西江流域压咸风险调度及其时空传递规律研究

枯水期珠江河口咸潮情势日益加重,径流不确定加剧了压咸风险,严重威胁沿线的供水安全。本文基于概率密度分布描述径流不确定性,构建了单源风险调度基本框架。以西江流域五座水库为研究对象,量化了预报误差与压咸风险的响应关系;揭示了压咸风险的时空传递规律;将压咸风险划分为3个等级;确定出各级风险越级传递的临界阈值。研究表明：随预报误差的增大,压咸风险提前且持续天数增加、风险率增大;压咸风险呈逐时段累积和从上游向下游、从支流向干流的时空传递规律;当预报误差超过±16%、±21%时,压咸风险从轻险越级至中险、中险越级至重险。研究成果对于西江流域压咸风险的调控和粤港澳大湾区的供水安全具有重要的应用价值。     

对我国乙烯工业发展的几点思考

阐述了世界乙烯工业现状、发展特点以及新型工艺技术分析，重点对我国乙烯工业总体发展水平、生产、消费、进出口贸易作了详细的讨论。在此基础上对我国乙烯工业发展方向、方式和规划提出了建议。     

Robust spatial flood vulnerability assessment for Han River using fuzzy TOPSIS with α-cut level set

This study aims to improve the general flood vulnerability approach using fuzzy TOPSIS based on α-cut level sets which can reduce the uncertainty inherent in even fuzzy multi-criteria decision making process. Since fuzzy TOPSIS leads to a crisp closeness for each alternative, it is frequently argued that fuzzy weights and fuzzy ratings should be in fuzzy relative closeness. Therefore, this study used a modified α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS to develop a spatial flood vulnerability approach for Han River in Korea, considering various uncertainties in weights derivation and crisp data aggregation. Two results from fuzzy TOPSIS and modified fuzzy TOPSIS were compared. Some regions which showed no or small ranking changes have their centro-symmetric distributions, while other regions whose rankings varied dynamically, have biased (anti-symmetric) distributions. It can be concluded that α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS produce more robust prioritization since more uncertainties can be considered. This method can be applied to robust spatial vulnerability or decision making in water resources management.     

2000年化肥工业发展的几个问题

本文分析预测了我国２０００年的化肥需求量和世界化肥市场价格及其对我国化肥发展的影响。     

Flood Inundation Modelling for Mid‐Lower Brisbane Estuary

This study utilizes a two‐dimensional hydrodynamic model to calibrate and validate an inundation model for the Brisbane River estuary in Queensland, Australia. The bathymetry data used in the hydraulic model are derived from one arc second (1 s) shuttle radar topography mission digital elevation model, and the two‐dimensional hydraulic model is parameterized using the generated bathymetry with four open boundaries with water level observations and roughness coefficients. The calibration performance is evaluated by comparing the simulated results with the digitized records during the January 2013 flood event (a low magnitude event) at three gauging stations. The calibrated model is validated with water level data and available discharge data during the January 2011 flood (a large magnitude event) at four gauging stations located along the Brisbane River. Different performance indices are applied to demonstrate that the developed model performs well during calibration and validation. A sensitivity analysis is presented to assess the influence of riverbed elevation changes on the model because the main uncertainty of the model is the bathymetry data. The proposed model with the shuttle radar topography mission digital elevation model‐derived riverbed elevation for the Brisbane estuary is able to predict the flood inundation extent at an accuracy of 66.9% which is higher than or comparable with the accuracies of the existing studies. However, it is expected that the accuracy will increase if some improved bathymetry data become available in the future. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

苗家坝-碧口梯级水库汛期水位动态控制研究

本文将单一水库预泄能力约束法,推广到梯级水库汛期水位动态控制中,并建立了梯级水库汛期水位联合运用和动态控制模型,假定预报信息准确,在不降低下游保护对象的防洪标准的前提下,最大限度发挥梯级水库的兴利效益。以苗家坝、碧口水库为对象进行了实时调度模拟,其结果相比于原设计汛限水位动态控制方案,减少了弃水,且保证最大出库流量均在可控范围内,达到在不降低防洪标准的前提下提高梯级水库兴利效益的目的,大大提高了洪水资源利用率。     

基于全概率公式直接推求管运洪水

本文为保证防洪安全的前提下充分发挥水库的综合效益,提出了基于全概率公式推求管运洪水的方法,并详细阐述了其基本原理;提出了在资料较短或前、后汛期洪水特性大致相同的情况下运用全概率公式推求管运洪水的实际方法;以马边站的洪水资料进行实例研究,其结果表明基于全概率公式推算出来的管运洪水既能使水库工程达到防洪标准,又能充分发挥水库的综合效益。     

异常高压气井生产动态仿真研究及应用

异常高压气井生产动态仿真方法不仅改变了传统物理仿真成本高、过程复杂的缺点,而且具备了计算机仿真模拟的准确性。考虑异常高压气井流体高压、高温的特点,本文将异常高压气井生产压降分解为地层流动压降、井筒流动压降和嘴流流动压降三个过程,并建立了气井生产动态流动数学模型;本文利用计算机仿真技术模拟了异常高压气井地层流体流动过程、井筒流体流动过程和气嘴流体流动过程,并预测了气井生产动态流动参数,为下步异常高压气井动态配产提供了基础数据。通过实例分析,将计算机仿真预测出的异常高压气井流动参数代入优化配产模型计算出配产结果与实际配产结果十分接近,表明异常高压气井生产动态仿真对实际生产具有重要的指导意义。     

对投资子午胎产业热潮的思考

面对80亿元人民币投资我国子午胎产业的热潮，冷静解剖轮胎产业和市场，按照经济结构分析企业发展趋势，预测子午胎企业2003年市场需求和近几年发展总趋势。提出构筑子午胎企业竞争优势的战略大框架，建议组建国家级联合舰队，提升我国子午胎行业的国际竞争力，规避市场风险。     

我国合成树脂工业发展概况及前景

分析了我国合成树脂生产、消费及进出口情况。近几年我国合成树脂工业发展很快，2003年合成树脂产量达到15．938Mt，其中聚乙烯、聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、聚苯乙烯和丙烯腈丁二烯苯乙烯(ABS)树脂总生产能力为16．721Mt，产量为15．434Mt，表观消费量为28．358Mt。预计2005-2010年我国五大合成树脂需求的年均增长率为6．8％，2005年需求量将达到32．j60Mt。