Viability of intertwined supply networks: extending the supply chain resilience angles towards survivability. A position paper motivated by COVID-19 outbreak

An intertwined supply network (ISN) is an entirety of interconnected supply chains (SC) which, in their integrity secure the provision of society and markets with goods and services. The ISNs are open systems with structural dynamics since the firms may exhibit multiple behaviours by changing the buyer-supplier roles in interconnected or even competing SCs. From the positions of resilience, the ISNs as a whole provide services to society (e.g. food service, mobility service or communication service) which are required to ensure a long-term survival. The analysis of survivability at the level of ISN requires a consideration at a large scale as resilience of individual SCs. The recent example of coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak clearly shows the necessity of this new perspective. Our study introduces a new angle in SC resilience research when a resistance to extraordinary disruptions needs to be considered at the scale of viability. We elaborate on the integrity of the ISN and viability. The contribution of our position study lies in a conceptualisation of a novel decision-making environment of ISN viability. We illustrate the viability formation through a dynamic game-theoretic modelling of a biological system that resembles the ISN. We discuss some future research areas.     

Genetic algorithm and self organizing map based fuzzy hybrid intelligent method for color image segmentation

The grouping of pixels based on some similarity criteria is called image segmentation. In this paper the problem of color image segmentation is considered as a clustering problem and a fixed length genetic algorithm (GA) is used to handle it. The effectiveness of GA depends on the objective function (fitness function) and the initialization of the population. A new objective function is proposed to evaluate the quality of the segmentation and the fitness of a chromosome. In fixed length genetic algorithm the chromosomes have same length, which is normally set by the user. Here, a self organizing map (SOM) is used to determine the number of segments in order to set the length of a chromosome automatically. An opposition based strategy is adopted for the initialization of the population in order to diversify the search process. In some cases the proposed method makes the small regions of an image as separate segments, which leads to noisy segmentation. A simple ad hoc mechanism is devised to refine the noisy segmentation. The qualitative and quantitative results show that the proposed method performs better than the state-of-the-art methods.     

Quantitative risk assessment using a Japanese hydrogen refueling station model

Although hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are becoming widespread across Japan and are essential for the operation of fuel cell vehicles, they present potential hazards. A large number of accidents such as explosions or fires have been reported, rendering it necessary to conduct a number of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments for HRSs. Current safety codes and technical standards related to Japanese HRSs have been established based on the results of a qualitative risk assessment and quantitative effectiveness validation of safety measures over ten years ago. In the last decade, there has been much development in the technologies of the components or facilities used in domestic HRSs and much operational experience as well as knowledge to use hydrogen in HRSs safely have been gained through years of commercial operation. The purpose of the present study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the latest HRS model representing Japanese HRSs with the most current information and to identify the most significant scenarios that pose the greatest risks to the physical surroundings in the HRS model. The results of the QRA show that the risk contours of 10^?3 and 10^?4 per year were confined within the HRS boundaries, whereas the risk contours of 10^?5 and 10^?6 per year are still present outside the HRS. Comparing the breakdown of the individual risks (IRs) at the risk ranking points, we conclude that the risk of jet fire demonstrates the highest contribution to the risks at all of the risk ranking points and outside the station. To reduce these risks and confine the risk contour of 10^?6 per year within the HRS boundaries, it is necessary to consider risk mitigation measures for jet fires.     

Recent activities in the field of Nuclear Operational Management and Nuclear Safety Engineering

Recent activities in the field of Nuclear Operational Management and Nuclear Safety Engineering, the studies related to risk analysis methodology, design, and operational management, physical phenomena, and emergency preparedness and nuclear security, have been progressed. Especially, ‘risk analysis methodology’ and ‘design and operational management’ are the main categories of the field, in which more than half of published articles on Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology are related to these categories.     

[Zr0.73(Cu0.59Ni0.41)0.27]87Al13合金过冷液相区热塑性成形研究

为探究[Zr_(0.73)(Cu_(0.59)Ni_(0.41))_(0.27)]_(87)Al_(13)非晶合金的热塑性成形性能以及绘制其对应的热加工图谱,用Gleeble3500型热模拟压缩实验机对该非晶合金进行不同参数下的热模拟压缩实验。结果表明,合金在压缩过程中变形行为由牛顿流变演变为非牛顿流变;同时,过高或过低的热加工温度均能导致合金晶化;进一步对数据分析得到该合金在不同热塑性成形参数下的功率耗散图与流变失稳图,并绘制出相应的热加工谱图,谱图分析结果表明,该合金在温度为420与430℃、应变速率为10~(-3) s~(-1)时具有较高功率耗散系数且没有失稳区域,因此,合金可选的热塑性加工参数为温度420～430℃,应变速率10~(-3) s~(-1)。     

Skeletal Muscle Health and Cognitive Function: A Narrative Review

Sarcopenia is the loss of skeletal muscle mass and function with advancing age. It involves both complex genetic and modifiable risk factors, such as lack of exercise, malnutrition and reduced neurological drive. Cognitive decline refers to diminished or impaired mental and/or intellectual functioning. Contracting skeletal muscle is a major source of neurotrophic factors, including brain-derived neurotrophic factor, which regulate synapses in the brain. Furthermore, skeletal muscle activity has important immune and redox effects that modify brain function and reduce muscle catabolism. The identification of common risk factors and underlying mechanisms for sarcopenia and cognition may allow the development of targeted interventions that slow or reverse sarcopenia and also certain forms of cognitive decline. However, the links between cognition and skeletal muscle have not been elucidated fully. This review provides a critical appraisal of the literature on the relationship between skeletal muscle health and cognition. The literature suggests that sarcopenia and cognitive decline share pathophysiological pathways. Ageing plays a role in both skeletal muscle deterioration and cognitive decline. Furthermore, lifestyle risk factors, such as physical inactivity, poor diet and smoking, are common to both disorders, so their potential role in the muscle–brain relationship warrants investigation.     

Backtesting portfolio value-at-risk with estimated portfolio weights

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) with estimation risk in an intrinsically multi-variate framework. It particularly takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating portfolio weights and that from estimating the multi-variate dynamic model make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. It proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to implement valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. In particular, we apply our theory to the efficient mean-variance-skewness portfolio for a multi-variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with multi-variate general hyperbolic distributed innovations. Some Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate the merits of our method.     

The organization of biological sequences into constrained and unconstrained parts determines fundamental properties of genotype–phenotype maps

Biological information is stored in DNA, RNA and protein sequences, which can be understood as genotypes that are translated into phenotypes. The properties of genotype–phenotype (GP) maps have been studied in great detail for RNA secondary structure. These include a highly biased distribution of genotypes per phenotype, negative correlation of genotypic robustness and evolvability, positive correlation of phenotypic robustness and evolvability, shape-space covering, and a roughly logarithmic scaling of phenotypic robustness with phenotypic frequency. More recently similar properties have been discovered in other GP maps, suggesting that they may be fundamental to biological GP maps, in general, rather than specific to the RNA secondary structure map. Here we propose that the above properties arise from the fundamental organization of biological information into ‘constrained'' and ‘unconstrained'' sequences, in the broadest possible sense. As ‘constrained'' we describe sequences that affect the phenotype more immediately, and are therefore more sensitive to mutations, such as, e.g. protein-coding DNA or the stems in RNA secondary structure. ‘Unconstrained'' sequences, on the other hand, can mutate more freely without affecting the phenotype, such as, e.g. intronic or intergenic DNA or the loops in RNA secondary structure. To test our hypothesis we consider a highly simplified GP map that has genotypes with ‘coding'' and ‘non-coding'' parts. We term this the Fibonacci GP map, as it is equivalent to the Fibonacci code in information theory. Despite its simplicity the Fibonacci GP map exhibits all the above properties of much more complex and biologically realistic GP maps. These properties are therefore likely to be fundamental to many biological GP maps.     

腹腔手术后重症患者心肌损伤的危险因素

目的探讨腹腔手术后重症患者心肌损伤的发生情况及可能的危险因素。方法回顾性分析北京大学人民医院2017年1月至2019年1月腹腔手术后重症患者的一般临床资料及心肌损伤情况,收集并观察基础病史、术中(手术时间、是否急诊手术、术中出血>800 ml和术中低血压等)及术后指标(改良氧合指数、血乳酸、急性肾损伤和术后24 h内使用升压药情况等)。根据术后是否发生心肌损伤,将患者分为心肌损伤组和非心肌损伤组,采用Logistic回归分析腹腔手术后重症患者心肌损伤的危险因素。结果在纳入的803例腹腔手术后重症患者中,心肌损伤发生率为17. 2%(138/803),而急性心肌梗死发生率仅为0. 9%(7/803)。单因素分析显示,慢性肾功能不全病史、手术时间、急诊手术、术中低血压、术后24 h内使用升压药、高APACHEⅡ评分及术后即刻急性肾损伤与术后重症患者心肌损伤相关(P<0. 05)。多因素回归分析显示,急诊手术(OR=3. 14,95%CI:1. 76～5. 60,P<0. 001)、术后24 h内使用升压药(OR=2. 26,95%CI:1. 23～4. 15,P=0. 008)、APACHEⅡ评分(OR=1. 05,95%CI:1. 01～1. 09,P=0. 008)和术后急性肾损伤(OR=3. 18,95%CI:1. 78～5. 69,P <0. 001)与腹腔手术后重症患者发生心肌损伤独立相关。结论重症患者腹腔手术后心肌损伤发生率高,急诊手术、术后24 h内使用升压药、高APACHEⅡ评分和术后急性肾损伤是导致腹腔手术后重症患者发生心肌损伤的独立危险因素。     

Survey of domestic food purchases and related home handling practices in the Abruzzo region (central Italy): Data collection and analysis through a language-independent classification system

A telephone survey was carried out on 13,486 randomly selected households located in the Abruzzo region (central Italy). Three questionnaires were specifically designed in relation to three different groups of foods (Meat and meat products, Fishery products, Fruit and vegetables). Questions were mainly focused on the amount and number of purchases, type of retailer, and home food handling practices with respect to the week prior to the interview. Data were classified according to a multilingual thesaurus system (LanguaL). Results allowed to estimate domestic purchases (in kg) per capita for different food categories. The category “Red meat/Cattle” accounted for a large part of purchases in the “meat and meat products” group (10.9 kg per capita/year; 32.2% of purchases in the group) while the category “Fish or related organism/Fish” was the most purchased in the “fishery products” group (6.9 kg per capita/year; 63.3%). The aggregation of more detailed characteristics enabled the identification of popular categories of foods, such as “Red meat/Cattle/Divided into pieces” (25% of the “meat and meat products” group). Significant differences (p < 0.05) were found between the four different provinces (L'Aquila, Chieti, Pescara and Teramo) with respect to “Poultry/Chicken” and “Red meat/Cattle” categories. Householders were also asked about post-purchase food handling practices that might be hazardous to food safety. More than 20% of those surveyed stated that they thawed frozen meat at room temperature. The degree of doneness after cooking of different food categories was generally high: over 90% of products purchased in the majority of meat and fish categories were properly cooked. However a noticeable proportion of householders (about 15%) reported medium or rare cooking of “Red meat/Cattle” and “Red meat/Swine”. Differences (p < 0.05) were also found between consumers of different ages, with people over 65 years old being more prone to freeze meat and cook it thoroughly.The survey was carried out in a specific geographic area and on a statistically significant sample of households, thus allowing a collection of data on domestic habits relating to food purchases and home food handling practices. This information should be included in the framework of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models as a measure of the actual exposure of consumers to pathogenic microorganism. The LanguaL system also proved to be a practical language-independent method useful not only to identify and describe food items but also to classify them according to specific food safety characteristics.