PROJECTION MODULUS: A NEW DIRECTION FOR SELECTING SUBSET AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS

Selecting a parsimonious subset autoregressive time series model is a valuable objective particularly where there is or may be evidence that a time series may have some form of periodic or quasi-periodic behaviour. An efficient model selection procedure is essential because of the large number of possible alternative models involved. The explanation of an increase in residual variance due to excluding a lag is examined in Hilbert space. As a result, a new statistic, the projection modulus , and its derivatives are developed to assess the significance of any lag in a model. The impact of deleting a lag, as measured by these statistics, helps to produce a selection procedure where true lags have less chance of being removed. We then assess an efficient subset autoregressive model selection procedure employing these statistics. The success of the proposed procedure is illustrated by its efficiency in identifying the true model for simulated and real data.     

应用瞬变电磁技术对屯留煤矿南一采区赋水性分析

通过对钻孔以及强干扰区进行参数试验,确定了发射边框、发射频率、发射电流、采样延迟、高压线影响等施工布置参数;结合野外实测数据和钻孔测井资料,进行数据处理和反演,得出采区内的煤系地层与上下围岩有着明显的电性差异;采区北部富水性相对较强,中部和南部富水性相对较弱,F66断层和X26、X35、X79陷落柱是各煤层和奥灰岩的垂向导水通道。     

基于新模糊准则与 DE算法的红外人体图像分割 *

人体目标的抽取是红外人体图像处理的基础 ,为了有效获取红外图像中的人体目标 ,提出了一种新的图像阈值化方法。首先在对模糊熵方法本质分析的基础上 ,通过参数变换定义了一种新的最小化模糊准则 ,然后将差分演化 ( differential evolution, DE)算法与新模糊准则相结合用于快速、有效地获取最佳阈值 ,最后在真实红外人体图像上与其他方法进行了对比实验。实验结果表明 ,所提出的方法不仅能得到理想的分割结果 ,而且 CPU耗时也较少 ,满足实时性处理要求。     

发电机失磁故障典型判据分析

介绍发电机失磁对电力系统及发电机本身造成的危害,阐述典型判据分析发电机失磁故障的原因及采取的方案措施．     

基于Hoek-Brown准则的深部岩体力学参数及其应用

基于Hoek-Brown经验强度准则,采用最小二乘法拟合出岩体力学强度参数,并与H-B_02ed推荐的等面积拟合结果进行对比,结果发现两种拟合方法得出的岩体内摩擦角数值相差很小,但等面积拟合法得出的黏聚力强度远高于最小二乘拟合法。将两种强度参数拟合结果应用于深部矿体开采的数值模拟,发现采用最小二乘拟合法的岩体强度参数其模拟结果更接近工程实际。该方法对深部岩体力学参数的确定具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Study on Echo Time-Delay Estimation of Pulsed Laser Fuze

Pulse laser range detector is to measure the distance by estimating the time delay between the emitting pulse and echo pulse.In this paper,a mathematical model for the target echo signal of laser fuze has been established;in accordance with this model,the formulas for echo time-delay estimation and for amplitude estimation based on least squares criterion have been deduced.It is argued and simulated that the resolution of echo time-delay estimation could be improved through multi-reference correlation appro...     

TD-SCDMA系统下行波束赋形技术研究

TD-SCDMA系统最重要的技术特征是智能天线技术,智能天线技术的核心是下行波束赋形。综合考虑了干扰和噪声对移动台的影响,模拟了在不同信道环境下的基于最小均方误差准则的理想波束赋形算法及其实现方法,并对算法进行了性能仿真,分析结论并说明系统性能的改善。     

结构钢缺口板断裂试验及数值分析

通过对25个结构钢缺口板进行的单向拉伸断裂试验,验证了提出的结构钢广义屈服模型和椭球面断裂准则.用ANSYS软件中的参数化设计语言APDL和用户编程功能UPFs,将提出的静水应力型广义屈服模型编制成子程序模块,对结构钢缺口板断裂试验进行了基于广义屈服模型和椭球面断裂准则的数值模拟分析.试验结果表明:裂纹起始于缺口边缘内侧,裂纹在厚度方向贯通后沿宽度发展,试件最终断裂于缺口薄弱断面.缺口板断裂应力场分析表明,提出的椭球面断裂准则对预测结构钢缺口板初始开裂具有广泛适用性和较高精度.     

人力资本约束下区域主导产业选择方法

为了合理的确立区域主导产业,制定符合区域一级发展模式的主导产业选择基准和相应指标,提出了区域主导产业选择的人力资本匹配基准,给出了相应指标的计算方法.实证结果表明:尽管中国的劳动力资源非常丰富,但整体的人力资本水平却依然很低,同时人力资本分配非常不平均,劳动力过剩和人力资本不足的结构性矛盾日益突出.考虑到中国各区域人力资本分配的地域差距,区域一方面应大力进行人力资本积累,改善人力资本现状,另一方面,正视区域人力资本现状的现实,在区域主导产业选择时理性抉择,才能实现人力资本积累与产业结构升级的同步和有效互动.     

Caving performance through the integration of microseismic activity and numerical modeling at DOZ-PT Freeport, Indonesia

This article describes an undergoing research at PT Freeport,Indonesia,in which the main goal is to use the microseismic information recorded as a result of mining to analyze cave propagation and stress performance on the actual production and fixed in-frastructure.At the moment,several numerical experiments have been conducted to correlate the mining activity with the microseis-mic events using the data collected during year 2005 and 2006.As a result of the preliminary analysis a micro-and a macrocracking envelop were proposed on the basis of computation of stress behavior at the location of the events.Stresses have been computed us-ing standard elastic continuous boundary element models.The correlation between the average source radius and the stress perform-ance has provided a method to propose a macrocracking criterion.Several techniques have been tested to nucleate the microseismic activity around different geological features.This last attempt was aimed to look at potential overstresses induced over the undercut and extraction level drifts.A method was devised to integrate the microseismicity into a 3-dimensional ride distribution model.This model has shown to be very effective to quantify the overstress induced as a result of computing volumetric microseismieity density.The volumetric microseismic model showed to induce overstress up to 10 MPa over a period of two months.The future work will concentrate on the calibration of the integrated model with actual damage observations made at the current mining infrastructure.