The development and maturation of humanitarian psychology.

Humanitarian psychological support as an organized field is relatively young. Pioneers in the field were involved primarily in providing psychological support to refugees and internally displaced persons in conflict and nonconflict situations. This article describes basic principles for the design of psychological support programs and interventions. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) began a psychological support program in 1991. The IFRC chose psychological first aid as its model for implementation in developing countries. Psychological first aid fits all the principles for psychological support program design and is adapted to individual communities. The first generation of psychological support programs differed dramatically depending on the countries in which they were developed. A second generation of psychological support programs evolved in response to the earthquake/tsunami of December 26, 2004. The Inter-Agency Standing Committee international guidelines consolidated the advances of second-generation programs and provided a clear indication of the wide acceptance of the importance of psychological support. A glimpse is provided of the third generation of psychological support programs, and an admonition is made for a more empirical evaluation of the effectiveness of interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Trajectories leading to school-age conduct problems.

The present study applied a semiparametric mixture model to a sample of 284 low-income boys to model developmental trajectories of overt conduct problems from ages 2 to 8. As in research on older children, 4 developmental trajectories were identified: a persistent problem trajectory, a high-level desister trajectory, a moderate-level desister trajectory, and a persistent low trajectory. Follow-up analyses indicated that initially high and low groups were differentiated in early childhood by high child fearlessness and elevated maternal depressive symptomatology. Persistent problem and high desister trajectories were differentiated by high child fearlessness and maternal rejecting parenting. The implications of the results for early intervention research are discussed, with an emphasis on the identification of at-risk parent-child dyads. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The Social Risk Hypothesis of Depressed Mood: Evolutionary, Psychosocial, and Neurobiological Perspectives.

The authors hypothesize that depressed states evolved to minimize risk in social interactions in which individuals perceive that the ratio of their social value to others, and their social burden on others, is at a critically low level. When this ratio reaches a point where social value and social burden are approaching equivalence, the individual is in danger of exclusion from social contexts that, over the course of evolution, have been critical to fitness. Many features of depressed states can be understood in relation to mechanisms that reduce social risk in such circumstances, including (a) hyper-sensitivity to signals of social threat from others, (b) sending signals to others that reduce social risks, and (c) inhibiting risk-seeking (e.g., confident, acquisitive) behaviors. These features are discussed in terms of psychosocial and neurobiological research on depressive phenomena. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

安徽省旱涝急转规律的认识与研究

旱涝急转是指某一地区或某一流域发生较长时间干旱时，突遇集中强降雨，引发山洪暴发、河水陡涨．客水入侵、内水难以及时外排的一种自然现象。旱涝急转极易造成人员伤亡、水库垮坝等重大经济损失。在防汛抗旱中，安徽省要充分认识旱涝急转的危害性，加强应急管理，具体包括思想上保持高度的警觉，加快防汛抗旱工程体系和预测预警体系建设，有效应对旱涝急转。     

全球气候变暖对水资源的影响

全球气候变暖加剧了干旱、洪涝、台风等自然灾害的发生，是目前各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的热点问题。根据有关资料对气候变暖研究进展情况作相关介绍，可供参考。     

辽宁省2000年夏季干旱分析

本文针对辽宁省2000年发生的干旱,从大气环流、气候、降水、径流、水资源量等方面,较系统地阐述了各因素的发展规律、特点及物理成因。采用降水指标、径流指标、受旱率进行干旱程度分析。评价出辽宁省2000年干旱为特大干旱。     

转制科研单位建立和完善内部会计控制的探讨

针对目前大多数科研单位在内部会计控制中存在的问题,根据财政部颁布的《内部会计控制规范一基本规范》,探讨了科研单位在转制过程中应如何建立和完善内部会计控制制度,以达到防范经营风险,保护资产安全、完整,确保经营管理目标和政策有效实施.     

辽宁省2002年水情趋势预测

针对辽宁省旱涝发生的基本规律,系统介绍多年来开展水文中长期预报所应用的理论和方法,总结水情趋势预测工作的经验,对2002年水情趋势进行分析预测。     

中国的主要水问题及水文学的机遇

从水资源开发利用与保护、水旱灾害防治等方面论述中国当前存在的主要水问题：水危机和水浪费同时存在、水污染日趋严重、防洪减灾任重道远、生态环境破坏严重、全球气候变暖产生不利影响；进而论述水文学研究面临的新课题：水文现象的不确定性、人类活动对水文的影响、水位频率计算、水资源开发利用的最佳效应、水资源供需分析、农业节水灌溉机理及水旱灾害的防治，并指出必须加强对这些新课题的研究     

Non-parametric empirical Bayes procedure

In this paper we introduce an empirical Bayes procedure for estimating an unknown parameter, say θ. This procedure gives the empirical Bayes estimator for θ and its associated minimum posterior risk in closed forms without estimating the unknown prior density function of θ. In such procedure the posterior probability density function of θ is not required. A sufficient statistic for θ with conditional probability density function in the one parameter exponential family is required. Instead of estimating the unknown prior density function, the marginal density function of the sufficient statistic must be estimated. As special cases the empirical Bayes estimators and their respective minimum posterior risks of the failure rate for the exponential distribution, the unknown scale parameters of Weibull and gamma distributions are obtained in simple forms as special cases. Numerical results and a simulation study are introduced to (i) investigate how the number of available past experiments and the sample size of each influence the accuracy of the empirical Bayes estimator, (ii) make a comparison between the presented procedure and the Bayes procedure when the prior probability density function of the parameter θ is gamma.