因果关系,贝叶斯网络与认知图

因果关系在预测和推理中具有重要的作用.贝叶斯网络已被用于构建诊断和决策系统.近年来模糊认知图得到了重视.模糊认知图为结构性知识与因果推理提供了又一个理论框架.本文简单介绍贝叶斯网络与认知图及其推理方法在智能系统中的应用.     

基于FRAM的化工装置事故情景推演研究

由于过程风险态势高、安全管控难度大，化工装置易发生非计划停车停产、有毒有害物质泄漏以及火灾爆炸等事故，给社会、经济和环境造成了巨大的负面影响。事故致因模型是解决事故情景构建与推演问题的重要工具，但传统模型无法全面捕捉系统要素间的非线性交互关系或者拘泥于系统要素错误的原因分析及其消除措施的有效制定。因此，本工作引入功能共振分析方法(FRAM)，从整体系统的功能特征角度对化工装置事故情景开展推演研究。FRAM通过识别和描述基本功能、评估各功能的性能变化、确定功能共振的可能性以及制定性能变化的响应措施等步骤，能够深入回溯事故发生过程和演化情景，从而揭示化工装置事故的致因机理、挖掘化工装置的薄弱环节。以BP德克萨斯炼油厂爆炸事故为例，研究结果表明，该事故的主要原因是液位计B2、高液位报警器B3、加热炉S2和换热器S3产生了功能共振，从而引发了8种共振影响因素，并导致了12种功能失效连接。与时间与事件序列图(STEP)、事故地图(AcciMap)的分析结果进行了对比，验证了FRAM用于化工装置事故情景推演的可行性、有效性和合理性。     

高校“空巢老人”工作探究

分析高校“空巢老人”形成的主要原因、心理特点和生活处境,从“空巢老人”子女、高校、社会等角度,探索做好高校“空巢老人”工作的应对策略。文章认为,应建立“空巢老人”档案,实行重点帮扶;加大“空巢老人”的精神自助教育和安全保护教育力度;完善教职工生活区的服务体系;建造高校老年公寓,让需要帮助的高校“空巢老人”入住老年公寓。     

State of science: occupational slips,trips and falls on the same level*

Occupational slips, trips and falls on the same level (STFL) result in substantial injuries worldwide. This paper summarises the state of science regarding STFL, outlining relevant aspects of epidemiology, biomechanics, psychophysics, tribology, organisational influences and injury prevention. This review reaffirms that STFL remain a major cause of workplace injury and STFL prevention is a complex problem, requiring multi-disciplinary, multi-faceted approaches. Despite progress in recent decades in understanding the mechanisms involved in STFL, especially slipping, research leading to evidence-based prevention practices remains insufficient, given the problem scale. It is concluded that there is a pressing need to develop better fall prevention strategies using systems approaches conceptualising and addressing the factors involved in STFL, with considerations of the full range of factors and their interactions. There is also an urgent need for field trials of various fall prevention strategies to assess the effectiveness of different intervention components and their interactions.

Practitioner Summary: Work-related slipping, tripping and falls on the same level are a major source of occupational injury. The causes are broadly understood, although more attention is needed from a systems perspective. Research has shown preventative action to be effective, but further studies are required to understand which aspects are most beneficial.     

北京城区内涝积滞水成因分析与对策建议

随着北京城市化的发展,不透水地面面积不断增加,导致汛期城市防洪排水体系排水能力与城市区域外排水量不匹配,造成城区局部严重内涝积滞水。究其原因,可以概括为极端天气、下垫面属性改变、设计缺陷以及河道未治理等。在此基础上,建议采取泵站提升等工程措施以及模型分析等非工程措施,旨在有针对性地进行防治。     

Whole-body vibration-related health disorders in occupational medicine – an international comparison

Workers with whole-body vibration (WBV) exposure are likely to report non-specific health complaints. Health and safety providers may not recognise such occupational injuries and may be unfamiliar with appropriate exposure assessment and prevention. This is a review of clinical studies, medical evidence, differential diagnostic evaluation protocols, surveillance programmes, national and international standards, and interventions recommendations utilising PubMed and other online resources. In summary, several studies show a clear trend: with increasing duration and intensity of occupational WBV exposure, primarily musculoskeletal or neurological disorders of the spine occur. Other organ damage has also been reported. In some European Union countries, spinal injury caused by WBV is recognised as an occupational disease and may be compensable. The WBV-related injury diagnosis includes a review of the work history, exposure assessment and differential diagnostic evaluation. WBV health surveillance should assess health status of WBV-exposed workers and address preventive measures.     

济南泉水水化学特征变异研究

以采集的泉水及泉域岩溶水样品水化学测试数据为基础,利用地下水循环及水文地球化学理论,通过与大量历史资料对比及水文地质条件分析,研究了济南泉水水化学变异特征,探讨了引起泉水变异的原因,目的在于保护济南泉水水质,遏止泉水变异趋势。通过研究分析认为,济南泉水水化学近50多年来发生较大变异,变异原因主要是保护不当,人为污染所致。     

基于模糊综合评价的建筑安全管理研究

在分析建筑企业安全管理相关理论的基础上,从管理者的视角构建了建筑企业安全管理评价指标体系.通过介绍建筑安全评价指标的内容和关系,以与最优和最劣对象距离之和最小为目标,运用遗传算法确定了指标权重,用模糊隶属赋值方法确定了隶属度,进而对建筑企业安全管理状况做出模糊综合评价,最后以天津市建筑企业为实例加以说明并进行了比较分析.     

INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS OF ACCIDENT CAUSATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

kACMS (KOSHA Accident Causation Management System) has been developed to control human errors in Korean chemical industries. kACMS is a safety management system using the Korean GFT (general failure type) methodology, which has been found a good approach to eliminating, or at least minimizing human errors. To observe the trend of human errors in the chemical industry, about 5500 near-miss cases have been collected from a Korean chemical plant. The analysis of the collected cases shows that the removal of human errors is the key to preventing these near-miss cases that have the potential to lead to actual accidents.

A Korean petrochemical company applied kACMS in its 9 chemical plants. Fifty-five employees participated in the survey and 12,000 safety data were collected based on a questionnaire. As a result of each survey, the average, best, and worst scores were 85.0, 90.6, and 79.6, respectively. These results led to a thorough investigation of the safety systems of the worst scored plant and directions for improving safety.     

网络英语新词的形成途径及成因探微

英语作为一种不断发展的语言,每天都有新词的诞生。在各类新词汇中网络英语词汇占的比例最大。文章从网络英语的定义着手,以词汇学视角对网络英语新词的形成途径及成因进行分析,认为密切把握英语词汇发展的最新动向,可以增加词汇量,让网络更好地为教学、科研服务。