Effect of sampling density on the measurement of stream condition indicators in two lowland Australian streams

There is widespread application of indicators to the assessment of environmental condition of streams. These indicators are intended for use by managers in making various comparative and absolute assessments and often have a role in resource allocation and performance assessment. Therefore, the problem of formally defining confidence in the results is important but difficult because the sampling strategies used are commonly based on a compromise between the requirements of statistical rigour and the pragmatic issues of access and resources. It is rare to see this compromise explicitly considered and consequently there is seldom quantification of the uncertainty that could affect the confidence a manager has in an indicator. In this paper, we present a method for quantitatively assessing the tradeoffs between sampling density and uncertainty in meeting various monitoring objectives. Assessments using judgement‐based representative reaches are shown to be unreliable; instead a sampling approach is recommended based on the random selection of measuring sites. A detailed dataset was collected along two streams in Victoria, Australia, and the effect of sampling density was assessed by subsampling from this dataset with precision related to the number of sites assessed per reach length and the intensity of the sampling at each site. The sampling scheme to achieve a given precision is shown to depend on the monitoring objective. In particular, three objectives were considered: (1) making a baseline assessment of current condition; (2) change detection; and (3) detection of a critical threshold in condition. Change detection is shown to be more demanding than assessing baseline condition with additional sampling effort required to achieve the same precision. Sampling to detect a critical threshold depends on nominating acceptable values of Type I and II error and the size of the effect to be detected. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

含缺陷压力管系断裂失效风险分析系统（Ⅲ）——在检修和维护中的应用

针对石油工业管道上可能存在的各种缺陷类型 ,充分考虑缺陷尺寸、工况载荷、断裂韧度和机械强度等参数的不确定性 ,应用含缺陷压力管系断裂失效风险分析系统软件 (SAPP - 2 0 0 2 )计算管道系统中每个独立缺陷的安全概率 ,并对整个管道系统进行断裂失效风险分析。另外 ,在制定管道的检修计划时 ,可以利用该系统的结构应力分析模块方便地确定出管道应力高度集中部位 ,有针对性地选择焊缝并进行射线探伤 ,使管道的安全状况分析更准确。还可以利用该系统软件的分析结果制定出旨在降低失效风险的管道结构改进措施 ,达到缓解应力集中或使应力集中区与缺陷所在位置分离 ,优化管道结构 ,以较低成本提高管道完整性水平的目的。对提高企业压力管道管理水平具有推动作用     

A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments.     

Predicting Acute Renal Failure after Cardiac Surgery: Validation and Re‐definition of a Risk‐Stratification Algorithm

Background:  Acute renal failure (ARF) after cardiac surgery is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, irrespective of the need for dialysis. Previous studies have attempted to identify predictors of ARF and develop risk stratification algorithms. This study aims to validate the algorithm in an independent cohort of patients that includes a significant proportion of female and black patients and compares two different definitions of renal outcome.
Methods:  A large single center cardiac surgery database was examined (n, 24,660; 1993–2000) which included 29.9% females and 3.7% black patients. Post‐operative ARF was defined as: a) ARF requiring dialysis, b) > 50% reduction in creatinine clearance relative to baseline or requiring dialysis. Clinical variables related to baseline renal function and cardiovascular disease were used in recursive partitioning analysis for both outcome definitions. Chi‐square goodness of fit analysis was performed to validate the algorithm.
Results:  The frequency of post‐operative ARF requiring dialysis ranged between 0.5 and 15.5% based on the risk categories with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.78. Using the more inclusive definition of ARF, the frequency was significantly higher ranging from 2.6 to 25%(P < 0.001) with an area under ROC curve of 0.65.
Conclusions:  The renal risk stratification algorithm is valid in predicting post‐operative ARF in an independent cohort of patients, well represented by differences in gender and race. Since the need for dialysis remains subjective, a more objective and inclusive definition of ARF may help in identifying a larger number of patients 'at‐risk'.     

Time and cost securing in complex large-scale projects

Meeting time and cost objectives in complex projects involves specific problems and risks. An attempt is made to analyse the components of total cost increase of a project caused by time delay. An outline is given as to how these considerations can be used to estimate cost increases in investors' decision situations as well as to ascertain fair contractual penalties and claims for compensation and for the evaluation of justified project acceleration costs.     

Depression in ethnically diverse women: Implications for treatment in primary care settings.

What do health care practitioners need to know about providing adequate care for depressed minority women? This article examined the prevalence of depressive symptoms and clinical depression in ethnic minorities, the extent to which current health service utilization is congruent with needs, and the effectiveness of treatments provided to ethnic minorities in the primary care setting. The impact of ethnic minority women's sociocultural context on symptom expression and help-seeking behavior is also discussed. Finally, the clinical implications for accurate assessment and treatment of ethnic minority women by both medical and mental health practitioners working in the primary care sector are addressed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The effects of widowhood on physical and mental health, health behaviors, and health outcomes: The Women's Health Initiative.

This study examined whether widowhood was associated with physical and mental health, health behaviors, and health outcomes using a cross-sectional (N=72,247) and prospective (N=55,724) design in women aged 50-79 years participating in the Women's Health Initiative observational study (85.4% White). At baseline, married women reported better physical and mental health and generally better health behaviors than widowed women. Whereas women who remained married over the 3-year period showed stability in mental health, recent widows experienced marked impairments and longer term widows showed stability or slight improvements. Both groups of widows reported more unintentional weight loss over the 3-year period. Changes in physical health and health behaviors were inconsistent, with generally small effect sizes. Findings underscore the resilience of older women and their capacity to reestablish connections, but point to the need for services that strengthen social support among women who have difficulty during this transition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

大学生心理健康教育的重点：建立和谐宿舍关系

文章从宿舍关系对大学生心理健康的重要性出发，分析了和谐宿舍人际关系对大学生心理健康成长的重要作用及功能。随后，对当代大学生宿舍人际关系的一些常见问题进行了分析，并提出了应对的策略。     

Youth gambling behaviors: An examination of the role of resilience.

The study of resilient children has overturned many deficit-focused models concerning the ontogenesis of children raised in adversity. This study explored the relationship between risk and protective factors, resilience, and youth gambling behavior. More specifically, this study examined the relative contribution of various risk and protective domains in relation to problem gambling behavior and examined whether youth identified as resilient (high risk exposure- high internalized protection) were as likely as those identified as vulnerable (high risk exposure-low internalized protection) to engage in excessive gambling behavior. The sample consisted of 1,273 students ages 12 to 19. The findings demonstrated that risk and protective factors each provide a unique contribution to the prediction model of gambling problems. Resilient and vulnerable youth differed significantly in their self-reported gambling severity. As well, resilient youth were not statistically distinguishable from low-risk exposure groups in terms of their gambling severity. Findings are interpreted with respect to resilience and prevention research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Treatment of depressive symptoms during short-term rehabilitation: An attempted replication of the DOUR project.

Objective: To replicate and extend P. A. Lichtenberg and colleagues' (1996) cross-disciplinary intervention to improve physical and mental health among older adults. Participants: 14 depressed older adults (6 treatment, 8 control). Setting: The short-term rehabilitation unit of an urban nursing home. Intervention: Occupational therapists were trained to treat depression using pleasant events and cognitive-behavioral therapies. Outcome Measures: Geriatric Depression Scale, the Short Form-12, and the Multi-Level Assessment Instrument: Activities of Daily Living. Results: No significant group differences were found in physical or mental health. However, more control group members (75%) than treatment group members (33%) were depressed at study completion. Conclusions: The treatment of depressive symptoms can be integrated with a nonmental health treatment modality. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)