,Spearman非参数检验、累积距平和小波分析等多种方法,从趋势变化、突变特征和周期波动等方面研究年降水量时程演变特征,初步分析了变化成因。研究结果表明:57年来深圳市年降水量空间上具有较明显的两种分布型态,时程上不存在显著的趋势变化,但在局部时段上呈现出以1991年或2004年前后为突变点、先降后升的阶段性变化;深圳市年降水量普遍存在17~20年、5~7年的显著准周期,未来深圳区域年降水量在2016年之后将会维持一段时间的偏丰状态。     

白云峡水电站增效扩容水能复核及技改方案研究

为准确掌握白云峡水电站增效扩容潜力,确保技改方案具有较高安全可靠性和节能经济性,采用参证站径流资料分析与发电量反算引用流量相互验证的设计思路,对电站扩容潜力进行了水能复核。考虑 “引红济石”调水流量和小水电技改技术要求,合理确定了与工程实际相匹配的最佳装机容量、方案和机组型号。研究表明：通过鹦鸽水文站径流资料及电站多年运行发电量统计数据的核算与反算,可获得反映电站水能指标的准确数据。进行机型优化比选与合理技术改造,可确保机组长期运行在高效工况区,增加出力和防止空蚀,在增效扩容的同时实现了节能降耗。     

基于PCA-PSO-SVR 的丹江口水库年径流预报研究

在年径流预报中,气象因子之间的自相关会对预报精度产生影响。针对这个问题,将主成分分析(PCA)和粒子群优化(PSO)算法加入SVR模型中,建立了PCA-PSO-SVR预报模型,剔除冗余信息和噪声,提取因子间的主要特征,并选择模型的最优参数组合作为回归支持向量机(SVR)模型的输入。选择南水北调中线水源地丹江口水库为研究区,利用丹江口1981-2016年入库资料进行模型检验。结果表明,模型验证期间合格率为83.33%、距平一致率也达到83.33%,具有精度高稳定性强等优点,对丹江口水库年径流预报有一定的参考意义。     

保护炉衬的诺兰达炉炉结的高温控制爆破拆除

介绍了加拿大进口设备诺兰达炉炉结高温下控制爆破拆除的成功经验。在试验和实测的基础上 ,确定了合适的单孔药量 ,可避免支撑炉体的轴承以及炉衬的破坏。通过选择合理的爆破方案、适宜的爆破器材、新型的隔热材料、优化的爆破参数和可靠的起爆网路 ,实现了高温 (4 0 0℃ )下诺兰达炉炉结的快速 (3d)拆除     

An analysis of characteristic discharges for the Adaim River (Iraq) in multiyear period

A major River Tigris tributary in Iraq, the Adaim River, has a Mediterranean river flow regime with a total basin area of 12,482 km². The river catchment responds almost immediately to rainfall with apparently minimum storage (i.e. flashy stream). The river daily hydrograph showed a daily peak flow of 1,476 m³/s with substantial seasonal and random variability; the flow duration curve followed the two‐parameter lognormal probability distribution. Gamma and the two‐parameter Weibull probability distributions fitted the monthly mean river discharge for the period 1937–2012 well. Normal and gamma probability distributions were found to appropriately describe the distribution of the annual mean river discharge for the same period. Gumbel extreme value, Log Pearson type III, and the two‐parameter lognormal distributions gave a reasonable fit to the annual maximum discharge record for the river. A regression formula was used to fit the annual minimum discharge record, which has a significant number of zero values. There was a positive and significant correlation (r = 0.77) between the annual mean discharge at the measuring site and seasonal rainfall measured at Karkuk meteorological station located in the north central part of the basin. The rainfall record at Karkuk showed a significant decline in seasonal rainfall after 1993.     

黄河河龙区间年输沙量对水土保持的响应机理研究

采用多元逐步回归分析方法,分析研究1954-2013年河龙区间年输沙量对水土保持的响应机理。结果表明,不同时段计算得出的年输沙量响应回归方程相关系数均达到α为0.001的高显著性水平,随水土保持治理度的提高,河龙区间年输沙量对水土保持治理度的响应敏感性增加,显著程度提高;水土保持治理对减少高降雨产沙的效果明显;随着水土保持治理度的提高,河龙区间年输沙量对相同降雨条件响应的敏感程度减弱。     

厄瓜多尔水资源规划中农业灌溉保证标准的选取

灌溉设计保证标准是灌溉工程规划设计中的一项重要指标,它直接影响着工程的规模、投资费用和效益。灌溉设计标准通常表现为灌溉设计保证率和经济内部收益率、经济净现值等经济指标。在厄瓜多尔共和国水资源规划中,通过对世界主要国家的农业灌溉保证率标准进行对比分析,确定了该国的农业灌溉保证率标准。应用该标准对厄瓜多尔全国九大流域灌区的水资源配置进行了规划。结果表明,厄瓜多尔全国灌区在规划水平年达到目标灌溉保证率的条件下,农业灌溉用水量和经济分析均合理,说明所确定的厄瓜多尔农业灌溉保证率标准具有合理性和可行性。     

The Role of Reservoirs in Shaping The Dominant Cyclicity And Energy Of Mountain River Flows

The main objective of the paper is to determine the role of mountain reservoirs in shaping the dominant cyclicity and energy of river flows. The paper compares a large complex composed of two reservoirs (Czorsztyn–Sromowce Wy?ne) with a smaller reservoir (Besko). These reservoirs are located in the Polish Carpathians and are characterised by very different parameters and functions. Moreover, they operate on rivers (the Dunajec and the Wis?ok) with different hydrologic regimes. Using Fourier spectral analysis of daily inflows, outflows and water levels in reservoirs for the period 1998–2012, it has been possible to identify the dominant frequencies of the considered time series with a percentage of spectral energy for these frequencies. Moreover, for signals created by river flow rates, changes in signal energy are associated with adequate changes in river energy. Therefore, by calculating the energy of the signal in the time domain, changes in signal energy can be observed before and after the water passes through the reservoir. Data on cyclicity of water levels in these reservoirs forms the background to the analysis of reservoir‐induced changes in cyclicity of river flows. The conducted analysis revealed that reservoirs strengthen the regularity of the annual periodicity of stream flow in the studied rivers. Besides, these reservoirs significantly reduce the energy of water flowing out of them compared to the energy of inflow. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

试述160万吨/年重油催化裂化的运行

通过标定,对原料性质、操作条件、产品分布和产品质量数据进行全面分析,总结了大港石化分公司160万吨/年重油催化裂化装置改造后的运行情况,基本达到了装置扩能效果。     

基于WA-GRNN模型的年径流预测

针对传统的中长期水文预测方法由于缺乏对水文要素本身内部结构和变化特性的描述,往往导致建模过程中确定模型结构、参数等存在盲目性,而以往常用预测模型收敛速度较慢、模型结构及参数优化复杂等问题。本文将小波分析（WA）和GRNN神经网络联合使用,建立了中长期水文预测模型：即先应用WA揭示水文序列内部结构及变化特性,从而将原序列分为确定性成分和随机成分两部分,然后利用GRNN神经网络对确定性成分和随机成分分别进行模拟预测,最后将两部分结果叠加作为最终预测值。将该模型用于沱江中上游三皇庙水文站年径流的预测,并与传统方法进行对比。结果显示该模型预测效果较传统方法更好,能有效地揭示序列的时频结构和变化特性,对于生产应用具有较强的实际意义。