A customised approach to determining the geomorphic effectiveness of small flood events in a regulated river

The construction of dams significantly alters flow and sediment regimes with subsequent deleterious effects on the morphological and ecological character of rivers. Effective experimental floods can ameliorate the downstream geomorphic impacts of dams. The traditional view is that large floods are required to perform effective geomorphic work, and the geomorphic outcomes of small floods are often overlooked. Many river restoration frameworks do not consider small floods. Yet, there is evidence that the hydrological characteristics that ameliorate specific geomorphic impacts in a river are unique to each river, and a customised approach to setting the right mix of floods (including small experimental floods) is needed. In this study, we modify an existing flood effectiveness model developed for large floods, for determining the geomorphic effectiveness of small floods in a highly regulated Australian river. Two flood classes were added to the model (medium peak stream power and moderate total energy expenditure), and the flood power characteristics were rescaled to reflect the relative difference in the magnitude of the small floods and the magnitude of the geomorphic work performed. Using a step‐wise approach, this customised model determined the geomorphic effectiveness of small floods. The best flood for ameliorating the geomorphic impacts of flow regulation had medium to long duration (10 to 51 days), high peak unit stream power (77 to 123 Wm^?2) and moderate to large total energy expenditure (78,600 to 342,320 × 10³ J). This approach to determining flood effectiveness for small floods is applicable to other geomorphically impacted river channels downstream of dams and can be used to inform experimental flood releases for geomorphic outcomes.     

Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers in Surface Sediment from Songhua River Basin, Northeast of China

Sixty sediment samples were collected from the main Songhua River in three years. Twelve polybrominated diphenyl ether ( PBDE) congeners ( BDE17, 28, 47, 66, 99, 100, 153, 154, 138, 183, and BDE?209) w...     

Risk reduction in Sechahun iron ore deposit by geological boundary modification using multiple indicator Kriging

Uncertainty on the geological contacts and the block volumes of the models along boundaries is often a major part of the global uncertainty of reserve estimation.This work introduces a geostatistical technique that has been developed and tested in an iron ore deposit at Bafq mining district,in central Iran,and that,based on a probability criterion,helps to objectively model the geometry of this iron ore deposit.The main problem in reserve estimation of this ore body is its geometrical modeling and uncertainty in geological boundaries.This work deals with the geostatistical method of multiple indicator kriging,which is used to determine the real boundaries of ore body in different categories.This approach has potential to improve project performance and decrease operational risk.For this purpose,the ore body is separated into two categories including rich iron zone （w（Fe）〉45%） and poor iron zone （20%〈w（Fe）〈45%）.It significantly benefits to decrease the risk of reserve evaluation in the deposit.This case study also highlights the value of multiple indicator kriging as a tool for estimates the position of grade boundaries within the deposit.Comparison of the resultant probability maps with the real ore/waste contacts on the extracted levels shows that the first indicator model could separate the whole ore body （poor plus rich） from the waste zone by probability of more than 0.35,which concludes the total reserve of 53 million tons.The second indicator model applied to separate the rich and poor domains and the results show that the blocks with the estimated probability of equal to or more than 0.4 lay within the rich ore zone consisting of 15.8 million tons reserve.     

Behavioural responses to risk on remote outcomes

Computer mediation of communication allows interaction with events remote in space or time. However, the uptake and use of videotechnology requires an understanding of its effects upon willingness to take risks. To understand how responses to remote events are influenced by computer mediation, the present study compared responses to collocated outcomes with those conveyed over a videolink or as pre-recordings. Willingness to risk on an outcome was quantified using wagering behaviour during a simulated game of roulette: measuring preferred outcome format, levels of risk sought, and times required to make decisions. Participants tended to be more confident of winning and preferred the collocated version of roulette. Participants took greater risks with pre-recorded video outcomes and tended to spend more time locating bets. For videolinked outcomes, participants were more cautious, hedging their bets, and taking more time deliberating the odds. Although the amounts wagered did not change, a potential predictability in pre-recordings appears to encourage risk taking, while the reduced presence inherent in real-time videolinks engenders caution.     

Computation of optimum reliability acceptance sampling plans in presence of hybrid censoring

The decision regarding acceptance or rejection of a lot of products may be considered through variables acceptance sampling plans based on suitable quality characteristics. A variables sampling plan to determine the acceptability of a lot of products based on the lifetime of the products is called reliability acceptance sampling plan (RASP). This work considers the determination of optimum RASP under cost constraint in the framework of hybrid censoring. Weibull lifetime models are considered for illustrations; however, the proposed methodology can be easily extended to any location-scale family of distributions. The proposed method is based on asymptotic results of the estimators of parameters of lifetime distribution. Hence, a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted in order to show that the sampling plans meet the specified risks for finite sample size.     

复杂信息系统风险评估框架与流程

复杂信息系统( CIS)在系统风险管理和风险评估上因其结构复杂性而存在较大难度。为此,基于Zachman框架,提出一种CIS风险评估框架,并在GB/T 20984-2007信息安全技术-信息安全风险评估规范基础上,建立CIS的风险评估流程。依据风险管理层次与安全域划分原则对CIS进行架构分解,研究安全域内和域间的评估方法。在传统风险要素的基础上增加CIS互联关系的风险要素。引入互信息表征互联关系的关联度,利用层次分析法对风险权重进行评估。结合实例对CIS风险评估流程进行验证,结果表明,该流程可对CIS风险做出客观准确的评估。     

地下结构震害风险信息融合方法研究

为提高地下结构震害风险判决的科学性和智能化水平,提出一种基于证据理论的地下结构震害风险信息融合方法。在地下结构震害风险智能监测的基础上,根据震害风险融合原理,构建基于智能监测和专家判决的地下结构震害风险融合模型。遵循证据理论的原则和模型规则,构造统一的地下结构震害状态空间和风险概率表达方式,建立风险融合证据框架,确定判决规则,设计风险融合证据模型组件。计算结果表明,该模型能有效提高地下结构震害信息诊断的可信度,充分显示了该融合模型组件的有效性。     

基于连通度算子的系统漏洞风险评估

为对安全漏洞的风险进行量化评估,提出一种基于连通度算子的漏洞风险评估方法。通过构建的漏洞攻击图对漏洞的利用关系进行定量分析,并提出两种连通度算子,对漏洞间的连通度进行计算,实现对漏洞自身风险和传播风险的量化分析;在此基础上提出风险评估算法VREA-CO,对系统漏洞的全局风险进行评估,评估结果能够帮助管理者确定关键漏洞,提高安全管理的效率。实例分析结果表明,该方法是可行有效的。     

港口油库安全监控系统的设计与实现

港口油库安全监控系统是在油库区域内按规范设置可燃、有毒气体监测探头报警装置,能够全面检测油库区域气体浓度情况,一旦超过预警值,立即进行自动报警至监控中心,并结合实时的气象监测(如风速、风向、温湿度、气压等气象状况)进行事故风险评估,预测可燃有毒气体危险危害扩散范围,从而采取有效防范措施,避免事故的发生。     

工业软件现场测试中的拆分及其测试数据设计

在工业软件的用户生产现场测试中,可能由于操作风险、用户生产限制等约束而导致测试不充分,针对实践中的难点提出新的现场测试过程及其测试数据生成方法。定义了测试拆分子集及相关属性概念,根据现场因素设计的测试拆分子集提高了现场测试可主动性;综合现场因素设计拆分方案,采用针对性的辅助管理程序引导每个测试拆分子集的现场测试的实施;通过对生产现场的历史数据的处理建立针对各测试拆分子集的测试准备数据库,以搜索测试准备数据库的结果为依据并结合现场因素设计现场主动测试的输入数据,并说明了实践中的综合实施过程。通过石化生产优化控制系统的现场测试的实际案例,说明了这种方法能够在预防风险的前提下显著提高现场测试的充分性和测试效率。