交通事故致因分析的贝叶斯网络建模

综合运用相关性分析方法和K2算法进行了贝叶斯网络的结构学习,并应用贝叶斯参数估计方法进行了贝叶斯网络的参数学习,建立了交通事故致因分析的贝叶斯网络。应用已建网络分析了各因素对事故严重程度的影响,推理学习了改善交通控制方式在降低交通事故严重程度方面起到的作用。研究结果表明,基于贝叶斯网络建立的交通事故致因分析模型预测精度较高,而且可以应用于影响事故严重程度的因素分析,并在此基础上考察如何采取优化措施改善交通安全。     

古城水库帷幕灌浆防渗能力衰减原因分析与对策研究

介绍了古城水库4次帷幕灌浆和帷幕防渗能力衰减的情况,从7个方面分析了帷幕防渗能力衰减的原因:浆液水灰比,设计因素,施工工艺,水库水位,环境水侵蚀,淤积减渗作用,不良地质条件。对照以上原因对古城水库4次帷幕灌浆进行了分析,提出了今后帷幕灌浆的改进建议。分析方法可为类似工程提供借鉴。     

Causation and its effect: the blackguard in CAD's clothing

This paper addresses one of the basic assumptions to underpin current design theory in general and computer-aided design research in particular. It is the notion of causation. An argument is presented that design hinges on an understanding of the dependencies and interrelationships which uniquely structure each design problem. Unfortunately ‘structure’ appears to be being interpreted by the wider research community in simple cause and effect terms; possibly because it then merges extremely well within computer technologies such as the expert system. Studies have shown, however, that taking such an over-simplistic view of causation poses fundamental problems. These problems have the potential completely to undermine much of current design research.     

Just so stories and inference to the best explanation in evolutionary psychology

Evolutionary psychology is a science in the making, working toward the goal of showing how psychological adaptation underlies much human behavior. The knee-jerk reaction that sociobiology is unscientific because it tells just-so stories has become a common charge against evolutionary psychology as well. My main positive thesis is that inference to the best explanation is a proper method for evolutionary analyses, and it supplies a new perspective on the issues raised in Schlinger's (1996) just-so story critique. My main negative thesis is that, like many nonevolutionist critics, Schlinger's objections arise from misunderstandings of the evolutionary approach.Evolutionary psychology has progressed beyond telling just-so stories. It has found a host of ingenious special techniques to test hypotheses about the adaptive significance and proximate mechanisms of behavior. Naturalistic data using the comparative method combined with controlled tests using statistical analyses of data provide good evidence for a variety of hypotheses about behavioral control mechanisms — whether in nonhumans or in humans. For instance, the work of Gangestad and Thornhill on evolved mate preferences and fluctuating asymmetry of body type (FA) is a model of success. As the quantity and quality of evidence increase, we are entitled not just to regard such evolutionary hypotheses as preferable, but also as true. Such studies combine to show that the best explanation of the psychic unity of humankind — common patterns across societies, history, and cultures exposed by evolutionists — is the gendered, adapted, evolved species-typical design of the mind.     

Drivers' errors in,and out of,context

Error depends for its definition, commission, and the seriousness of its consequences on the circumstances in which it occurs. As such, it is argued, in this overview of a large number of contemporary papers on (driver) error, that an erroneous act is only a useful index of behaviour where the background to that act is properly understood. The role of error in the development of skill, and its relationship to accident causation and risk-taking is discussed from this point of view.     

Modeling safe and unsafe driving behaviour

A sample of 743 Dutch drivers was queried about driving-related errors and violations, and about the frequency of their accident involvement over the past 3 years. In addition, the following risky behaviours and characteristics related to driving were measured through self-report: strategic decisions made about driving before starting a trip, attitudes related to committing violations, psychological precursors of unsafe driving (such as being tired or stressed when driving), and physical precursors of unsafe driving (suffering physical or psychological handicaps when driving). The results show that several scales have acceptable reliability coefficients, though several others are in need of improvement. Path analysis showed that an acceptable structural model could be developed to describe all empirical relationships. Considerable parts of the variance in the violations scores and the psychological precursors scores could be explained by the other model variables. In terms of predictive power, "unsafe" attitudes, physical precursors, and psychological precursors had the most impact, each explaining up to 9% of the variance in violations scores, errors scores, and/or psychological precursors scores. The way these results can be utilized in future accident prevention programs and in driver training programs are indicated, as are their implications for future research.     

黑龙江中游右岸中兴及同仁段塌岸分析及防护措施

分析了黑龙江中游右岸中兴、同仁段塌岸现状、成因及危害,提出了防护措施。     

开阔水域船舶碰撞频率建模及应用

船舶碰撞频率可用潜在碰撞船舶数与致事故系数乘积表示。以往潜在碰撞船舶数计算模型对船舶动态因素考虑较少,基于交通冲突技术,通过构建动态船舶领域模型、设计碰撞冲突判断标准算法、使用船舶碰撞冲突数代替潜在碰撞船舶数,提出一种开阔水域船舶碰撞频率模型。结果表明,台湾海峡碰撞频率高发区位于牛山岛(24°46.8'N~25°30.0'N)、兄弟屿(23°22.8'N~25°49.2'N)和厦门湾口(24°08.4'N~24°33.6'N)这3个海域。研究海域船舶碰撞频率为5.068 7起/年、与目标海域15年商船平均碰撞频率4.866 7起/年高度吻合。研究发现交叉冲突是台湾海峡船舶碰撞冲突主要类型,而夜间发生船舶碰撞频率2.787 0起/年,高于白天2.281 7起/年。该模型为计算船舶碰撞频率提供一种新方法,也为后续研究船舶碰撞定量风险评估提供基础数据。     

1998 年盛夏 7、8 月嫩江流域暴雨天气成因分析

分析了１９９８年盛夏７、８月嫩江流域暴雨天气成因。     

EBDCs杀菌剂及代谢物ETU的毒理学研究进展

乙撑双二硫代氨基甲酸酯(EBDCs)是一类非内吸性杀菌剂,这类杀菌剂如代森锰锌、代森锰等,广泛用于马铃薯、谷物、苹果、梨和叶菜作物。概述了EBDCs类杀菌剂在环境中的移动、残留、降解、代谢、代谢物,评价了其急性毒性、慢性作用、致癌风险和毒理学研究进展。