The impact of perceived risk,intangibility and consumer characteristics on online game playing

Online game is the most popular entertainment application in the virtual world and online gamers demonstrate high attachment to playing online games. Previous studies have linked to the numerous negative outcomes in playing online games. The factors contribute to the negative consequences on using online game have been relatively neglected. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of perceived risk, intangibility, gender and age (adolescent/adult) difference on online game playing consequences and intentions. Past usage frequency is also made to look into the influence additional purchase intention. A total of 1418 useful questionnaires (including 1018 from public interview and 400 from online questionnaire feedback) were collected for final data analysis. The results demonstrated the important roles that time risk, psychological risk, financial risk, physical intangibility, mental intangibility and generality play on the negative consequences associated with online game playing. The results also indicated that male and adolescent individuals spent much more time on online game and intented to act the entertainment more than females and adults did. Finally, past online game playing frequency was showed to be a positive predictor of future online game playing intention.     

软件安全性评估方法综述

软件安全性评估的目的是评价软件是否达到系统规范所要求的安全性。该文对国内外关于软件安全性评估的方法进行了分析,将其分为风险矩阵评估、模糊评估和基于可靠性模型的评估等类别,并对上述几种方法做了相应的比较。     

社保网络信息安全防护

本文针对各种威胁社保网络安全的多种因素,进行有的放矢地构建相应策略,综合立体地进行网络安全防护,构建了一个多方面考虑的安全网络,这样社保部门在保护计算机网络设备安全和计算机网络系统安全的同时也保护了数据的安全,为构建和谐社会贡献力量。     

贝叶斯网络分类模型研究及其在信用评估中的应用

基于概率估计的贝叶斯及贝叶斯网络分类模型,拥有其它数据挖掘工具所不具备的优势。在分析贝叶斯及贝叶斯网络分类模型基础上,结合最小风险决策准则,提出了一种新的信用评估模型。在实际数据集上采用交叉验证方式进行了测试。实验结果表明基于最小风险决策准则的贝叶斯及贝叶斯网络分类模型可以有效地减少信用评估风险。     

Evaluating methods of investment project and optimizing models of portfolio selection in fuzzy uncertainty

This paper deals with the problems of both project valuation and portfolio selection under the assumption that the investment capitals and the net cash flows of the projects are fuzzy variables. Using the credibilistic expected value and the credibilistic lower semivariance of fuzzy variables, this paper proposes both the credibilistic return index and the credibilistic risk index, which are measures of investment return and investment risk with annuity form for evaluating single project. Moreover, a composite risk-return index for selecting the optimal investment strategy is also presented. Then, we set up a general project portfolio optimization model with fuzzy returns and two specific models: triangle and interval fuzzy returns. Furthermore, we provide two algorithms: the improved heuristic rules based on genetic algorithm and the traversal algorithm. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to illustrate the efficiency and the effectiveness of these proposed optimization methods.     

Selection of a dynamic supply portfolio in make-to-order environment withrisks

The problem of a multi-period supplier selection and order allocation in make-to-order environment in the presence of supply chain disruption and delay risks is considered. Given a set of customer orders for finished products, the decision maker needs to decide from which supplier and when to purchase product-specific parts required for each customer order to meet customer requested due date at a low cost and to mitigate the impact of supply chain risks. The selection of suppliers and the allocation of orders over time is based on price and quality of purchased parts and reliability of supplies. For selection of dynamic supply portfolio a mixed integer programming approach is proposed to incorporate risk that uses conditional value-at-risk via scenario analysis. In the scenario analysis, the low-probability and high-impact supply disruptions are combined with the high probability and low impact supply delays. The proposed approach is capable of optimizing the dynamic supply portfolio by calculating value-at-risk of cost per part and minimizing expected worst-case cost per part simultaneously. Numerical examples are presented and some computational results are reported.     

移动自组网中非完全信息节点风险评估

移动自组网是一种无中心、自组织以及多跳的无线网络,能否有效可靠地对通信节点进行风险评估是保障节点高质量通信的重要因素.当前基于可信度或是信誉的评估方法对评估样本都有特殊的要求,对评估对象提出种种假设,无法辨别间接样本的恶意推荐问题,在实际移动自组网中各个节点尤其是恶意节点对外暴漏的信息往往偏少,样本数量有限,无法明确判断其状态,大部分是非完全信息,从而导致评估结果缺乏客观性与可靠性.文中提出采用灰色系统理论描述通信节点非完全信息状态,根据灰类白化以及灰色聚类思想进行节点风险评估.方案针对自组网络通信需求对节点行为进行多关键属性划分,采用味集群方法收集原始样本,避免恶意推荐;将难以用数值精确刻画的关键属性以白化权函数量化,引入灰聚类的概念和计算方法,将实体的通信风险水平定义为实体关键属性值序列针对各评估灰类的聚类评估值,从而得到该实体通信风险水平的相对参考值.分析与实际计算表明该方法是一种适合移动自组网中非完全信息节点风险评估的有效方法.     

Pricing fuzzy vulnerable options and risk management

The assumption of unrealistic “identical rationality” in classic option pricing theory is released in this article to amend Klein’s [Klein, P. (1996). Pricing Black–Scholes options with correlated credit risk. Journal of Banking Finance, 1211–1129] vulnerable option pricing formula. Through this formula, default risk and liquidity risk are both well-explained when the investment behaviors and market expectations of the participants are heterogeneous. The numerical results show that when the investing decisions of each market participant come from their individual rationality and use their own subjective price to trade, the option price becomes a boundary. The upper boundary becomes an absolutely safe line and the lower boundary becomes an absolutely unsafe line for investors who want to invest in some financial securities with default risk. The proposed model suggests a more realistic pricing mechanism for the issuers and traders who want to value options with default risk.     

基于系统动力学的对虾养殖品质风险应用

针对目前南美白对虾养殖环节存在的溯源点不清晰、养殖过程监管薄弱、品质评价不健全等品质风险问题,以 HACCP 为基准,结合国内外在养殖环节关键影响要素研究现状,对养殖环节建模,利用判断树的方法初选品质风险控制的关键控制点,然后结合 Vensim 软件建立南美白对虾养殖品质风险动力学模型,从而确定关键控制点的核心影响因素。仿真结果表明：南美白对虾养殖品质风险动力学模型能动态仿真五类影响要素对于幼虾品质和成活率的变化关系,从而反映品质风险动态变化情况。由此为南美白对虾溯源管理信息系统中溯源点的选取和养殖过程的实时监控和过程品质动态评价提供理论参考。     

面向属性效应控制的等均值约束支持向量回归机

针对现有的属性效应控制方法无法有效控制非线性回归建模的属性效应问题, 基于间隔最大化和结构风险最小化原则, 通过向SVR 目标学习准则中施加等均值条件约束, 提出等均值支持向量回归机(EM-SVR). 所提出的方法具有较好的泛化能力, 同时继承了EM-LS 的良好性能. 实验结果验证了所提出方法的有效性.