An expert decision support system for network routing: a case study

The paper presents a case study of the development of an expert decision support system which uses simple heuristic methods for fast determination of routes for simultaneous signals in a transmission network of limited capacity. It illustrates how heuristic solutions can be embodied in a model-based DSS and how the standard decision support literature, although intuitively appealing, provides little practical assistance in system construction or classification     

现场地质预测与决策技术

油气的生成、运移、分布、成藏、保存具有规律性，技术人员可以依据其规律性对地下地质情况进行推理、预测和决策。钻井过程的现场地质预测技术方法主要是外推法、因果法和直观法三大类。外推法是常用的预测方法，包含了岩性、沉积旋回、标志层、标准层、重矿物等岩石地层学对比方法和生物地层学方法及地球物理方法。现场地质预测与决策是通过确定预测目标、收集相关资料、进行对比分析、形成地质预测结果、拟定地质决策方案、方案优选、方案实施等环节来完成。该技术是现场地质监督的核心技术，在实践中取得显著成效。     

Using the analytic network process (ANP) in a SWOT analysis - A case study for a textile firm

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis does not provide an analytical means to determine the importance of the identified factors or the ability to assess decision alternatives according to these factors. Although the analysis successfully pinpoints the factors, individual factors are usually described briefly and very generally. For this reason, SWOT analysis possesses deficiencies in the measurement and evaluation steps. Although the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique removes these deficiencies, it does not allow for measurement of the possible dependencies among the factors. The AHP method assumes that the factors presented in the hierarchical structure are independent; however, this assumption may be inappropriate in light of certain internal and external environmental effects. Therefore, it is necessary to employ a form of SWOT analysis that measures and takes into account the possible dependency among the factors. This paper demonstrates a process for quantitative SWOT analysis that can be performed even when there is dependence among strategic factors. The proposed algorithm uses the analytic network process (ANP), which allows measurement of the dependency among the strategic factors, as well as AHP, which is based on the independence between the factors. Dependency among the SWOT factors is observed to effect the strategic and sub-factor weights, as well as to change the strategy priorities.     

An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes

An actor-critic type reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed and analyzed for constrained controlled Markov decision processes. The analysis uses multiscale stochastic approximation theory and the envelope theorem' of mathematical economics.     

A method for the efficient prioritization of infrastructure renewal projects

The infrastructure renewal program at MIT consists of a large number of projects with an estimated budget that could approach $1 billion. Infrastructure renewal at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is the process of evaluating and investing in the maintenance of facility systems and basic structure to preserve existing campus buildings. The selection and prioritization of projects must be addressed with a systematic method for the optimal allocation of funds and other resources. This paper presents a case study of a prioritization method utilizing multi-attribute utility theory. This method was developed at MIT's Department of Nuclear Engineering and was deployed by the Department of Facilities after appropriate modifications were implemented to address the idiosyncrasies of infrastructure renewal projects and the competing criteria and constraints that influence the judgment of the decision-makers. Such criteria include minimization of risk, optimization of economic impact, and coordination with academic policies, programs, and operations of the Institute. A brief overview of the method is presented, as well as the results of its application to the prioritization of infrastructure renewal projects. Results of workshops held at MIT with the participation of stakeholders demonstrate the feasibility of the prioritization method and the usefulness of this approach.     

1998年九江抗洪启示录

简述1998年江西特大洪水的基本情况，重点介绍了九江防洪的形势和九江长江城防堤4～5号闸口间堤段溃决的情况及堵口过程，并总结了经验教训和抗洪工作的体会．     

一种基于时间分层决策矩阵的综合评价算法

综合评价系统用四元总体（A，Z，X^(k)，D）表示，其中决策矩阵X^(k)是具有对象维i,指标维j,时间维k的三维矩阵，将三维矩阵X（k)按时间划分形成m个二维矩阵，每个二维矩阵分别代表每个年度n个评价对象对应于p个指标的属性集，讨论了按时间分层决策矩阵的多指标综合评价问题，描述了按时间分层的决策矩阵的求解算法，并采用Visual Foxpro数据库语言编程实现。     

Adaptive flexibility and maladaptive routines in selecting fast and frugal decision strategies.

Decision routines unburden the cognitive capacity of the decision maker. In changing environments, however, routines may become maladaptive. In 2 experiments with a hypothetical stock market game (n = 241), the authors tested whether decision routines tend to persist at the level of decision strategies rather than at the level of options in strategy selection. The payoff structure of the task was changed after 80 decision trials, rendering a new strategy optimal with respect to expected payoff. Whereas most participants detected the appropriate strategy at the beginning of the task, they tended to retain it even when it was no longer optimal. A hint about a possible change had only a small influence on this maladaptive routine; a monetary incentive had none. Switching to a similar but not identical task relaxed the routine, but not much. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

利用模糊评判方法确定张东构造油藏储量计算的可靠程度

张巨河油田张东构造地处大港滩海交接处,海域部分探井少.目前用油藏描述方法计算的探明储量,其落实程度备受关注.储量落实程度的评价是一个多因素综合评判问题,而且这些因素还分属不同层次.模糊综合评判是应用较为广泛的模糊数学方法之一.该方法建立的综合评判涉及三个要素,即因素集、评判集和单因素评判,由此所构造的模糊评判关系是模糊综合评判的基础.本文用该方法对张东构造沙二段油藏的探明储量落实程度作了尝试性评价.     

堆底熔穿事故的场外后果及其对策

在压水堆核电站应急计划和应急响应中，堆底熔穿事故占有重要位置。本文用法国核电厂事故源项Ｓ３（对应于堆底熔穿事故）计算了在典型气象条件下的场外放射学的后果，根据一般防护决策原则和我国颁布的干预水平，提出了保护公众的应急防护措施的建议。