气候变化背景下降雨序列的变异分析

为了有效地了解气候变化背景下我国降雨序列变异情况,采用Hurst系数法进行趋势诊断和跳跃诊断,从而分析年降雨序列的变异,并利用基尼系数法对年内降雨序列的均匀度进行量化分析。对宁波市北仑区5个国家雨量站降雨序列的变异分析结果表明,降雨序列的变异点与当时的气候条件相关性很强。     

Quantitative and qualitative variability of pea (Pisum sativum L.) protein composition

Smooth and wrinkled pea cultivars were studied to evaluate the protein content of the seeds, the proportion of albumins to globulins and the variability of the vicilin/legumin ratio. Principal components analysis showed a strong negative correlation between albumin and globulin contents. Stepwise discriminant analysis demonstrated that two variables, protein content and vicilin/legumin ratio, divided the samples into smooth and wrinkled cultivars with a percentage of success of 95%. In addition, the vicilin/legumin ratio tended to increase, the lower the protein content is.     

多因素综合海洋气候模拟加速试验技术在紧固件表面处理工艺筛选中的应用

目的进行表面处理工艺筛选。方法采用海洋气候多因素综合模拟加速试验技术,对镀锌三价铬钝化、镀锌六价铬钝化、镀锌镍合金、无铬锌铝涂层、拉孚铼工艺和石墨烯涂层6种汽车紧固件表面处理工艺进行试验。测定保护层初期腐蚀、保护层腐蚀10%(面积)和基体金属腐蚀10%(面积)的时间,根据检测数据评价上述工艺的保护性能并进行优劣排序。与万宁站户外暴露试验结果对比分析,验证筛选结果的正确性,同时评价海洋气候多因素综合模拟加速试验技术的加速性和相关性。结果 6种表面处理工艺出现保护层初期腐蚀的时间分别为24、48、48、48、144、72 h;保护层腐蚀10%(面积)的时间分别为48、72、72、72、216、144 h;基体金属腐蚀的时间分别为216、168、432、432、432、216 h。腐蚀外观形貌变化过程与户外暴露试验相似,平均加速倍率为21。结论上述工艺保护性能优劣排序为拉孚铼工艺、无铬锌铝涂层、锌镍合金镀层、石墨烯、镀锌三价铬钝化和镀锌六价铬钝化。海洋气候多因素综合模拟加速试验技术与户外暴露试验结果相比具有高加速性和良好相关性,筛选结果正确。     

变化环境下东北半干旱地区径流演变规律分析——以洮儿河流域为例

受气候变化和人类活动影响,众多河流的径流量发生了改变,深入解析历史径流变化成因并探究未来径流演变趋势,是流域水资源科学管理的必然需求。本文以洮儿河流域为研究区,基于SWAT模型定量揭示历史径流变化原因,并结合未来气候情景,探究未来径流演变趋势。结果表明:洮儿河流域历史年均气温呈显著上升趋势,降水、径流均呈现一定下降趋势;气候变化和人类活动分别是洮儿河流域上游和下游径流变化的主要成因。在未来BCC-CSM2-MR(CMIP6)气候模式下,三种不同排放情景的未来期年均径流量相比于基准期变化-10.14%～16.86%,未来水资源利用将面临更大挑战。研究成果可为深入理解流域历史径流变化成因及未来水资源演变趋势提供科学依据,为流域水资源规划和管理提供决策支持。     

Decoupling climate-policy objectives and mechanisms to reduce fragmentation

ABSTRACT

The efficacy of climate-change mitigation policy within the building sector is examined in terms of how fragmentation can limit the extent of mitigation actions that can be achieved in a timely manner. The policy and regulatory context for the building industry is examined in relation to the policy context for solutions and recommendations that will work for all parties. Based on this analysis, two substantive recommendations are made for improved policy design. Firstly, a decoupling of policy objectives and policy mechanisms is needed so that the policy-taking stakeholders (in design, development and construction) can reduce energy use in buildings more effectively. Secondly, policy-taking stakeholders need an explicit and diverse system in order to advocate for policy objectives. The major aspect of this work is the development of a new conceptual framework that ties together these recommendations into a continuous process of policy-making and policy-taking. This framework demonstrates an idealized system that operates simultaneously top down and bottom up, and the development of policy objectives is influenced by stakeholders of all kinds to further the goals of an energy-efficient, low-carbon built environment.     

Complexity‐reduced in the hydroclimatological modelling of aquifer's discharge

Climate variability induces considerable interannual fluctuations in spring discharge, especially in mountain areas, where groundwater is recharged mainly by rain and snow melt. This study presents the discharge climatological model (DISCLIM), which was developed to test a complexity‐reduced approach to perform historical reconstruction in the lack of physical assumptions. The Mount Cervialto aquifer (Southern Italy) is the test site, where a powerful karst spring is monitored since the 1920s and is very sensitive to climatic conditions. DISCLIM incorporates seasonal precipitation and climate indicators only. Despite its simplicity, DISCLIM has been able to well estimate the yearly fluctuations of discharge hydrological, explaining about 90% of the interannual variability at the calibration stage, and more than 80% at validation stage. This means that DISCLIM can be easily used for estimating the discharge in historical times, when no all the hydrological balance data are available for the purpose.     

Introducing the prebound effect: the gap between performance and actual energy consumption

German regulations for the thermal renovation of existing homes demand high thermal standards, which the government claims are technically and economically feasible. This paper examines existing data on 3400 German homes; their calculated energy performance ratings (EPR) are then plotted against the actual measured consumption. The results indicate that occupants consume, on average, 30% less heating energy than the calculated rating. This phenomenon is identified as the ‘prebound’ effect and increases with the calculated rating. The opposite phenomenon, the rebound effect, tends to occur for low-energy dwellings, where occupants consume more than the rating. A similar phenomenon has been recognized in recent Dutch, Belgian, French and UK studies, suggesting policy implications in two directions. Firstly, using a dwelling's energy rating to predict fuel and CO₂ savings through retrofits tends to overestimate savings, underestimate the payback time and possibly discourage cost-effective, incremental improvements. Secondly, the potential fuel and CO₂ savings through non-technical measures such as occupant behaviour may well be far larger than is generally assumed in policies so policy-makers need a better understanding of what drives or inhibits occupants' decisions.

La réglementation allemande relative à la rénovation thermique des logements existants exige des normes thermiques élevées, que le gouvernement prétend être techniquement et économiquement applicables. Cet article examine les données existantes sur 3400 logements allemands; leurs classes d'efficacité énergétique (CEE) calculées sont ensuite comparées à la consommation réelle mesurée. Les résultats indiquent que les occupants consomment, en moyenne, 30 % d'énergie de chauffage en moins que la classe calculée. Ce phénomène est identifié en raison de l'accroissement de l'effet de « pré-bond » avec la classe calculée. Le phénomène opposé, l'effet de rebond, tend à se produire dans les logements à basse consommation d'énergie, dans lesquels les occupants ont une consommation supérieure à la classe. Un phénomène similaire a été reconnu dans des études récentes néerlandaises, belges, françaises et britanniques, suggérant des implications en termes de politiques dans deux directions. En premier lieu, l'utilisation de la classe énergétique d'un logement pour prévoir les économies de combustible et de CO₂ pouvant être obtenues grâce à des rénovations a tendance à surestimer les économies, à sous-estimer le délai d'amortissement et éventuellement à dissuader d'effectuer des améliorations incrémentielles rentables. En second lieu, les économies potentielles de combustible et de CO₂ pouvant être obtenues par des mesures non techniques telles que le comportement des occupants peuvent se révéler être bien plus importantes que cela n'est supposé en règle générale dans les politiques, de sorte que les décideurs ont besoin de mieux comprendre ce qui motive ou empêche les décisions des occupants.

Mots clés: performance des bâtiments, rénovations thermiques, politique climatique, classe énergétique, politique énergétique, comportement de consommation énergétique     

浅谈建筑的地域性气候适应——以赵家堡为例探究建筑的气候特征

建筑是以人为本,建筑也同样是与大自然合而为一。建筑适应当地的气候,表现出各式各样的建筑形式,也即"形式追随气候"。本文以赵家堡传统村落为例探究建筑的地域性气候适应,研究建筑的气候特征,从而更好的指导建筑设计。     

位置度超差对轴流压气机流场性能影响的数值研究

以单级轴流压气机为研究对象,采用数值计算方法研究了叶片位置度超差对压气机流场性能的影响。计算结果表明,当叶片位置度发生变化时,压气机的等熵效率、总压比等气动参数都不同程度地呈现恶化趋势,并且轴向位置度的影响大于周向位置度;叶片周向及轴向位置度的变化对压气机叶片气动载荷和进口攻角的影响规律各不相同。