Climate Change and Future Long-Term Trends of Rainfall at North-East of Iraq

Iraq is facing water shortage problem despite the presence of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. In this research, long rainfall trends up to the year 2099 were studied in Sulaimani city northeast Iraq to give an idea about future prospects. The medium high （A2） and medium low B2 scenarios have been used for purpose of this study as they are more likely than others scenarios, that beside the fact that no climate modeling canter has performed GCM （global climate model） simulations for more than a few emissions scenarios （HadCM3 has only these two scenarios） otherwise pattern scaling can be used for generating different scenarios which entail a huge uncertainty. The results indicate that the average annual rainfall shows a significant downward trend for both A2 and B2 scenarios. In addition, winter projects increase/decrease in the daily rainfall statistics of wet days, the spring season show very slight drop and no change for both scenarios. However, both summer and autumn shows a significant reduction in maximum rainfall value especially in 2080s while the other statistics remain nearly the same. The extremes events are to decrease slightly in 2080s with highest decrease associated with A2 scenario. This is due to the fact that rainfall under scenario A2 is more significant than under scenario B2. The return period of a certain rainfall will increase in the future when a present storm of 20 year could occur once every 43 year in the 2080s. An increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall depends on several factors such as the return period, season of the year, the period considered as well as the emission scenario used.     

School attendance and daily respiratory symptoms in children: influence of moisture damage

We investigated the effect of weekends and school holidays on the daily frequency and severity of respiratory and other symptoms among children attending schools with (index) or without (reference) moisture damage in Spain, the Netherlands, and Finland. Throughout 1 year, parents of 419 children with a respiratory condition attending index (n=15) or reference (n=10) primary schools completed three symptom diaries. We assessed associations between lower respiratory tract, upper respiratory tract or allergy, and other symptom scores and school day, weekend, or summer holiday using mixed regression models stratified by country and moisture damage. We evaluated interactions between moisture damage and type of day. We combined country‐specific estimates (incidence rate ratios [IRRs] and 95% confidence interval [CI]) in meta‐analyses. Symptom scores were lower during weekends and holiday. Lower respiratory tract symptoms were statistically significantly less common during holiday with strongest effect in index schools (IRR=0.7; CI=0.6–0.8). Reporting of other symptoms was more reduced during holiday in index (IRR=0.6; CI=0.4–0.9) than in reference (IRR=0.95; CI=0.8–1.2) schools (interaction P<.01). In conclusion, symptoms were less frequent and/or severe during summer holiday and weekends. This pattern was stronger among children attending moisture‐damaged schools, suggesting potential improvement in moisture damage‐related symptoms during school breaks.     

基于摄像视频分析的降雨量测量方法

提出一种新颖的基于视频的降雨量测量方法。首先 根据雨图亮度变化特征检测雨滴;其次,为解决雨滴离摄像机距离信息未知情况下的雨滴尺 寸估计问题,在雨滴成像光度模型中融入散聚焦因素, 构建了基于亮度差和色彩张量响应特征的散聚焦雨滴判别方法;然后,根据透视成像关系计 算聚焦雨滴的尺寸并根据气象学 雨滴谱的定义来构建观测雨滴谱;最后,为抑制观测雨滴谱中的噪声,采用气象学Gamma模 型拟合观测雨滴谱,并由模型参 数计算降雨量。在不同程度的降雨环境下实验检验算法,并与雨量计记 录数据对比,测量结果较为一致。     

Proposal of a semi-probabilistic approach for storage facility design

Storage facilities are key devices in mitigating the urban drainage impact on receiving water bodies, but their design is still affected by high uncertainty. The analytical-probabilistic approach has recently raised interest, because the facility performances are directly related to probability. Starting from statistically independent storm events, distributions of the meteorological variables must be fitted. Rainfall series, recorded in three Italian raingauges, were examined for appraising two main concerns: the choice of proper probability distributions for rainfall volume and the sample sensitivity with respect to the analysis criterion. The analytical derivation of the model is then finally discussed.     

Statistical evaluation on storm sewer design criteria under climate change in Seoul,South Korea

This study conducted statistical analysis under both stationary and non-stationary climate using rainfall data measured in Seoul, South Korea. The 50 year annual maximum rainfall data were analysed with generalised extreme value distribution and Gumbel distribution. Possible rainfall changes were predicted with nonstationary forms of the two distributions, considering time variable location parameters. The current storm sewer design criteria were assessed by reflecting climate change implications and expected lifetime performance. Expected return periods were reduced to 4.67, 8.66, 19.16 and 23.53 years for the current 10 min - 5, 10, 30 and 50 years. The newly suggested design criteria of 5, 10, 30 and 50 yr return period storm events were 5.3, 12, 48 and 107 years for the 10 min duration for a 50 year lifetime expectancy.     

Bacterial contamination due to point and nonpoint source pollution in a rapidly growing urban center in an arid region

The distribution of bacterial contaminants (Escherichia coli and total coliforms) and nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) in a rapidly growing metropolitan area, the Las Vegas Valley, were studied to assess the contributions of point and nonpoint pollution sources under dry weather flow (pre rainfall) and wet weather flow (post rainfall) events. Nonpoint sources emanating from urban centers and septic seepage were found to be a primary source of bacterial contamination in the Las Vegas Wash, a mainstream wash channel where the Las Vegas Valley watershed drains. Contribution of point sources (wastewater treatment plants) to E. coli and total coliforms were found to be negligible. However, data in the Tropicana/Flamingo Wash, a tributary of the Las Vegas Wash, showed high bacterial activities in the wet antecedent rainfall condition as compared to the pre-rain dry antecedent condition suggesting that the rainfall increased bacterial activities.     

考虑降雨入渗的边坡稳定性分析

采用极限平衡分析法,建立了能考虑降雨入渗的饱和—非饱和边坡稳定性分析方法,对降雨条件下边坡稳定性变化规律进行了分析,计算结果表明,抗剪强度参数、边坡初始状态都对边坡稳定性具有明显影响,降雨造成的孔隙水压力变化比自重增大对边坡稳定性的影响更大.     

日输量对分注工具内流体压降影响计算

为了明确日输量对环形降压槽内聚合物溶液沿程阻力损失影响及规律、提高分层注采效率。结合流体力学理论,分别针对日输量为50、75、100、125、150、200 m~3,密度为998 kg/m~3,粘度为75 m Pa·s的聚合物溶液进行计算,在同一规格降压槽中比较沿程阻力损失的大小,分析影响规律。计算结果表明:不同日输量对流经同一环形降压槽的聚合物溶液流态影响不大,雷诺数十分接近,仅200 m~3时处于层流紊流混合区;环形降压槽压力损失与管壁粗糙度无关,与日输量、输送介质密度、粘度等因素有关;随着日输量上升环形降压槽管壁沿程阻力损失不断增加,但增加速度逐渐降低。     

北京洪水峪泥石流形成条件探讨

洪水峪泥石流、沟内崩塌、不稳定斜坡等不良地质现象发育。该沟内煤矸石、沟道物源丰富,上游汇水面积大,沟道纵坡降较大,在强降雨沟道径流冲刷作用下,极易发生揭底起动而形成泥石流灾害。在雨季,支沟常有少量泥沙、块石冲出,阻塞进山道路,淤塞河道,引起原有坝体损毁,威胁居民生命财产安全。通过对以往资料的综合整理,结合现场调查,对洪水峪泥石流形成的诸多条件进行了分析,以期对该区泥石流的防治与预测起到参考作用。