A motivational model of rural students' intentions to persist in, versus drop out of, high school.

Using self-determination theory, the authors tested a motivational model to explain the conditions under which rural students formulate their intentions to persist in, versus drop out of, high school. The model argues that motivational variables underlie students' intentions to drop out and that students' motivation can be either supported in the classroom by autonomy-supportive teachers or frustrated by controlling teachers. LISREL analyses of questionnaire data from 483 rural high school students showed that the provision of autonomy support within classrooms predicted students' self-determined motivation and perceived competence. These motivational resources, in turn, predicted students' intentions to persist, versus drop out, and they did so even after controlling for the effect of achievement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Big-Fish--Little-Pond effect on academic self-concept: A cross-cultural (26-country) test of the negative effects of academically selective schools.

Academically selective schools are intended to affect academic self-concept positively, but theoretical and empirical research demonstrates that the effects are negative. The big-fish--little-pond effect (BFLPE), an application of social comparison theory to educational settings, posits that a student will have a lower academic self-concept in an academically selective school than in a nonselective school. This study, the largest cross-cultural study of the BFLPE ever undertaken, tested theoretical predictions for nationally representative samples of approximately 4,000 15-year-olds from each of 26 countries (N=103,558) who completed the same self-concept instrument and achievement tests. Consistent with the BFLPE, the effects of school-average achievement were negative in all 26 countries (M beta=-.20, SD=.08), demonstrating the BFLPE's cross-cultural generalizability. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

特低渗透油藏驱替及开采特征的影响因素

应用非达西渗流理论和非线性弹性渗流理论，分析了影响特低渗透油藏驱替及开采特征的主要因素。研究结果表明，启动压力梯度和毛细管压力是影响特低渗透油藏驱替特征的主要因素；而影响特低渗透油藏开采特征的主要因素是储层的弹塑性，即储层的压力敏感性。在特低渗透油藏的开发中应适当缩小注采井距提高驱替压力梯度，采取整体压裂措施减小启动压力梯度，通过气驱或活性水驱油减小毛细管压力，及时补充地层能量以减少压力敏感性对储层的伤害。     

The negated conditional: A litmus test for the suppositional conditional?

Under the suppositional account of conditionals, when people think about a conditional assertion, "if p then q," they engage in a mental simulation in which they imagine p holds and evaluate the probability that q holds under this supposition. One implication of this account is that belief in a conditional equates to conditional probability [P(q/p)]. In this paper, the authors examine a further implication of this analysis with respect to the wide-scope negation of conditional assertions, "it is not the case that if p then q." Under the suppositional account, nothing categorically follows from the negation of a conditional, other than a second conditional, "if p then not-q." In contrast, according to the mental model theory, a negated conditional is consistent only with the determinate state of affairs, p and not-q. In 4 experiments, the authors compare the contrasting predictions that arise from each of these accounts. The findings are consistent with the suppositional theory but are incongruent with the mental model theory of conditionals. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

支持向量机在交通量预测中的应用

交通量预测对于区域交通规划有重要意义。提出一种基于支持向量机理论的交通量预测方法。该方法以统计学习理论为基础，通过和BP神经网络进行比较的实验，证明其在交通量预测中的有效性。     

A Detection-Theoretic Model of Echo Inhibition.

A detection-theoretic analysis of the auditory localization of dual-impulse stimuli is described, and a model for the processing of spatial cues in the echo pulse is developed. Although for over 50 years "echo suppression" has been the topic of intense theoretical and empirical study within the hearing sciences, only a rudimentary understanding of its mechanisms has emerged. In this article, psychometric functions and results from matching studies are used in developing a model that specifies the perceived position of the echo pulse as a normal deviate, with an expectation that is a logistic function of the echo delay and a variance that depends on interaural time difference. Loss of information in the echo event is quantified as a decline in the efficiency with which the binaural system receives information from the lag impulse. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Information-Based Evaluation Criterion for Classifier's Performance

In the past few years many systems for learning decision rules from examples were developed. As different systems allow different types of answers when classifying new instances, it is difficult to appropriately evaluate the systems' classification power in comparison with other classification systems or in comparison with human experts. Classification accuracy is usually used as a measure of classification performance. This measure is, however, known to have several defects. A fair evaluation criterion should exclude the influence of the class probabilities which may enable a completely uninformed classifier to trivially achieve high classification accuracy. In this paper a method for evaluating the information score of a classifier's answers is proposed. It excludes the influence of prior probabilities, deals with various types of imperfect or probabilistic answers and can be used also for comparing the performance in different domains.     

An intelligent decision theoretic approach to producibility optimization in conceptual design

Product optimization involves selecting design, manufacturing, and support attributes that can produce the best system. Producibility or manufacturability is the term often used to describe the relative ease of manufacturing a product. In complex systems, productibility optimization is a very difficult process, particularly when the values of many attributes are restricted by constraints. One challenge is to develop more universal producibility metrics for the conceptual design phase when design information is limited and drawings are nondimensional. This paper develops a new method for producibility optimization in conceptual design based on a combination of both decision theoretic and expert system techniques. Decision theoretic techniques provide the means to model the design for producibility problem in a manner that can deal with risk, uncertainty, and user (or corporate) preferences, and can effectively integrate diverse factors to provide a measure of the overall worth of a design. The particular decision theoretic approach employed is based on multi-attribute utility theory. An illustrative example of the methodology is applied to the conceptual design of a structural composite part.     

Consolidation of Long-Term Memory: Evidence and Alternatives.

Memory loss in retrograde amnesia has long been held to be larger for recent periods than for remote periods, a pattern usually referred to as the Ribot gradient. One explanation for this gradient is consolidation of long-term memories. Several computational models of such a process have shown how consolidation can explain characteristics of amnesia, but they have not elucidated how consolidation must be envisaged. Here findings are reviewed that shed light on how consolidation may be implemented in the brain. Moreover, consolidation is contrasted with alternative theories of the Ribot gradient. Consolidation theory, multiple trace theory, and semantization can all handle some findings well but not others. Conclusive evidence for or against consolidation thus remains to be found. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

基于排队理论的渠道容量设计

在设计一个新的灌溉配水系统时，渠道容量是一个不易确定的参数，因为农场用户提出供水的时间和水量通常是不确定的，取决于季节、气候、农作物种类等因素。渠道容量对灌溉投资和服务质量有重要的影响。提出运用排队理论确定渠道容量的大小。依据该理论，服务系统需提供的容量取决于将要达到的服务水平，以及顾客到达时间和服务时间的平均密度和分布规律。将灌溉渠道容量比作排队系统的服务能力。研究了指数分配和非指数分配模型及10个连续的灌溉周期。计算实例显示，同传统的Clement方程相比，该方法的结果相当可信。