基于暴雨洪水管理模型的下凹绿地和透水路面模拟研究

以南京某小区为研究区域,采用暴雨洪水管理模型,模拟研究区域进行下凹绿地和透水路面改造后对区域内地面径流情况的影响。模拟结果表明,下凹绿地和透水路面均可有效消减地面总径流量和峰值流量,减小径流系数,同时改善研究区域的地下水环境。通过进一步改变下凹绿地和透水路面在模型中的规模后可知:下凹绿地面积占小区总面积的比例不应低于30%;透水路面面积占总面积的比例不应低于20%。     

基于LBA-PP模型的年径流丰枯分类

针对年径流丰枯特性同时取决于径流本身大小和年内时程分配的特点,利用一种基于Lévy飞行策略改进的蝙蝠算法(Lévy Bat Algorithm,LBA)搜索投影寻踪模型(Projection Pursuit,PP)最佳投影方向a,提出LBA-PP年径流丰枯分类模型,并构建粒子群优化(Particle Swarm Optimization,PSO)算法-PP模型,与LBA-PP年径流丰枯分类模型对比,以云南省西洋站为例进行实例研究。结果表明LBA算法寻优能力优于PSO算法,具有较高的收敛精度、较好的稳健性能和全局寻优能力。利用LBA算法寻优PP模型最佳投影方向a,不但提高了PP模型的分类精度,而且为PP模型最佳投影方向的选取提供了新的途径和方法。LBA-PP模型同时考虑了年径流大小及年内时程分配信息,其分类结果较常规方法更科学、客观。     

长江上游径流对气象要素变化的敏感性分析

选取长江上游8个主要水文站(直门达、石鼓、屏山、高场、北碚、寸滩、武隆、宜昌)控制流域作为子流域,利用其1979—2015年径流及气象数据,采用机器学习方法计算径流对降水与气温变化的敏感性,并与多元线性回归法和Budyko框架法进行对比,分析降水与气温变化对径流变化的贡献。结果表明：1979—2015年8个子流域径流与降水变化趋势整体不显著(p=0.01),气温呈显著上升趋势(p<0.01);径流对降水、气温的敏感性系数均值范围分别为0.37～0.76 mm/mm、-4.77～-33.53 mm/℃;径流对降水、气温的敏感性系数随着干旱指数的增大而减小;在干旱指数大的子流域降水变化对径流变化的影响更大,在干旱指数小的子流域气温变化对径流变化的影响更大。     

Exploring the future impacts of urbanization and climate change on groundwater in Arusha,Tanzania

ABSTRACT

We combine satellite imagery, urban growth modelling, groundwater modelling and hydrogeological field expeditions to estimate the potential impacts in 2050 of rapid urbanization and climate change on groundwater in Arusha, Tanzania, and by extension similar areas in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our analysis suggests that a reduction of groundwater recharge by 30–44% will cause groundwater levels to drop by up to 75 m, mainly due to increased evapotranspiration and to an expansion in paved surface. If this scenario becomes reality, we predict that wells will run dry, creating health, social and environmental risks.     

基于小波分析的丹江口水库水文年度入库径流变化特征

根据丹江口水库运行调度的实践,采用Morlet小波函数,对丹江口水库水文年度、汛期和非汛期的径流时间序列进行小波分析,揭示了丹江口水库入库径流多时间尺度的复杂结构,并分析了不同尺度下径流序列的周期变化和突变点。研究结果表明：水文年度、汛期、非汛期入库径流序列都存在9,20,40,50a的主要周期,并且水文年度入库径流与汛期径流具有相似的周期演变特征。研究成果可供丹江口水库运行调度参考。     

人类开采活动影响下的衡水地区地下水水质特征及演化

衡水地区地下水普遍存在"上咸下淡"的水质格局,受深部淡水持续超采影响,浅层咸水有逐年下移而使淡水咸化的趋势。选择衡水地区典型剖面,通过水质长期监测,结合地下水开采情况,分析2011至2014年该剖面上地下水水位与水质监测资料,总结了衡水地区地下水水化学特征及其演化规律。研究结果表明,浅层含水层中水平径流微弱,地下水水质由西向东逐渐好转,其中西部地下水离子浓度变化较大;深部含水层中水平径流明显,地下水水质整体良好,但有逐年恶化的趋势;人类开采活动一定程度上增强了浅层和深层含水层间的水力联系,使二者中离子浓度随时间的波动呈现出一定的相关性。     

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals: improving water services in cities affected by extreme weather events

Abstract

This article discusses how key risks from extreme weather events might affect progress towards meeting Sustainable Development Goals 6 and 11 in cities in developing countries. It outlines the magnitude of the existing shortfall in safe water and sanitation services, and how climate change will exacerbate existing problems. It argues that the performance of many governments thus far has lacked urgency and purpose. Unless governments in particular become more committed, with redoubled effort, the goals are unlikely to be achieved.     

贵州省1960-2014年降水量时空变化特征分析

基于贵州省1960-2014年19个气象站点的降水观测数据,采用一元线性回归拟合、累计距平、MannKendall突变检验等方法,分析贵州省55年的年、最大月降水量的时空变化规律。结果表明:贵州省1960-2014年年均降水量总体呈南多北少的空间分布格局,以-17. 815 mm/10a的变化率在逐年减少,自20世纪80年代以来变化尤其不稳定;岩溶槽谷降水量的增加趋势明显,而岩溶盆地下降趋势明显,岩溶峡谷、岩溶槽谷和非喀斯特区在近几年来的降水量较不稳定;贵州省降水受地形地貌和季风的影响显著,逐年明显的极端气候对农作物的生长和社会经济发展存在不利影响。研究结果对贵州省短期气候预测、制定旱涝灾害预警机制和合理利用水资源等具有重要意义。     

尼尔基水库枯季径流预报方法分析

利用尼尔基水库52 a径流资料,分析了前后期径流（流量）相关法在尼尔基水库枯季径流预报中的适用情况,认为10月31日平均流量与11月至次年3月的径流量相关性较好,可用于尼尔基水库枯水期径流预报。     

Tributary confluences are dynamic thermal refuges for a juvenile salmonid in a warming river network

As rivers warm, cold‐water fish species may alleviate thermal stress by moving into localized thermal refuges such as cold‐water plumes created by cool tributary inflows. We quantified use of two tributary confluence plumes by juvenile steelhead, Oncorhynchus mykiss, throughout the summer, including how trout positioned themselves in relation to temperature within confluence plumes. At two confluences, Cedar and Elder creeks, along the South Fork Eel River, California, USA, we monitored temperatures using in situ logger grids throughout summer 2016. Fish were counted within confluences via snorkel surveys five times a day on 5 days at each site. We found diel and seasonal dependence on confluence use by steelhead, especially at the Cedar Creek confluence, where mainstem temperatures exceeded 28°C. At this site, fish moved into the confluence on the warmest days and warmest times of the day. Fish observed within the Cedar Creek confluence plume were most common in locations between 20–22°C, rather than the coldest locations (14.5°C). At Elder Creek, where mainstem temperatures remained below 24°C, there was little relationship between mainstem temperature and steelhead presence in the confluence plume. At both sites, steelhead distribution within plumes was influenced by spatial variation of temperature and mean temperature in surveyed grid cells. Our results show that cool tributaries flowing into warmer mainstem reaches (over 24°C) likely create important thermal refuges for juvenile steelhead. As mainstem rivers warm with climate change, cool‐water tributary inputs may become more important for sustaining cold‐water salmonids near the southern end of their range.