Giant hogweed at its northern distribution limit in North America: Experiments for a better understanding of its dispersal dynamics along rivers

We studied the reproduction and dispersal of giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum) at its northern distribution limit in North America (Québec, 2014–2016) to better understand the invasion dynamics of the species along rivers. Seeds were collected from a riparian population to conduct germination, floatation, and dispersal experiments. Data were analysed in comparison with a real invasion case that was initiated about 10 years ago along a river system. In Québec, giant hogweed individuals produce on average 14,000 to 16,000 seeds with a germination rate of 75–85%. Seeds with endosperm that fall in water likely sink within 5 hr. Along a small brook, most disperse over short distances (<40 m) in summer, although some can travel 100–300 m. These data suggest that late‐summer or early‐fall water dispersal of seeds would not explain the magnitude and rapidity of the invasion patterns observed along streams. We suggest that late‐fall and, especially, spring floods are the most efficient dispersal vectors for giant hogweed seeds and are likely responsible for the establishment of populations kilometres downstream from introduction points along river systems. The spread of giant hogweed would consequently be less influenced in the near future by a rise in temperature than by a change in the magnitude or timing of flood events.     

Robust spatial flood vulnerability assessment for Han River using fuzzy TOPSIS with α-cut level set

This study aims to improve the general flood vulnerability approach using fuzzy TOPSIS based on α-cut level sets which can reduce the uncertainty inherent in even fuzzy multi-criteria decision making process. Since fuzzy TOPSIS leads to a crisp closeness for each alternative, it is frequently argued that fuzzy weights and fuzzy ratings should be in fuzzy relative closeness. Therefore, this study used a modified α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS to develop a spatial flood vulnerability approach for Han River in Korea, considering various uncertainties in weights derivation and crisp data aggregation. Two results from fuzzy TOPSIS and modified fuzzy TOPSIS were compared. Some regions which showed no or small ranking changes have their centro-symmetric distributions, while other regions whose rankings varied dynamically, have biased (anti-symmetric) distributions. It can be concluded that α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS produce more robust prioritization since more uncertainties can be considered. This method can be applied to robust spatial vulnerability or decision making in water resources management.     

面向口语统计语言模型建模的自动语料生成算法

在资源相对匮乏的自动语音识别(Automatic speech recognition, ASR)领域, 如面向电话交谈的语音识别系统中, 统计语言模型(Language model, LM)存在着严重的数据稀疏问题. 本文提出了一种基于等概率事件的采样语料生成算法, 自动生成领域相关的语料, 用来强化统计语言模型建模. 实验结果表明, 加入本算法生成的采样语料可以缓解语言模型的稀疏性, 从而提升整个语音识别系统的性能. 在开发集上语言模型的困惑度相对降低7.5%, 字错误率(Character error rate, CER)绝对降低0.2个点; 在测试集上语言模型的困惑度相对降低6%, 字错误率绝对降低0.4点.     

基于MIKE FLOOD的洪泽湖周边滞洪区洪水演进模拟研究

基于实测断面资料建立了研究区的一维水动力模型,基于高精度DEM以及1∶10000地形图建立了研究区的二维水动力模型,并用MIKE FLOOD将一维模型和二维模型进行耦合,构建了洪泽湖周边滞洪区一、二维耦合的洪水演进数学模型。利用2003年历史洪水资料对模型参数进行了率定,并以2007年历史洪水资料进行了验证。以洪泽湖百年一遇设计洪水为模型上边界,二河闸、三河闸以及高良涧闸的现行调度方案的水位-流量关系为模型下边界,对洪泽湖百年一遇设计洪水方案进行模拟计算,当蒋坝水位达到14.33m时,洪泽湖周边滞洪区开始滞洪,得到开始滞洪后不同时段研究区内各类洪水风险要素的动态分布情况以及最大淹没水深、淹没历时,验证了模型的合理性,可用于蓄滞洪区洪水演算分析。     

Flood Inundation Modelling for Mid‐Lower Brisbane Estuary

This study utilizes a two‐dimensional hydrodynamic model to calibrate and validate an inundation model for the Brisbane River estuary in Queensland, Australia. The bathymetry data used in the hydraulic model are derived from one arc second (1 s) shuttle radar topography mission digital elevation model, and the two‐dimensional hydraulic model is parameterized using the generated bathymetry with four open boundaries with water level observations and roughness coefficients. The calibration performance is evaluated by comparing the simulated results with the digitized records during the January 2013 flood event (a low magnitude event) at three gauging stations. The calibrated model is validated with water level data and available discharge data during the January 2011 flood (a large magnitude event) at four gauging stations located along the Brisbane River. Different performance indices are applied to demonstrate that the developed model performs well during calibration and validation. A sensitivity analysis is presented to assess the influence of riverbed elevation changes on the model because the main uncertainty of the model is the bathymetry data. The proposed model with the shuttle radar topography mission digital elevation model‐derived riverbed elevation for the Brisbane estuary is able to predict the flood inundation extent at an accuracy of 66.9% which is higher than or comparable with the accuracies of the existing studies. However, it is expected that the accuracy will increase if some improved bathymetry data become available in the future. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

溪源泄洪洞出口处闽江设计水位分析研究

溪源泄洪洞出口位于闽江之上,为分析泄洪洞出口处的设计水位,采用设计流量和水位流量关系推求法及实测水位资料推求法两种方法对工程设计水位进行计算,经过合理性分析,工程所在地近年水位变化剧烈,采用设计流量和水位流量关系推求法更符合现状情况,为工程建设提供可靠的设计成果。     

面板堆石坝垫层渡汛离心模型试验研究

西北口水库大坝是我国建设的第一座百米级钢筋混凝土面板堆石坝,其百年一遇洪水渡汛水位降落幅度21.63 m,水位骤降速度最大可达3.65 m/h。面板尚未浇筑前的堆石坝体需临时拦洪渡汛,坝体垫层既起面板垫层作用,还要保证堆石坝体安全渡汛,水位骤降对垫层将产生拖拽力作用,影响到垫层的稳定性。本文通过面板堆石坝垫层渡汛离心模型试验,对不同渗透性垫层安全渡汛进行了试验研究,试验研究成果被西北口面板堆石坝工程施工期安全渡汛设计采纳,为面板坝工程建设特别是施工期安全渡汛提供了技术支撑。     

苗家坝-碧口梯级水库汛期水位动态控制研究

本文将单一水库预泄能力约束法,推广到梯级水库汛期水位动态控制中,并建立了梯级水库汛期水位联合运用和动态控制模型,假定预报信息准确,在不降低下游保护对象的防洪标准的前提下,最大限度发挥梯级水库的兴利效益。以苗家坝、碧口水库为对象进行了实时调度模拟,其结果相比于原设计汛限水位动态控制方案,减少了弃水,且保证最大出库流量均在可控范围内,达到在不降低防洪标准的前提下提高梯级水库兴利效益的目的,大大提高了洪水资源利用率。