Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement

The metric representing the wind energy forecast error, when reported as a percent, is calculated quite differently than the error metrics for electricity transmission, electricity load, or in other industries such as manufacturing when they are also reported as a percent. The resulting calculated metric is quite different from what would be reported if the method utilized elsewhere was employed. This paper examines the possible forecast assessment and operational challenges associated with this finding. Concerning the prospects for improvement, the errors reported in MW of energy have a systematic component. With this insight, we developed a model to improve accuracy.     

构皮滩水电站泄洪洞优化设计

构皮滩水电站为满足2008年12月工程提前发电的需要,结合现有泄洪洞地质情况和施工情况对泄洪洞布置进行了专题研究,结果表明利用降低进口高程为550 m的泄洪洞和坝身放空底孔联合参与后期导流,可缓解2007年导流隧洞下闸封堵后大坝在2008年汛期施工的压力,为大坝施工增加了2个月左右的工期。     

Model Selection for Unsupervised Learning of Visual Context

This study addresses the problem of choosing the most suitable probabilistic model selection criterion for unsupervised learning of visual context of a dynamic scene using mixture models. A rectified Bayesian Information Criterion (BICr) and a Completed Likelihood Akaike’s Information Criterion (CL-AIC) are formulated to estimate the optimal model order (complexity) for a given visual scene. Both criteria are designed to overcome poor model selection by existing popular criteria when the data sample size varies from small to large and the true mixture distribution kernel functions differ from the assumed ones. Extensive experiments on learning visual context for dynamic scene modelling are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of BICr and CL-AIC, compared to that of existing popular model selection criteria including BIC, AIC and Integrated Completed Likelihood (ICL). Our study suggests that for learning visual context using a mixture model, BICr is the most appropriate criterion given sparse data, while CL-AIC should be chosen given moderate or large data sample sizes.     

Beneficial effects of wettability altering surfactants in oil-wet fractured reservoirs

In fractured reservoirs, an effective matrix-fracture mass transfer is required for oil recovery. Surfactants have long been considered for oil recovery enhancement, mainly in terms of their ability to reduce oil–water interfacial tension. These surfactants are effective when the fractured formations are water-wet, where capillary imbibition of surfactants from the fracture into the matrix contributes to oil recovery. However, another beneficial aspect of surfactants, namely their ability to alter wettability, remains to be explored and exploited. Surfactants capable of altering wettability can be especially beneficial in oil-wet fractured formations, where the surfactant in the fracture diffuses into the matrix and alters the wettability, enabling imbibition of even more surfactant into the matrix. This sequential process of initial diffusion followed by imbibition continues well into the matrix yielding significant enhancements in oil recovery.In order to test this hypothesis of sequential diffusion–imbibition phenomenon, Dual-Drop Dual-Crystal (DDDC) contact angle experiments have been conducted using fractured Yates dolomite reservoir fluids, two types of surfactants (nonionic and anionic) and dolomite rock substrates. A new experimental procedure was developed in which crude oil equilibrated with reservoir brine has been exposed to surfactant to simulate the matrix-fracture interactions in fractured reservoirs. This procedure enables the measurements of dynamic contact angles and oil–water interfacial tensions, in addition to providing the visual observations of the dynamic behavior of crude oil trapped in the rock matrix as it encounters the diffusing surfactant from the fractures. Both the measurements and visual observations indicate wettability alterations of the matrix surface from oil-wet to less oil-wet or intermediate wet by the surfactants. Thus this study is of practical importance to oil-wet fractured formations where surfactant-induced wettability alterations can result in significant oil recovery enhancements. In addition, this study has also identified the need to include contact angle term in the dimensionless Bond number formulations for better quantitative interpretation of rock–fluids interactions.     

稠油微生物开采技术现状及进展

综述了用微生物方法开采稠油的技术现状与进展，论题如下。①概述。②基本方法：异源微生物采油，包括微生物吞吐和微生物驱；本源微生物采油压大港孔店油田的实例。③主要机理，包括产表面活性剂，降解稠油中重质组分及其他。④技术研究，包括机理性、可行性及经济效益研究，列举了国内外6个实例。⑤现场应用，包括国外1个、国内6个实例。⑥该技术的优势及问题。参22。     

一种可替代漂珠的低密度材料

漂珠低密度水泥浆由于密度低、强度高、体系稳定而在油田低压易漏层及低压油气层长封固段固井作业中获得了广泛的应用。但近年来,由于漂珠的产量越来越少,油田低成本要求急需开发代替漂珠的新型减轻材料,以满足配制低密度水泥浆的需求。开发了BCL-10S低密度混合减轻材料,其物化性能与漂珠相当,用它作减轻剂配制的低密度水泥浆性能与用漂珠作减轻剂配制的低密度水泥浆性能相媲美,并已经在长庆油田获得了应用。     

油藏演化的两个极端过程

油气藏形成之后，在地质务件变化不大的情况下，储集层中的油气一般保持相对的稳定。但当地质条件变化较大时，油气藏中则发生明显的蚀变。其中两个极端的演化过程，一是抬升破坏形成生物降解沥青，一是深埋发生原油裂解转化成焦沥青和天然气。生物降解沥青没有一定的形态．在显微镜下呈席状分布，沥青反射率低，抽提物具有明显的生物降解特征。原油裂解形成的焦沥青具有一定的几何形态，沥青反射率很高而无常规抽提物。原油裂解生成的天然气在组分和碳同位素特征上与干酪根裂解生成的天然气有别。图6参15     

Multiple Scan Chain Design for Two-Pattern Testing

Non-standard fault models often require the application of two-pattern testing. A fully-automated approach for generating a multiple scan chain-based architecture is presented so that two-pattern test sets generated for the combinational core can be applied to the sequential circuit. Test time and area overhead constraints are considered.     

湘中海相浅层湘冷1井酸压工艺研究及应用

湘冷1井具有气层埋藏浅（400m-500m）、纵向上裂隙发育的特点，属低孔、低渗的含泥质灰岩致密储层。大量室内实验和研究采用“前置液酸压＋闭合酸化”工艺技术，并优选了相应降阻酸和闭合酸配方。通过酸压实现了该井工业油气流的突破，取得了明显的增产效果，为新区海相浅层气的开发探索出了一套成熟的改造增产措施。     

射孔完井出砂预测新模型及其在射孔优化中的应用

分析了射孔完井的油层出砂机理，以线弹性理论为基础，考虑变温应力和流体渗流作用的拖曳力影响，建立了一种新的射孔完井出砂预测模型。应用该模型研究射孔方位、射孔参数对油井出砂的影响，结果表明，深穿透射孔弹比大孔半径射孔弹能更好地避免孔道出砂，采用定向射孔能有效地减少油井出砂问题。其结果对砂岩油藏射孔优化设计具有一定指导意义。