乌溪江流域自动洪水预报系统研究与应用

由于预报模型的局限性和实时信息的不完善,洪水预报过程存在一定误差。利用自动预报模型和人工预报参数交互式修改相结合的方式可提高洪水预报精度。在乌溪江流域自动洪水预报系统研究中,采用径流系数控制前期雨量损失总量,通过调整雨量损失进行产流计算,根据时段降雨的降雨中心和降雨强度选用单位线进行汇流计算。同时在自动化洪水预报基础上配以预报人员的多年预报经验,完成可实时修正、高精度的实时洪水预报。以典型洪水预报为例,人工预报参数交互式修改方法的准确性较高,人工预报峰现时间相差1 h,人工预报洪峰流量误差为0.74%,预报精度等级为乙级。研究成果已在浙江省乌溪江流域自动洪水预报系统得到应用,对其他流域洪水预报具有参考价值。     

流域时变瞬时单位线非线性汇流模型及应用

为增强瞬时单位线的适用性,提高流域洪水预报精度,本文在纳什瞬时单位线的基础上,充分考虑流域净雨强度和空间分布不均匀的非线性影响因素,提出时变瞬时单位线(TVIUH)模型.同时建立了综合目标函数确定模型参数,模型简单实用.通过观音阁-葠窝梯级水库的实例检验,证明该模型能较好地处理流域汇流的非线性影响因素,提高汇流预报精度,为水库的防洪调度能提供更为可靠的依据.     

地貌净雨单位线理论及应用

本文以水分子在土壤中受重力、土壤和气体共同作用的角度,分析了水分在土壤中水平向的运动和受力特征,提出了以重力作用为主要特征的地貌单位线模型.该模型以简化地形参数为主要参数,具有基于降雨、地形地貌和土壤特性的分布式流域汇流水文模型特征.运用该模型计算了尼尔基水库净雨单位线,比较了尼尔基水库运用历史洪水率定的单位线,给出了...     

Evaluation of the Adequacy of Statistical Distribution Functions for Deriving Unit Hydrograph

The unit hydrograph (UH) is one of the commonly employed techniques for the determination of flood hydrographs. Since the UH satisfies all the properties of a probability distribution function (PDF), it seems logical that PDFs can be employed for deriving the UH. In practice, the gamma distribution function has been commonly employed to derive the UH. In this paper, Beta (Beta), Exponential (EXP), Gamma (GM), Normal, Lognormal (LN), Weibull (WB), Logistic (LG), Generalized logistic (GLG) and Pearson Type 3 (PT 3) distribution functions were employed for the derivation of UH. Parameters of these distribution functions were estimated using the real coded genetic algorithm optimization technique. These distributions were tested on the 13 watersheds of different characteristics and it was observed that except for the EXP distribution function, most other distribution functions produced UHs which were in satisfactory agreement with observed UHs. However, three-parameter distributions GLG, PT 3 and two parameter LG were not capable of reproducing UHs for large watersheds having drainage areas of 3,360 and 4,300 km². For such large watersheds WB reproduced UHs satisfactorily. Combining the overall performance of the distributions over 13 watersheds, the order of ranking the suitability of distributions were as: GM > PT 3 > Beta ≥ GLG ≥ LN > WB.     

Evaluation of three unit hydrograph models to predict the surface runoff from a Canadian watershed

The predictability of unit hydrograph (UH) models that are based on the concepts of land morphology and isochrones to generate direct runoff hydrograph (DRH) were evaluated in this paper. The intention of this study was to evaluate the models for accurate runoff prediction from ungauged watershed using the ArcGIS^® tool. Three models such as exponential distributed geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (ED-GIUH) model, GIUH based Clark model, and spatially distributed unit hydrograph (SDUH) model, were used to generate the DRHs for the St. Esprit watershed, Quebec, Canada. Predictability of these models was evaluated by comparing the generated DRHs versus the observed DRH at the watershed outlet. The model input data, including natural drainage network and Horton's morphological parameters (e.g. isochrone and instantaneous unit hydrograph), were prepared using a watershed morphological estimation tool (WMET) on ArcGIS^® platform. The isochrone feature class was generated in ArcGIS^® using the time of concentration concepts for overland and channel flow and the instantaneous unit hydrograph was generated using the Clark's reservoir routing and S-hydrograph methods. An accounting procedure was used to estimate UH and DRHs from rainfall events of the watershed. The variable slope method and phi-index method were used for base flow separation and rainfall excess estimation, respectively. It was revealed that the ED-GIUH models performed better for prediction of DRHs for short duration (≤6 h) storm events more accurately (prediction error as low as 4.6–22.8%) for the study watershed, than the GIUH and SDUH models. Thus, facilitated by using ArcGIS^®, the ED-GIUH model could be used as a potential tool to predict DRHs for ungauged watersheds that have similar geomorphology as that of the St. Esprit watershed.     

现行主要水文计算方法适用性初探

本文以狮子滩水库为例论述了现行主要水文计算方法（设计洪水过程线法和长序列法）的适用性。实测资料和计算数据对比．分析结果表明：设计洪水过程线法的适用性需进一步探讨，在实际应用中应全面分析。长序列法的适用性较好，可以广泛应用。     

流域汇流的分布参数模型

本文研究提出流域汇流的分布参数模型,并用它来拟合实际的经验单位线,使其具有与经验单位线法大体相同的使用效果,计算精度相当。在分布参数模型中,釆用汇流参数K和分布参数η,把流域汇流模拟为两级非均匀串联线性水库模型,提出分布参数的概念,以分布参数η取代纳希模型的串联水库的级数n,推导求出其脉冲响应函数和一系列的计算公式。在四川涪江麦地湾站和青衣江罗坝站的经验单位线模拟中,初步应用了分布参数模型,得到了良好的拟合效果。     

论降雨径流过程的非线性水文系统分析方法的应用

本文闸述国外现行降雨径流过程非线性水文系统分析中有关核心理论问题的应用:诸如假定,系统的函数与核函数问题等。同时对若干实际应用问题,诸如系统的存储长度,核函数的剪断阶次和回归系数群等问题也作探讨,使现行降雨径流过程的非线性水文系统分析方法更能符合实际,同时又便于应用。     

入库区间地貌单位线模型的研究

本文提出了入库区间地貌单位线模型,把地貌单位线理论成功地应用于水库区间洪水预报方面。Rodriguez—Iturbe和Gupta等人假定等待时间的概率密度函数(pdf)服从指数分布,本文在此假定基础上推出了入库区间k条并联支流等待时间之和的pdf服从爱尔朗分布。已经证明服从指数分布的地税单位线是服从爱尔朗分布的地貌单位线的特例。指数分布的地税单位线只能用于单条河流的汇流计算;本文提出的入库区间地税单位线,不仅能用于一条河流而且也能用于水库区间具有k条并联支流入库的区间汇流计算,为无资材的入库区间洪水预报提供了一条较好的途径。本文选择了贵州省红枫水库的水库区间检验本模型,获得了令人满意的结果。     

Determination of optimal unit hydrographs by linear programming

A unit hydrograph (UH) obtained from past storms can be used to predict a direct runoff hydrograph (DRH) based on the effective rainfall hyetograph (ERH) of a new storm. The objective functions in commonly used linear programming (LP) formulations for obtaining an optimal UH are (1) minimizing the sum of absolute deviations (MSAD) and (2) minimizing the largest absolute deviation (MLAD). This paper proposes two alternative LP formulations for obtaining an optimal UH, namely, (1) minimizing the weighted sum of absolute deviations (MWSAD) and (2) minimizing the range of deviations (MRNG). In this paper the predicted DRHs as well as the regenerated DRHs by using the UHs obtained from different LP formulations were compared using a statistical cross-validation technique. The golden section search method was used to determine the optimal weights for the model of MWSAD. The numerical results show that the UH by MRNG is better than that by MLAD in regenerating and predicting DRHs. It is also found that the model MWSAD with a properly selected weighing function would produce a UH that is better in predicting the DRHs than the commonly used MSAD.Notations M number of effective rainfall increments - N number of direct runoff hydrograph ordinates - R number of storms - MSAD minimize sum of absolute deviation - MWSAD minimize weighted sum of absolute deviation - MLAD minimize the largest absolute deviation - MRNG minimize the range of deviation - RMSE root mean square error - P _m effective rainfall in time interval [(m–1)t,mt] - Q _n direct runoff at discrete timent - U _k unit hydrograph ordinate at discrete timekt - W _n weight assigned to error associated with estimatingQ _n - _n ⁺ error associated with over-estimation ofQ _n - _n ^– error associated with under-estimation ofQ _n - _max ⁺ maximum positive error in fitting direct runoff hydrograph - _max ^– maximum negative error in fitting direct runoff hydrograph - _max largest absolute error in fitting obtained direct runoff - E _r,1 thelth error criterion measuring the fit between the observed DRHs and the predicted (or reproduced) DRHs for therth storm - E ₁ averaged value of error criterion overR storms