基于云概率密度分布估计的大坝监测数据分析

大坝运行监测易受自然环境和监测条件影响，存在时间和空间上的变异性，监测数据具有不确定性。以云理论的随机性和不确定性分析方法为基础，并与空间数据辐射思想相结合，建立了云滴概率密度分布估计模型，然后导出云概率密度分布函数，依据样本监测数据推求母体空间数据的分布特征，并设计了基于逆向云算法云变换的计算程序。分析陆浑水库1979~1999年测压管监测数据和位移变形数据的云概率密度分布特征和云数字特征，得出了20 a来大坝的数据分布特征和运行状态。监测数据分析结果表明，云概率密度分布估计不仅能有效合理地分析大坝的运行状态，而且能够依据云数字特征来判断监测状态和监测环境的异常变化。      

腹腔手术后重症患者心肌损伤的危险因素

目的探讨腹腔手术后重症患者心肌损伤的发生情况及可能的危险因素。方法回顾性分析北京大学人民医院2017年1月至2019年1月腹腔手术后重症患者的一般临床资料及心肌损伤情况,收集并观察基础病史、术中(手术时间、是否急诊手术、术中出血>800 ml和术中低血压等)及术后指标(改良氧合指数、血乳酸、急性肾损伤和术后24 h内使用升压药情况等)。根据术后是否发生心肌损伤,将患者分为心肌损伤组和非心肌损伤组,采用Logistic回归分析腹腔手术后重症患者心肌损伤的危险因素。结果在纳入的803例腹腔手术后重症患者中,心肌损伤发生率为17. 2%(138/803),而急性心肌梗死发生率仅为0. 9%(7/803)。单因素分析显示,慢性肾功能不全病史、手术时间、急诊手术、术中低血压、术后24 h内使用升压药、高APACHEⅡ评分及术后即刻急性肾损伤与术后重症患者心肌损伤相关(P<0. 05)。多因素回归分析显示,急诊手术(OR=3. 14,95%CI:1. 76～5. 60,P<0. 001)、术后24 h内使用升压药(OR=2. 26,95%CI:1. 23～4. 15,P=0. 008)、APACHEⅡ评分(OR=1. 05,95%CI:1. 01～1. 09,P=0. 008)和术后急性肾损伤(OR=3. 18,95%CI:1. 78～5. 69,P <0. 001)与腹腔手术后重症患者发生心肌损伤独立相关。结论重症患者腹腔手术后心肌损伤发生率高,急诊手术、术后24 h内使用升压药、高APACHEⅡ评分和术后急性肾损伤是导致腹腔手术后重症患者发生心肌损伤的独立危险因素。     

Survey of domestic food purchases and related home handling practices in the Abruzzo region (central Italy): Data collection and analysis through a language-independent classification system

A telephone survey was carried out on 13,486 randomly selected households located in the Abruzzo region (central Italy). Three questionnaires were specifically designed in relation to three different groups of foods (Meat and meat products, Fishery products, Fruit and vegetables). Questions were mainly focused on the amount and number of purchases, type of retailer, and home food handling practices with respect to the week prior to the interview. Data were classified according to a multilingual thesaurus system (LanguaL). Results allowed to estimate domestic purchases (in kg) per capita for different food categories. The category “Red meat/Cattle” accounted for a large part of purchases in the “meat and meat products” group (10.9 kg per capita/year; 32.2% of purchases in the group) while the category “Fish or related organism/Fish” was the most purchased in the “fishery products” group (6.9 kg per capita/year; 63.3%). The aggregation of more detailed characteristics enabled the identification of popular categories of foods, such as “Red meat/Cattle/Divided into pieces” (25% of the “meat and meat products” group). Significant differences (p < 0.05) were found between the four different provinces (L'Aquila, Chieti, Pescara and Teramo) with respect to “Poultry/Chicken” and “Red meat/Cattle” categories. Householders were also asked about post-purchase food handling practices that might be hazardous to food safety. More than 20% of those surveyed stated that they thawed frozen meat at room temperature. The degree of doneness after cooking of different food categories was generally high: over 90% of products purchased in the majority of meat and fish categories were properly cooked. However a noticeable proportion of householders (about 15%) reported medium or rare cooking of “Red meat/Cattle” and “Red meat/Swine”. Differences (p < 0.05) were also found between consumers of different ages, with people over 65 years old being more prone to freeze meat and cook it thoroughly.The survey was carried out in a specific geographic area and on a statistically significant sample of households, thus allowing a collection of data on domestic habits relating to food purchases and home food handling practices. This information should be included in the framework of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models as a measure of the actual exposure of consumers to pathogenic microorganism. The LanguaL system also proved to be a practical language-independent method useful not only to identify and describe food items but also to classify them according to specific food safety characteristics.     

管道风险管理方法研究

按照管道风险管理的流程分别对管道风险评价、风险控制和决策支持、效能测试和响应进行了论述。针对目前国内管道行业的情况，提出了进行管道风险评价的有效方法及维护措施。着重介绍了国外管道风险可接受标准的情况，作为国内制定管道风险评价标准的参考。     

信息安全风险评估的模糊多准则决策方法

基于ISO/IEC17799标准建立了一个综合的信息系统风险分析框架,并运用模糊多准则决策(FMCDM)方法计算信息安全风险,根据风险等级矩阵(RLM)对信息资产风险进行级别划分,最终建立评估信息资产相关风险的完整模型。     

高坝通航技术在水口工程的新发展

水口水电站坝高101m,航运过坝采用一线三级船闸和一线垂直升船机。水口升船机是当时国内已建和在建同类升船机中总体规模最大的升船机,也是我国第一座自行设计、制造、施工和安装的大型升船机。在塔楼结构动力分析和试验研究、塔楼滑框倒模施工、升船机整体模型试验研究、承船厢整体制造和浮运、船厢安全锁定装置和船厢对接密封装置试验研究、整机安装及联调试验等方面充分体现了水口升船机的建成是高坝通航技术的新发展。     

浅谈如何搞好加油站的风险评价

阐述了加油站实施HSE管理，进行加油站风险评价的必要性，介绍了评价方法及其应用范围，评价组织的建立和工作流程及注意事项，指出：进行加油站风险评价，在选择评估方法时应从加油站的生产实际出发，针对不同的区域，采用适当的，可操作的方法；找出身边存在的危害因素，采取适当的措施来控制和化解风险，提高加油站安全管理水平，才能适应加入WTO后所面临的挑战。     

大坝安全监控专家系统中的知识处理

在介绍产生式规则及其数学模型的基础上，论述了用成熟的关系数据库 技术来表示和存储产生式规则表示的专家知识的方法，较好地解决了知识的存储和管理问题 。同时，利用关系数据库中实体间的关系，很容易将分散存储的规则元素组合成规则供推理 时使用。在分析了大坝安全监控专家系统知识特点的基础上举例说明了用关系数据库表 示产生式规则的具体方法。     

新疆伊犁托海水电站拱坝坝体变形监测分析

根据托海拱坝5号坝段、7号坝段例垂线实测资料分析，说明了新疆寒冷地区坝体采取聚胺脂喷涂施工措施后对坝体变形的影响，以及右坝肩渗漏对右坝肩岩体的影响，分析结果为托海水电站通过国家电力公司大坝安全监察中心大坝安全首次定检提供了科学依据。