基于加权马尔可夫链的主动用户行为预测模型

建立有效的用户行为预测模型,准确地预测用户的上网行为,是当前网络主动管理地关键,传统的Markov模型是一种简单而有效的预测模型,但它存在测准确率低、预测覆盖率低以及存储复杂度高等缺点.提出了基于加权马尔可夫链模型,通过分析用户行为特征和最优状态分类的方法,预测网络用户行为.最后通过实验结果表明了该模型的可行性和实用性...     

H.264帧内预测模式选择快速算法的研究

提出一种适用于H.264帧内预测的快速算法,利用相邻像素间的梯度筛选预测模式来避免不必要的预测模式计算。实验结果表明:用全I帧编码,该算法在图像质量和输出码率基本不变的情况下,编码时间大约节省了60%。     

一种基于朴素贝叶斯分类的性能预测方法

基于朴素贝叶斯分类提出了一种复杂应用系统的性能预测方法.利用应用系统性能测试的结果作为训练集,引入朴素贝叶斯分类方法训练分类器,再将该分类器包装成预测模块嵌入应用系统,对响应时间等多种性能属性进行预测.与传统方法相比,该方法具有准确度高、构造简单、效率高、鲁棒性强、松耦合等优势.在针对金融报表系统的对比实验中准确率达到...     

H.264/AVC帧间预测编码模式快速选择算法

通过对H.264/AVC帧间预测模式选择的实验观测,发现最近采用的SKIP/DIRECT模式或者16×16宏块模式,和当前块的选择模式有着空间和时间上的关联。依据这一现象,提出了一种快速的帧间自适应宏块模式选择算法。从验证模型JM7.6上的实验结果来看,在保持图像编码质量,视频编码比特没有太大增加的情况下,该算法对变化不是很剧烈的视频序列,可节省近50%的编码时间,对变化较为剧烈的视频序列,亦可节省近10%的编码时间,降低了原标准在进行帧间预测时的复杂度,提高了编码器的工作效率。     

Moving objects forecast in image sequences using autoregressive algorithms

The objective of this paper is to present an overall approach to forecasting the future position of the moving objects of an image sequence after processing the images previous to it. The proposed method makes use of classical techniques such as optical flow to extract objects’ trajectories and velocities, and autoregressive algorithms to build the predictive model. Our method can be used in a variety of applications, where videos with stationary cameras are used, moving objects are not deformed and change their position with time. One of these applications is traffic control, which is used in this paper as a case study with different meteorological conditions to compare with.

Multiresolution-based bilinear recurrent neural network

A multiresolution-based bilinear recurrent neural network (MBLRNN) is proposed in this paper. The proposed MBLRNN is based on the BLRNN that has robust abilities in modeling and predicting time series. The learning process is further improved by using a multiresolution-based learning algorithm for training the BLRNN so as to make it more robust for the prediction of time series data. The proposed MBLRNN is applied to the problems of network traffic prediction and electric load forecasting. Experiments and results on both practical problems show that the proposed MBLRNN outperforms both the traditional multilayer perceptron type neural network (MLPNN) and the BLRNN in the prediction accuracy.

On calibration error of randomized forecasting algorithms

It has been recently shown that calibration with an error less than Δ>0$\Delta >0$ is almost surely guaranteed with a randomized forecasting algorithm, where forecasts are obtained by random rounding the deterministic forecasts up to Δ$\Delta$. We show that this error cannot be improved for a vast majority of sequences: we prove that, using a probabilistic algorithm, we can effectively generate with probability close to one a sequence “resistant” to any randomized rounding forecasting with an error much smaller than Δ$\Delta$. We also reformulate this result by means of a probabilistic game.     

Dropout prediction in e-learning courses through the combination of machine learning techniques

In this paper, a dropout prediction method for e-learning courses, based on three popular machine learning techniques and detailed student data, is proposed. The machine learning techniques used are feed-forward neural networks, support vector machines and probabilistic ensemble simplified fuzzy ARTMAP. Since a single technique may fail to accurately classify some e-learning students, whereas another may succeed, three decision schemes, which combine in different ways the results of the three machine learning techniques, were also tested. The method was examined in terms of overall accuracy, sensitivity and precision and its results were found to be significantly better than those reported in relevant literature.     

Predictive models for emission of hydrogen powered car using various artificial intelligent tools

This paper investigates the use of artificial intelligent models as virtual sensors to predict relevant emissions such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, unburnt hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen for a hydrogen powered car. The virtual sensors are developed by means of application of various Artificial Intelligent (AI) models namely; AI software built at the University of Tasmania, back-propagation neural networks with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems. These predictions are based on the study of qualitative and quantitative effects of engine process parameters such as mass airflow, engine speed, air-to-fuel ratio, exhaust gas temperature and engine power on the harmful exhaust gas emissions. All AI models show good predictive capability in estimating the emissions. However, excellent accuracy is achieved when using back-propagation neural networks with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm in estimating emissions for various hydrogen engine operating conditions with the predicted values less than 6% of percentage average root mean square error.     

Short-term fault prediction based on support vector machines with parameter optimization by evolution strategy

Support vector machines (SVMs) are the effective machine-learning methods based on the structural risk minimization (SRM) principle, which is an approach to minimize the upper bound risk functional related to the generalization performance. The parameter selection is an important factor that impacts the performance of SVMs. Evolution Strategy with Covariance Matrix Adaptation (CMA-ES) is an evolutionary optimization strategy, which is used to optimize the parameters of SVMs in this paper. Compared with the traditional SVMs, the optimal SVMs using CMA-ES have more accuracy in predicting the Lorenz signal. The industry case illustrates that the proposed method is very successfully in forecasting the short-term fault of large machinery.