Emergency aero-photo survey after the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake,China

After the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake which took place on May 12, 2008, aerial remote sensing has rapidly covered all the influence sites of the earthquake, emergency aero-photo interpretation has revealed the disaster distribution limitation, and captured the information of location, dimension of the destroyed houses, roads and other structures, blocked rivers, etc, which provided destroying conditions of the time for rescuing lives, rebuilding traffic lines and estimating disaster situation. The further interpretation and analysis indicate that large scale second growth geological disasters mainly distribute in the distance of 0–300 km and 45°–50° orientation from the epicenter. About 137 latent large-scale landslides and debris-flows will occur in this rain season and coming several years, so how to avoid current geological disasters as well as the latent large disasters should be considered in making rebuilding and developing plan.     

湖南省农业干旱灾害风险区划研究

基于自然灾害风险理论和旱灾物理成因,考虑干旱的危险性、承灾体的暴露性、环境的脆弱性以及抗旱减灾能力等方面的要素,运用“自下而上”的区划方法,对湖南省农业干旱灾害风险进行了区划。以县级行政区为最小区划单元,选取9个评价指标并利用层次分析法构建农业干旱灾害风险指数,采用基于GN算法的区域区划方法,将湖南省划分为5个干旱灾害风险等级和12个分布区,其中常德市、衡阳市、郴州市等地部分地区风险较高;划分结果与湖南省水稻生产干旱灾害风险区划的结果多数相同,验证了区划结果的合理性。     

太湖及太浦河两岸地区洪涝风险分析及对策探讨

由于特殊的自然地理条件,加之人类活动频繁,太湖及太浦河两岸地区的防洪、水资源和水环境等问题交织在一起,导致洪涝风险成因复杂,洪水风险长期存在。分析了该地区的洪涝风险特性,包括太湖水位易涨难消、太浦河两岸地区洪涝风险互相转化、上下游洪水风险转移,以及下垫面、引调水的变化而导致的洪水风险分布随之调整等;根据分析结果,对该地区的洪涝风险类型进行了识别。在此基础上,提出了科学精细调度水利工程、提升平原河网洪水风险分析技术、建立洪水风险实时分析系统以及探索"风险共担"的洪水管理模式等方面的建议。     

新疆1949—2019年洪水灾害调查与特征分析

洪水灾害是新疆最严重的自然灾害,调查并研究洪水灾害的特征与规律对防洪减灾有重要意义。本文通过调查新疆洪水灾害相关的年鉴、公报、简报及文献资料等,统计分析了新疆1949-2019年近71年主要洪水灾害,给出了洪水灾害的时间及地域分布规律、灾害类型特征。对洪水灾害造成的直接经济损失及占国民生产总值的比例进行了统计分析,并重点对2006年以后的受灾人口与死亡人口、直接经济损失进行了分析。结果表明,虽然洪水频次与洪灾直接经济损失有增加趋势,但因灾死亡人口及直接经济损失所占GDP比重不断减少,并趋于平稳,防洪减灾效益明显。本文研究为新疆洪水灾害风险评估、防御应对与决策支持提供了借鉴参考。     

山丘区沿河村落山洪灾害受灾水位及危险区划分方法

随着山丘区小流域山洪灾害防御工作的精准化推进,山丘区河道沿岸局部重点区域(村落、集镇)已经成为山洪灾害重点关注对象。针对沿河村落开展暴雨洪水分析,定位村落内防洪能力最薄弱的居民户,计算受灾水位,分析不同频率洪水水面线下的淹没人口,绘制山洪灾害危险区是山洪灾害防御、预警工作的核心和难点之一。针对目前受灾水位和危险区划分存在的问题,根据现场调查和测量资料,综合设计暴雨洪水计算、水位-流量关系计算、点投影、点线关系判断等方法,提出了一种可行的受灾水位计算、受灾人口判定和危险区绘制方法。采用Matlab编程批量计算,以济南市小李庄村为例进行了应用实践。结果表明,该方法可准确定位防洪能力最薄弱的居民户,计算沿河村落受灾水位,判定居民户与不同频率洪水水面线的关系,从而较为精确地绘制山洪灾害危险区。     

Support principles of NPR bolt/cable and control techniques of large-deformation disasters

Deep mining has been paid much more attention because of the depletion of shallow mining resources.Traditional bolts could be invalid to accommodate large displacement and deformation in geomaterials.Consequently, alternative support and reinforcement bolts need to be studied and their constitutive models also need to be developed to help understanding for the complex stress-strain responses of rock masses under loadings. The effect of Negative Poisson's Ratio(NPR) that is attributed to the swelling phenomenon along the lateral direction may appear in metal materials under tensional loadings. Thence NPR materials often have an advantage over NPR ones in mechanical behavior such as impact resistance, antishearing, and energy absorbed. From the characteristics of NPR materials, a series of bolt and cable supports with the effect of NPR and constant-resistance have been recently developed. We here firstly introduce the structural features of NPR support. Then the constitutive model of NPR support is presented and its corresponding equation of energy equilibrium. Its basic principle interacted on rock masses is further discussed. Finally, NPR cables are employed to support the slope of an open-pit mine. The applications show that NPR cables can ease failure within the slope and play an important role in predicting and providing early warning of slope failure, together with a monitoring system of slope stability.     

广西德保岩溶内涝灾害风险评价

利用基于Arc GIS技术和层次分析法的灾害风险评价模型对广西德保县岩溶内涝灾害进行风险评价,以期为防治岩溶内涝灾害提供科学依据。综合比较德保县降雨条件、社会经济与自然环境等因素,利用层次分析法确定各因子权重,然后利用Arc GIS技术得到德保县岩溶内涝灾害危险性、易损性和风险区划图。风险评价结果表明:广西德保县岩溶内涝高风险区主要集中在人口密集的城关镇,较高风险区主要分布在耕地面积分布较广的北部地区,而东部及西部地区的内涝灾害风险较低。     

散粒体的自组织临界性分析

基于二维模拟实验,研究竖向荷载下散粒体中的自组织临界性,揭示细观拱效应与宏观大崩塌的变化规律,以及拱效应与材料性质的关系.散粒体中每个小自组织的临界发展过程包括自组织搭拱、拱随遇平衡和拱崩塌的动力学演化.散粒体大坍塌是众多小自组织临界发生后的力学性质由量变到质变的过程.用随机理论细观探讨一个预期失败模式的理论模型,为研究散体材料结构自组织临界性系统的可预测性及灾害预测预报提供了科学依据.     

Areas vulnerable to natural disasters and damage estimation of infrastructure in Busan,Korea

Since the damages caused by disasters associated with climate anomalies and the diversification of the social structure increase every year, an efficient management system associated with a damage assessment of the areas vulnerable to disasters is demanded to prevent or mitigate the damages to infrastructure. The areas vulnerable to disasters in Busan, located at southeastern part of Korea, were estimated based on historical records of damages and a risk assessment of the infrastructure was performed to provide fundamental information prior to the establishment of the real-time monitoring system for infrastructure and establish disaster management system. The results are illustrated by using geographical information system（GIS） and provide the importance of the roadmap for comprehensive and specific strategy to manage natural disasters.     

北京市山区河道治理思路探讨

本文通过论述北京市地形、地势条件及特殊的气候条件,分析山区河流的特点,总结以往规划治理过程中存在的有关问题,探讨了山区河道治理思路,并提出了相应的改进的方向和措施,因此创立了由"减阻减糙"到"增阻增糙"的治理思路和模式;即:保证河道治理后,相应频率洪水流速及水位不大于治理前,降低区域防洪风险并降低对下游干流河道洪水威胁。