大坝洪水漫顶风险评估

洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。     

Lean philosophy: implementation in a forging company

This research addresses the implementation of lean philosophy in a forging company with a focus on radial forging production flow lines. Here, the prime motive is to evolve and test several strategies to eliminate waste on the shop floor. In this research, a systematic approach is suggested for the implementation of lean principles. This paper describes an application of value stream mapping (VSM). Consequently, the present and future states of value stream maps are constructed to improve the production process by identifying waste and its sources. Furthermore, Taguchi’s method of design of experiments is pursued here to minimize the forging defects produced due to imperfect operating conditions. A noticeable reduction in set-up time and work-in-process (WIP) inventory level is substantiated. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of managerial implications and the future scope of research.     

国有公路运输企业改革创效的现实选择

通过对公路运输企业经营实践的考察 ,介绍了国有公路运输企业改革创效的一些现实选择 ,以供运输公司经营借鉴 ,从而摆脱困境 ,取得良好业绩     

Modeling alternative zoning strategies in forest management

To satisfy public demands for environmental values, forest companies are facing the prospect of a reduction in wood supply and increases in costs. Some Canadian provincial governments have proposed intensifying silviculture in special zones dedicated to timber production as the means for pushing out the forest possibility frontiers. In this paper, we compare the traditional two‐zone land allocation framework which includes ecological reserves and integrated forest management zones with the triad — a three‐zone scheme which adds a zone dedicated to intensive timber production. We compare the solutions of the mixed‐integer linear programs formulated under both land‐allocation frameworks. We explore through sensitivity analysis the conditions under which the triad regime can offset the impact on timber production from increased environmental demands. We show that under the realistic conditions characteristic to Coastal British Columbia, higher environmental demands may be satisfied under the triad regime without increasing the financial burdens on the industry or reducing its wood supply. This occurs, however, only if regulatory constraints in timber production zone are flexible.     

含缺陷压力管系断裂失效风险分析系统（Ⅲ）——在检修和维护中的应用

针对石油工业管道上可能存在的各种缺陷类型 ,充分考虑缺陷尺寸、工况载荷、断裂韧度和机械强度等参数的不确定性 ,应用含缺陷压力管系断裂失效风险分析系统软件 (SAPP - 2 0 0 2 )计算管道系统中每个独立缺陷的安全概率 ,并对整个管道系统进行断裂失效风险分析。另外 ,在制定管道的检修计划时 ,可以利用该系统的结构应力分析模块方便地确定出管道应力高度集中部位 ,有针对性地选择焊缝并进行射线探伤 ,使管道的安全状况分析更准确。还可以利用该系统软件的分析结果制定出旨在降低失效风险的管道结构改进措施 ,达到缓解应力集中或使应力集中区与缺陷所在位置分离 ,优化管道结构 ,以较低成本提高管道完整性水平的目的。对提高企业压力管道管理水平具有推动作用     

A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments.     

Predicting Acute Renal Failure after Cardiac Surgery: Validation and Re‐definition of a Risk‐Stratification Algorithm

Background:  Acute renal failure (ARF) after cardiac surgery is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, irrespective of the need for dialysis. Previous studies have attempted to identify predictors of ARF and develop risk stratification algorithms. This study aims to validate the algorithm in an independent cohort of patients that includes a significant proportion of female and black patients and compares two different definitions of renal outcome.
Methods:  A large single center cardiac surgery database was examined (n, 24,660; 1993–2000) which included 29.9% females and 3.7% black patients. Post‐operative ARF was defined as: a) ARF requiring dialysis, b) > 50% reduction in creatinine clearance relative to baseline or requiring dialysis. Clinical variables related to baseline renal function and cardiovascular disease were used in recursive partitioning analysis for both outcome definitions. Chi‐square goodness of fit analysis was performed to validate the algorithm.
Results:  The frequency of post‐operative ARF requiring dialysis ranged between 0.5 and 15.5% based on the risk categories with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.78. Using the more inclusive definition of ARF, the frequency was significantly higher ranging from 2.6 to 25%(P < 0.001) with an area under ROC curve of 0.65.
Conclusions:  The renal risk stratification algorithm is valid in predicting post‐operative ARF in an independent cohort of patients, well represented by differences in gender and race. Since the need for dialysis remains subjective, a more objective and inclusive definition of ARF may help in identifying a larger number of patients 'at‐risk'.     

金沙江防洪(库容)规划的探讨

在分析长江灾害洪水特征的基础上，全面深入地研究了全沙江水库的防洪库客、防洪目标、防洪特点和调度原则，并对防洪库容的作用进行了估算和分析。从多方面比较了虎跳峡高坝方案与低坝方案，结果表明：高坝方案的效益明显高于低坝方案，而两者所需付出的代价相差不大。     

Time and cost securing in complex large-scale projects

Meeting time and cost objectives in complex projects involves specific problems and risks. An attempt is made to analyse the components of total cost increase of a project caused by time delay. An outline is given as to how these considerations can be used to estimate cost increases in investors' decision situations as well as to ascertain fair contractual penalties and claims for compensation and for the evaluation of justified project acceleration costs.     

工程项目投标报价中的风险分析

针对目前国内的招投标制度和方法,投标报价风险成为企业能否中标的最大风险,报价在招标中占的分数权重在40%~60%之间,对能否中标起到决定性的作用。从总承包商自身能力及有意识行为、总承包模式3个方面对工程项目中的投标报价风险进行了分析。