Investigation of the impact of changes in demand forecasting method on the financial performance of an electricity supply undertaking

Peak demand forecasts obtained from six different univariate forecasting methods, under a range of conditions, were used to drive a capacity acquisition model of a large electrical supply system; and the resulting physical and financial performance of the model was observed for each set of forecasts. The results obtained are discussed in the context of their implications for the choice of load forecasting method used in capacity acquisition planning by a power supply undertaking.     

电容传感器在使用中存在的几个问题及处理方法

随着电容测量技术的迅速发展，电容传感器在非电量测量和自动检测中得到广泛应用，但它在使用过程中也存在一些问题，针对在使用电容传感器过程中存在的几个问题，从电容传感器的原理和工作过程两个方面进行了讨论，并提出行之有效的处理方法。     

黄河下游河道萎缩致灾机理探讨

本文基于水力学原理，结合实体模型试验及原型实测资料分析，探讨了黄河下游河道萎缩的概念、致灾效应和致灾机理。分析表明，河道萎缩是造床过程中河道排洪输沙功能衰退的一种演变现象，其致灾效应是使洪水涨率增大，同流量下洪水水位不断抬升。致灾的现象主要表现在畸型河势增加、工程险情增多、直接造成工程损失及滩区经济损失等。试验研究揭示，主河槽宽度缩窄造成洪水水位涨幅增大，河底平均高程抬升和过水断面面积减小造成洪水水位起涨的基准面抬升是河道萎缩致灾的主要原因。河道萎缩致灾效应的大小与萎缩模式有关，其中以“集中淤槽”模式所形成的致灾效应尤为明显。     

Effect of flow on solutions of rod-coil block co-polymers

An elongational flow field is imposed on a solution of block copolymers consisting of semirigid macromolecules with rigid, rodlike sequences of units in combination with random coil (flexible) units. The problem is formulated according to the lattice treatment of Matheson and Flory. In this formulation, the system consists of rigid blocks whose lengths and locations are fixed by the structure within each macromolecule. These blocks are separated by random coiled units. An excess free energy other than the equilibrium Gibbs free energy of the quiescent solution has to be considered due to the flow field that tends to align the rods. This excess free energy is calculated from the potential energy of rods when a steady-state, homogeneous and irrotational flow field is applied to the solution. The effects of composition, polymer-solvent interaction, size of the co-polymer and flow rates are investigated. Depending on the size and number of rods, some of the chains studied exhibit a biphasic region at equilibrium that shifts to lower concentrations with increasing flow. Longer chains with shorter rods that are isotropic at equilibrium, exhibit a biphasic region at finite values of flow. The degree of orientation increases sharply when the system is biphasic. For larger flows, the orientation function is very close to unity which is perfect orientation.     

Separating n-alkane mixtures by exploiting differences in the adsorption capacity within cages of CHA, AFX and ERI zeolites

The saturation capacity of n-alkanes in CHA, AFX and ERI zeolites, that consist of cages separated by windows, decreases with increasing carbon number. The major aim of the present communication is to demonstrate the possibility of separating n-alkane mixtures relying on differences in saturation capacities. To investigate this possibility, Configurational-Bias Monte Carlo simulations for adsorption of C3–nC6, nC4–nC6, and nC5–nC6 mixtures in CHA, AFX and ERI were carried out for equimolar bulk fluid phase. These mixture simulations show that for operation at fluid phase fugacities below about 1 MPa, the adsorbed phase in equilibrium with the bulk vapor phase is predominantly the alkane with the longer chain length, i.e. nC6. However, for operation at pressures in excess of 1 MPa, the adsorbed phase in equilibrium with the bulk liquid phase is richer in the component with the smaller chain length. In some cases, the nC6 is practically excluded from the zeolite.     

Study of hot air generator with quasi-uniform temperature using concentrated solar radiation: Influence of the shape parameters

The non-uniformity of the air temperatures and the slow flow rate at the plane collector exit constitute the main cause of the limitations of the solar drying systems. In order to obtain an uniform and a variable flow rate for different uses, a hot air generator using concentrated solar radiation is proposed. To improve the thermal efficiency of the generator, a study of the influence of different shape parameters is realized. The generator is simulated in the laboratory while investigating the flow induced by a circular disc heated uniformly by Joule effect at constant temperature. This disc is placed at the entrance of an open ended vertical cylinder of a larger diameter. Thermal radiation emitted by the hot disc heats the cylinder wall. The heating of the fluid at the cylinder-inlet generates a thermosiphon flow around the one created by the hot disc. The comparison of the velocity and the temperature profiles of the resulting flow permits to determine the influence of the cylinder height, the vertical source-cylinder spacing and the radius ratio, on the resulting flow at the system exit. Thus, a judicious choice of the shape parameters entails an improvement of the flow rate as well as the thermal flux absorbed by the air and a good homogenization of the air temperature at the generator exit.     

A new adaptation of mapping method to study mixing of multiphase flows in mixers with complex geometries

The main objective of the present work is to modify the traditional mapping method for the simulation of distributive mixing of multiphase flows in geometries involving moving parts such as, internal mixers or twin-screw extruders without a limitation on their geometrical periodicity. The periodicity condition, limits the results of traditional mapping method to tracking mapping mesh between specific discrete time intervals or distances for that geometry is repeated, hence, result is only for fixed orientation of rotors. Imaginary domain method is introduced to track mapping mesh from one state to the next free of geometrical periodicity limitations. In this work the method is introduced and its applicability and accuracy is discussed in details. A two-dimensional (2D) simulation of mixing of two Newtonian fluids with different viscosities in an intermeshing internal mixer is used as a test case study. In this example the key issues of ability to predict mixing state in details for all orientations of rotors is presented. To reduce diffusion errors of mapping method in the boundaries of the rotors, mapping mesh refinement technique that relies upon one single reference mesh is also presented.     

Drag coefficient of flow around a sphere: Matching asymptotically the wide trend

An empirical relationship of drag coefficient of flow around a sphere is developed for the entire range of Particle Reynolds numbers reported in the literature from Stokes regime to the condition when turbulent boundary layer prevails. The relationship is obtained using an approach to match asymptotically the wide trend of drag coefficient. The matching approach, which relies on dividing the wide trend into smaller segments that can be combined into an overall relationship, employs regression techniques and thus warrants the best-fit accuracy results. The relationship is calibrated with experimental data available in the literature covering the entire range for Reynolds numbers up to ~ 10⁶. For Reynolds values greater than 10⁶, the relationship renders a drag coefficient of 0.2. The performance of the relationship is tested and compared with other suitable models found in the literature. This relationship is also transformed into an explicit expression for settling velocity calculations.     

Behaviors of concrete-filled steel tubular members subjected to combined loading

The present study is an investigation on the behaviors of concrete-filled thin-walled steel tubular members subjected to combined loading, such as compression and torsion, bending and torsion, compression, bending and torsion. ABAQUS software is used in this paper for the finite element analysis (FEA). A comparison of results calculated using this modeling shows generally good agreement with test results. The FEA modeling is then used to investigate the influence of important parameters that determine the ultimate strength of the composite members under combined loading, such as compression and torsion, bending and torsion, compression, bending and torsion. The parametric studies provide information for the development of formulae for calculating the ultimate strength of the composite members subjected to combined loading.