Change Point Estimation in the Mean of Multivariate Linear Profiles with No Change Type Assumption via Dynamic Linear Model

Change point estimation is a useful concept that helps quality engineers to effectively search for assignable causes and improve quality of the process or product. In this paper, the maximum likelihood approach is developed to estimate change point in the mean of multivariate linear profiles in Phase II. After the change point, parameters are estimated through filtering and smoothing approaches in dynamic linear model. The proposed change point estimator can be applied without any prior knowledge about the change type against existing estimators which assume change type is known in advance. Besides, sporadic change point can be identified as well. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed estimators to estimate step, drift and monotonic, as well as sporadic changes in small to large shifts. In addition, effect of different values of the Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) control chart smoothing coefficient on the performance of the proposed estimator is investigated presenting that the smoothing estimator has more uniform performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic fatigue behaviour of a steatite ceramic

Dynamic fatigue of a low dielectric loss steatite was investigated. To this end, the values of n and B, the so‐called subcritical crack growth (SCG) parameters were experimentally determined. The steatite exhibited the expected dynamic fatigue behaviour, so that the stress corrosion susceptibility parameter, n, of 24 was obtained. In addition, the material/environment parameter B, which is a constant for a given test environment, was also attained. These parameters are instrumental in predicting the lifetime of components under stress. When the applied load is such that the resulting strength equals half of the inert strength (σ_i), defined as the strength of a sample tested in an inert environment or at a fast stress rate, i.e. where no subcritical crack growth occurs, the time to failure (t_f) of the material was found to be ～140 h. Measurement of the fracture toughness of steatite is also of upmost importance and so it was determined using three test methods. A value of K_Ic = 1.91 ± 0.29 MPa m^1/2 was attained by the indentation fracture method through measurement of the cracks emanating from the Vickers indentation. This value is in good agreement with those determined using the K_Isc (surface crack in flexure) test method (2.21 ± 0.07 MPa m^1/2) and fractography analysis test method (2.00 ± 0.44 MPa m^1/2). Differences in test procedure and analysis causing the values from each test method to be different are discussed.     

空间站展开机构的失谐动态响应分析

考虑了动力失谐、质量失谐和摩擦失谐三种常见失谐现象,研究了空间站展开机构的失谐动态响应。利用多柔体系统动力学方法,在机械系统动力学自动分析(ADAMS)仿真平台下建立了空间站柔性展开机构的失谐模型,并用重要度抽样方法随机抽取失谐量,然后进行机构动学仿真,得到机构的失谐动态响应并进行统计。仿真研究证明,该方法可用较少的计算时间得到柔性展开机构的失谐动态响应随机分布特性。     

噻二唑型缓蚀剂缓蚀性能的研究

利用电化学测试和表面分析技术,研究了2,5-二巯基-1,3,4噻二唑(DMTD)在硫-乙醇溶液中对金属银、铜的缓蚀性能,结合量子化学计算和分子动力学模拟对DMTD在金属表面的吸附行为和缓蚀作用机理进行了分析讨论。结果表明,DMTD在50mg/L的硫-乙醇溶液中,对金属银、铜均起到较好的缓蚀作用。极化曲线结果表明,当缓蚀剂DMTD浓度达到50mg/L时,缓蚀效率可以达到92.3%。表面分析技术表明,缓蚀剂的加入在金属表面形成吸附膜,明显抑制了腐蚀速率。量化计算和分子动力学模拟得到了缓蚀剂分子的活性位点和缓蚀剂在金属表面的吸附形态。     

团体标准协调机理研究:一个动态分析

从标准经济学属性上,团体标准是介于事实标准和正式标准之间的一类标准.如何协调好事实标准和正式标准之间的选择关系是团体标准微观层面高效的关键.本文基于"囚徒困境"经典双人博弈模型,构建三阶段协调博弈模型分析团体标准在演化过程中事实标准与正式标准的协调选择问题.研究表明,在已知未来正式标准(即团体标准)优于事实标准以及正式标准的绩效高于事实标准的前提下,低折现和参与者缺乏耐心能够促成尽早"合作".在此基础上,本文基于实际给出提高团体标准收益预期、加快标准版本更新速率和重视"小"企业等政策建议.     

Precise identification of moving vehicular parameters based on improved glowworm swarm optimization algorithm

This paper proposes an indirect method for the identification of moving vehicular parameters using the dynamic responses of the vehicle. The moving vehicle is modelled as 2-DOF system with 5 parameters and 4-DOF system with 12 parameters, respectively. Finite element method is used to establish the equation of the coupled bridge–vehicle system. The dynamic responses of the system are calculated by Newmark direct integration method. The parameter identification problem is transformed into an optimization problem by minimizing errors between the calculated dynamic responses of the moving vehicle and those of the simulated measured responses. Glowworm swarm optimization algorithm (GSO) is used to solve the objective function of the optimization problem. A local search method is introduced into the movement phase of GSO to enhance the accuracy and convergence rate of the algorithm. Several test cases are carried out to verify the efficiency of the proposed method and the results show that the vehicular parameters can be identified precisely with the present method and it is not sensitive to artificial measurement noise.