Application of system dynamics in analyzing the carrying capacity of water resources in Yiwu City,China

A risk assessment model for water shortage is constructed using a risk analysis method based on the information diffusion theory. The application of this model is demonstrated in the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang Province, China. Based on the analytical results from a small sample, this study indicates that the present model is more stable and effective than the traditional model. Risk assessment results are used to analyze the carrying capacity of water resources from an ecological angle. For this study, the carrying capacity of water resources is defined as the maximum volume of water suitable for supporting human activity in certain stages of social development that can be borne by water resources under favorable ecological conditions. Further study on Yiwu is also performed, with results indicating that water shortages in this city are not related to types of water source, but can be classified in terms of water quality and conservation. To verify the results of theoretical investigation in this paper, the authors simulate changes in the carrying capacity of water resources under the conditions of future water management policies. This simulation uses the system dynamics (SD) model, based on the historical data collected by the city over the past 20 years and governmental plans to raise inhabitants’ living standards between the present and 2020. The paper simultaneously indicates that both singularly pursuing fast economic development at the expense of the environment and promoting environmental protection via reduced economic development are undesirable for Yiwu. Simultaneously giving consideration to both the economic development and environmental protection is likely to produce better overall results. However, if the present water supply level is maintained but does not increase in the near future, Yiwu's water supply will be unable to satisfy requirements even under this scheme. In this case, the carrying capacity of water resources in the region can only be effectively improved by promoting more efficient use of water and water conservation schemes, as well as strengthening long-term investment in environmental protection.     

Cyclic voltammetry on electrode surfaces covered with porous layers: An analysis of electron transfer kinetics at single-walled carbon nanotube modified electrodes

Cyclic voltammetry is recorded of the oxidation of ferrocyanide on a glassy carbon electrode modified with multiple layers of single-walled carbon nanotubes. The current response is interpreted in terms of semi-infinite planar diffusion towards the macro-electrode surface and in terms of oxidation of the electroactive species trapped in pockets in between the nanotubes. A thin layer model is used to illustrate the effects of diffusion within a porous layer. It is found that a semi-infinite planar diffusion model alone is not appropriate for interpreting the kinetics of the electron transfer at this electrode surface. In particular, caution should be exercised in respect of comparing voltammetric peak-to-peak potential separations between naked electrodes and nanotube-modified electrodes for the inference of electrocatalysis via electron transfer via the nanotubes.     

Testing Forecast Accuracy of Foreign Exchange Rates: Predictions from Feed Forward and Various Recurrent Neural Network Architectures

In this research, we work with data of futures contracts on foreign exchange rates for British pound (BP), Canadian dollar (CD), and Japanese yen (JY) that are traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) against US dollars. We model relationships between exchange rates in these currencies using linear models, feed forward artificial neural networks (ANN), and three versions of recurrent neural networks (RNN1, RNN2 and RNN3) for predicting exchange rates in these currencies against the US dollar. Our results on forecast evaluations based on AGS test the tests of forecast equivalence between any two competing models among the entire models employed for each of the series show that ANN and the three versions of RNN models offer superior forecasts for predicting BP, CD and JY exchange rates although the forecast evaluations based on MGN test are in sharp contrast. On the other hand forecast based on SIGN test shows that ANN and all the versions of RNN models offer superior forecasts for BP and CD in exception of JY exchange rates. The results for forecast evaluation for all the models for each of the series based on summary measures of forecast evaluations show that RNN3 model appears to offer the most accurate predictions of BP and RNN1 for JP exchange rates. However, none of the RNN models appear to be statistically superior to the benchmark (i.e., linear model) for predicting CD exchange rates.      

Characterization of surface deformation with the Edge of LightTM technique

The aircraft lap joints are inspected with an enhanced visual inspection technique named “Edge of Light”, which is patented by the NRC Institute for Aerospace Research. This technique is applicable for rapid detection of possible hidden corrosion in lap joints. The surface deformation due to hidden corrosion can be characterized by this optical-based inspection method. In this study, a calibration procedure is developed to quantify the lap joint surface deformation. The effect of surface reflectivity is investigated with the solid film highlighting technique (SolidHi^TM), which helps achieve a uniform reflectivity during the inspection. The efficiency of the technique is demonstrated with the experimental results. This work is supported by NRC-IAR New Initiative Research Funding.     

Food security problems in sub-Saharan Africa: Operations Research as a tool of analysis

For many years, the author has been involved in teaching and research in the use of Operations Research as a tool of analysis to study food security problems in sub‐Saharan Africa, in particular, grass root problems of poor farmers. The paper presents an introduction to the way Operations Research methods have been applied in case studies and research projects, and discusses in retrospect the author's views on the strengths and limitations of the application of Operations Research. The paper has in particular been written for people who are not familiar with applications of Operations Research in agriculture, and are interested to learn about its potential usefulness in practice. The retrospective part is largely based on food security studies in e.g. Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Bénin, Togo and Eritrea and on participation in several interdisciplinary research programmes in Africa.     

基于关键词相关度的Deep Web爬虫爬行策略

Deep Web蕴藏丰富的、高质量的信息资源,为了获取某Deep Web站点的页面,用户不得不键入一系列的关键词集。由于没有直接指向Deep Web页面的静态链接,目前大多数搜索引擎不能发现这些页面。该文提出的Deep Web爬虫爬行策略,可以有效地下载Deep Web页面。由于该页面只提供一个查询接口,因此Deep Web爬虫设计面对的主要挑战是怎样选择最佳的查询关键词产生有意义的查询。实验证明文中提出的一种基于不同关键词相关度权重的选择方法是有效的。     

Lower estimation of approximation rate for neural networks

Let SFd and Πψ,n,d = { nj=1bjψ(ωj·x+θj) :bj,θj∈R,ωj∈Rd} be the set of periodic and Lebesgue’s square-integrable functions and the set of feedforward neural network (FNN) functions, respectively. Denote by dist (SF d, Πψ,n,d) the deviation of the set SF d from the set Πψ,n,d. A main purpose of this paper is to estimate the deviation. In particular, based on the Fourier transforms and the theory of approximation, a lower estimation for dist (SFd, Πψ,n,d) is proved. That is, dist(SF d, Πψ,n,d) (nlogC2n)1/2 . T...     

BP神经网络的改进算法及其应用

BP(Back-propagation neural network)神经网络是目前应用最为广泛和成功的多层前馈神经网络之一,分析了BP算法的基本原理,指出了BP算法具有收敛速度慢、易陷入局部极小点等缺陷以及这些缺陷产生的根源,并针对这些缺陷,通过在标准BP算法中引入变步长法、加动量项法等几种方法来优化BP算法。仿真实验结果表明,这些方法有效地提高了BP算法的收敛速度,避免陷入局部最小点。同时,将改进得BP神经网络算法应用于脱机手写体汉字识别系统的实现,使系统较好地回避了汉字结构复杂、变形难以预测等问题,提高了识别率。     

简述开关电源可靠性指标与改善途径

在电子系统中经常需要用到稳定性好,工作效率高的电源。开关电源的可靠性高,不仅提高电子系统工作效率,而且使电子设备在维修和管理方面的费用降低。文章将主要介绍开关电源可靠性指标,分析影响可靠性的因素及提高系统可靠性的途径。     

基于国家信息安全风险评估指南的量化模型研究

以2005年颁布的国标草案《信息安全风险评估指南》为主要指导,并参考NISTSP800—30的管理控制思想、评估方法以及威胁发生可能性的计算方法,给出了一个具有可操作性的信息安全风险评估量化模型。