Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts

Forecasts by rational agents contain embedded initial and terminal boundary conditions. Standard time series models generate two types of long-run boundary values or steady-state 'endpoints' – fixed endpoints and moving average endpoints. Neither can explain the shifting endpoints implied by postwar movements in the cross-section of forward rate forecasts in the term structure or by post-1979 changes in survey estimates of expected long-run inflation. Multiperiod forecasts by a broader class of 'moving endpoint' time series models provide substantially improved tracking of the historical term structure and generally support the internal consistency of the ex ante long-run expectations of bond traders and survey respondents.     

分形粗糙面的电磁散射－扩展边界条件

用扩展边界条件方法对分形粗糙良导体面及介质面的电磁散射问题进行了分析。用推广的Floquet模式，在分界面处将场分量用Fourier级数展开，根据边界条件及扩展边界条件得到了水平极化和垂直极化散射场的幅度分量的表达式。用其它近似方法（Kirchhoff和Rayleigh方法）及能量守恒准则验证了此方法的有效性。     

河口水流、波浪、潮流、泥沙、河床变形二维数学模型

根据河口“波浪掀沙，潮流输沙”的泥沙运动机制，引入“波浪幅射应力”反应波浪对水体和泥沙的驱动力．考虑波浪对底部泥沙作用力、波浪对水流挟沙能力的影响及风场对水流和泥沙运动的影响．同时考虑泥沙粒径大小、水体含盐度、含沙量及水流紊动程度等因素对絮凝沉速的影响．用ＡＤＩ算法求解沿水深平均方程，破开算子法解悬移质不平衡输沙方程及河床变形方程，引入通度概念处理岸滩不规则边界，建立河口水流、波浪、潮流、泥沙、河床变形二维数学模型．通过实测资料及卫星摇感图像对所建数学模型进行检验，表明它可以较好地预测河口泥沙的运动     

NUMERICAL MODEL FOR DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF TRAFFIC FLOW

ＮＵＭＥＲＩＣＡＬＭＯＤＥＬＦＯＲＤＹＮＡＭＩＣＳＩＭＵＬＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＴＲＡＦＦＩＣＦＬＯＷＷｕＺｈｅｎｇ；ＺｅｎｇＬｉ－ｎｏｎｇ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔＡｐｐｌｉｅｄＭｅｃｈａｎｉｃｓ，ＦｕｄａｎＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ，Ｓｈａｇｈａｉ２００４３３，Ｐ...     

A semi-analytic boundary element method for parabolic problems

A new semi-analytic solution method is proposed for solving linear parabolic problems using the boundary element method. This method constructs a solution as an eigenfunction expansion using separation of variables. The eigenfunctions are determined using the dual reciprocity boundary element method. This separation of variables-dual reciprocity method (SOV-DRM) allows a solution to be determined without requiring either time-stepping or domain discretisation. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the SOV-DRM is found to improve as time increases. These properties make the SOV-DRM an attractive technique for solving parabolic problems.     

灌河潮流界位置确定与港口防淤探讨

盐城市位于江苏省中部,地处黄海之滨,承接里下河腹部区的排水,区内入海河流众多,在这些入海河流上大多建有挡潮闸坝。但由于盐城市近海为淤积型海岸,闸坝的建设改变了河口的自然状态,造成港口下游淤积严重,排水不畅。灌河作为江苏省沿海唯一下游没有建挡潮闸的重要入海河流,仍为自然状态,下游港口未淤积。本文通过对灌河水体涨、落潮中氯离子含量的监测,找出海水上溯的最大距离,确定其影响范围,为其它入海流河流的防淤提供借鉴。     

TBM地区低孔渗高产气储层预测

 本文从TBM地区目的层的地质和地球物理特征分析出发，以三维地震资料为基础，综合利用人工和神经网络波形分类等定性储层预测方法和利用反演及敏感地震属性分析，对TBM地区低孔渗砂岩分布区开展了砂体展布特征分析和天然气高产区预测研究。根据研究结果部署了10口钻井，已完钻的4口井中有3口获得高产气流（其中DK27井日产天然气36.8×10⁴m³）。值得指出的是，目前所用的预测方法还不能预测厚度小于6m的单砂层或砂层组构成的储层。     

三维精细积分法地震正演及边界条件

 将任意差分精细积分法用于三维波动方程地震正演，关键在于如何消除数值计算中有限波场区域边界引起的边界反射。文中采用Berenger给出的电磁波完全匹配层吸收边界条件，推导出三维波动方程任意差分精细积分法地震正演的完全匹配层吸收边界条件计算公式，并给出了完全匹配层吸收边界条件算例。计算结果表明，此方法压制边界反射效果明显。三维波动方程地震正演模拟实例表明，完全匹配层吸收边界条件的任意差分精细积分法为复杂区地震波传播规律研究提供了一种实用的正演模拟工具     

Effect of pH on the Crystallization of Homogeneously Precipitated Nanosized PZT Powder

Nanosized lead zirconate titanate (PZT) powder with Zr:Ti ratio in the morphotropic phase boundary region was synthesized by homogeneous precipitation of metal ions. The powder precipitated at 90°C and at pH 6.7 resulted single-phase perovskite lead zirconate titanate powder when calcined at 550°C and above for 4 hours in air. The solution pH and the precipitation temperature strongly affect the composition of the calcined powder. The results obtained by structural characterization of homogeneously precipitated powder were compared with that obtained from the conventional precipitation method using ammonia in terms of crystallization, homogeneity, and microstructure. The homogeneously precipitated powder showed smaller particle size, minimum agglomeration and uniform shape on calcination and annealing. Powdered samples that precipitated by homogeneous precipitation crystallized directly to perovskite PZT, without any intermediate pyrochlore phase formation. In contrast, the NH₃ precipitated powder converted to perovskite PZT via metastable pyrochlore and it showed phase segregation upon annealing at higher temperatures. The reaction kinetics has been studied by X-ray diffraction, differential thermal analysis, and differential scanning calorimetry.     

Flow Control Through the Use of Topography

In this work, optimal shaft shapes for flow in the annular space between a rotating shaft with axially-periodic radius and a fixed coaxial outer circular cylinder, are investigated. Axisymmetric steady flows in this geometry are determined by solving the full Navier-Stokes equations in the actual domain. A measure of the flow field, a weighted convex combination of the volume averaged square of the L₂-norm of the velocity and vorticity vectors, is employed. It has been demonstrated that boundary shape can be used to influence the characteristics of the flow field, such as its velocity component distribution, kinetic energy, or even vorticity. This ability to influence flow fields through boundary shape may be employed to improve microfluidic mixing or, possibly, to minimize shear in biological applications.