国内外乙丙橡胶市场供需状况

介绍了国内外乙丙橡胶市场的供需状况，并对我国乙丙橡胶的产业发展提出了建议。     

测井新技术在四川油气勘探开发中的应用

综述随着四川盆地油气勘探深入所面临的油气领域复杂和困难的技术问题，介绍应用测井新技术为四川油气开发解决了大量的技术难题，特别是在复杂缝，洞型储层的评价，井旁地质构造形态精细分析和地质，测井，地震多学科结合储层横向预测等3个方面所取得的良好应用效果。     

连续工作型电子装备战备完好性预计

从战略完好性的实际内涵出发，考虑到装备实际工作中可能处于不同的工作状态，因而其战略完好性模型也应有所有同。对于处于连续工作状态的电子装备，即使工作中发生故障，只要执行下次任务前能修好，就不影响装备的战略完好性。基于此，得出了电子装备处于连续工作状态下的战略完好性预计模型，并在对应的条件下对此模型的得出进行了缜密的推理。     

Effects of solidification structure on fatigue crack initiation and fatigue strength in Al−Si−Mg cast alloys

Rotating-bending uniaxial fatigue tests and micro-fatigue crack initiation tests were carried out using a permanent mold cast (PMC) and semi-solid die cast (SDC) with Al−7%Si−0.35%Mg composition in order to examine the relationship between solidification structures and fatigue behaviors. The crack length was measured using a replication method. Fatigue strength was improved in SDC, which was almost consistent with the predicted fatigue strength using the size of Si particle cluster. Resistance to fatigue crack initiation and fatigue strength were improved in SDC owing to the finer Si cluster and to higher ultimate tensile strength. Fatigue crack in PMC was preferentially initiated at pores. For SDC, the fatigue crack was initiated at the Si particle/matrix interface, and then sucessively grew along eutectic cell boundaries.     

多变量自回归模型在三江平原井灌水稻需水量预测中的应用

应用多变量自回归模型ARV(n), 利用三江平原腹地-富锦市1985～1999年气象资料, 按水稻生育期划分6个生育阶段, 建立了井灌水稻生育期内需水量预测模型. 经模型拟合与预测, 效果良好, 可以为该地区开展节水灌溉、灌溉用水管理、合理开发利用地下水资源, 缓解地下水危机提供参考依据.     

我国“十五“电力供需预测分析

分析“十五”期间我国电力需求预测和电力预测中的不确定因素,提出建议采取的措施。     

用于机器人轨迹定位纠正系统的回声状态神经网络研究

循环神经网络(RecurrentNeuralNetworks)是人工神经网络(ArtificialNeuralNetworks)中重要的分支,与前馈神经网络(ForwardNeuralNetworks)相比具有更好的时间序列学习能力。但长期以来其学习法一直不能脱离前馈神经网络而自成一体,回声状态神经网络(EchoStateNetworks(ESN))是打破这一局面的全新学习方法。其独特的结构,良好的短期记忆能力,方便的学习方法,不俗的非线性特性是以前循环神经网络所不可比的。本文在介绍了回声状态神经网络之后将其用于四轮机器人的位置测量系统中,有良好的表现。     

Spare parts inventory management with demand lead times and rationing

We study an inventory system that consists of two demand classes. The orders in the first class need to be satisfied immediately, whereas the orders in the second class are to be filled in a given demand lead time. The two classes are also of different criticality. For this system, we propose a policy that rations the non-critical orders. Under a one-for-one replenishment policy with backordering and for Poisson demand arrivals for both classes, we first derive expressions for the service levels of both classes. The service level for the critical class is an approximation, whereas the service level for the non-critical class is exact. We then conduct a computational study to show that our approximation works reasonably, the benefits of rationing can be substantial, and the incorporation of demand lead time provides more value when the demand class with demand lead time is the critical class. The research is motivated by the spare parts service system of a major capital equipment manufacturer that faces two types of demand. For this company, the critical down orders need to be satisfied immediately, while the less critical maintenance orders can be satisfied after a fixed demand lead time. We conduct a case study with 64 representative parts and show that significant savings (as much as 14% on inventory on hand) are possible through incorporation of demand lead times and rationing.     

三角函数型增长曲线预测油田开发指标

提出了用三角函数表示的一类用于油田开发指标预测的增长曲线共6条，从而进一步完善和丰富了现有的增长曲线法。提出和推导了它们的Np-t、Qt-t、Qt-Np关系式、（Np/NRmax)Qtmax准数计算式以及参数求解式。其特片研究表明，它们特征相近；（Np/NRamx)Qtmax变化范围为0-0.36785，属于峰值产量出现在油田开发初期的情况，其Qt-Np关系为一不对称的拱形曲线。提出了求取曲线参数的过原点重复线性回归法。双河油田的实例表明该方法有一定实用价值。     

Investigation of the impact of changes in demand forecasting method on the financial performance of an electricity supply undertaking

Peak demand forecasts obtained from six different univariate forecasting methods, under a range of conditions, were used to drive a capacity acquisition model of a large electrical supply system; and the resulting physical and financial performance of the model was observed for each set of forecasts. The results obtained are discussed in the context of their implications for the choice of load forecasting method used in capacity acquisition planning by a power supply undertaking.