Current variability in a wide and open lacustrine embayment in Lake Geneva (Switzerland)

Field measurements and numerical simulations were used to determine the effects of dominant meteorological conditions on the hydrodynamics of a wide (aspect ratio ~ 2), relatively deep (seasonally stratified) and open lake embayment (Vidy Bay, Lake Geneva). A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (Delft3D-FLOW) was employed to simulate flow in the lake. High-resolution maps of wind, temperature and humidity (over the lake) were applied as input to drive the model. Because wind was the main force driving flow in the lake, currents in the embayment were investigated systematically for different wind conditions and seasonal stratification. Satisfactory model validation was achieved using drifter and moored measurements within the embayment. Markedly different circulation patterns were measured within the embayment, with the transition from one pattern to another occurring abruptly for small changes in wind direction. These distinct patterns resulted from relatively small changes in the large gyre of Lake Geneva's main basin, especially the angle between the current in front of the embayment and the embayment shoreline. The boundary between the embayment and the pelagic zone was defined by the largest gyre within the embayment. This study shows that, (i) in a large lake, complex current patterns can occur even within a minor embayment, and (ii) that these patterns can transition rapidly over a small range of wind directions. Near-shore gyre can occur for lengthy periods, which has implications for flushing of discharges within the embayment.     

高纬度地区渠道无冰盖输水的冰情控制研究

中国北方高纬度地区有一些渠道工程,因其建设年代早,受规划之初经济条件限制,未考虑冰期运行,仅在非冰期输水。随着经济发展,目前亟需实现冬季输水。但是受结构上的限制,这些渠道抗冰冻能力差,无法采取冰盖下输水或冰水二相流输水,通过加设保温盖板,防止渠道结冰,既可解决用水矛盾,又可节省工程改造投资,具有巨大的经济效益和社会效益。本研究根据传热学理论对加设保温盖板后的渠道水体失温过程进行理论分析,并在此基础上建立了设置保温盖板的一维渠道冰期输水数学模型,对加设保温盖板的冰期输水过程进行了模拟,分析了保温材料厚度、输水流量、出库水温等对冰期输水的影响,论证渠道冬季加设保温盖板输水的可行性。并提出了切实可行的冬季输水方案。研究成果对于冰期渠道安全输水和渠道改造都有一定的借鉴意义。     

长江中游陆溪口水道河床演变机理研究

陆溪口河段是长江典型鹅头型汊道,滩槽演变复杂,是长江中游重点浅滩碍航河段。本文深入分析了河段的上下游河势关系以及影响因子之间的耦合作用,认为可以将河道平面内的主流带位置作为影响河床演变的综合动力因子,并利用特征流量的概念对主流带位置进行了定量描述。在利用特征流量揭示河床演变机理的同时,得到了"来流过程与特征流量的相对关系决定河床演变的冲淤性质,特征流量级持续作用时间长短与沙量的大小共同决定河床演变的幅度"的重要结论,得到了"三峡水库蓄水改变下游水沙过程,使河段航道发展条件优于蓄水前"的结论,并给出了具体依据。     

人民币汇率措施不构成WTO框架下的出口补贴

将汇率低估视为出口补贴进而采取反补贴措施并对来自于汇率低估国家的产品征收惩罚性关税,是美国参众两院在国内利益集团的推动下出台的多项议案的核心内容之一。事实上,WTO框架下的出口补贴是经过严格界定的,人民币汇率措施既不构成财政资助又不与出口实绩相联系,不完全具备出口补贴的构成要件,中国的货币政策有利于出口商这一事实并不表明中国政府给予出口商以SCM协定中界定的财政资助。     

A numerical method for annuity-purchasing decision making to minimize the probability of financial ruin for regime-switching wealth models

This work develops an approximation procedure to find optimal annuity-purchasing strategies for minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin. The wealth is modelled as a regime-switching diffusion modulated by a continuous-time Markov chain. Based on Markov chain approximation techniques, a discrete-time controlled Markov chain with two components is constructed. Under simple conditions, the convergence of the approximation sequence to the wealth process is obtained. The convergence of the approximation to the value function is also established. Several examples are provided to demonstrate the performance of the algorithms.     

基于遗传算法的SVM冰凌预报模型研究

针对传统支持向量回归参数大多采用经验率定的情况,提出了一种基于遗传算法优化支持向量回归参数的冰凌预报模型.运用MATLAB软件进行建模,并将其应用于黄河宁蒙段三湖河口封、开河日期的预报.结果表明,经过优化的支持向量回归模型泛化能力强,预报效果优于传统支持向量回归模型.     

Nutrients and water level fluctuations: A study of three aquatic plants

Water holes characteristic of the middle sections of fragmented, lowland, semi‐arid rivers act as refuge areas for biota during low flow and drought. However, river regulation and catchment development has altered the hydrological and nutrient status of these refuges. A series of artificial ponds were used to imitate these habitats and experiments were designed to determine whether stochastically fluctuating water levels with maximum amplitude of 65 cm would counteract the influence of nutrient enrichment on the growth of three key aquatic plant species. The species (Cyperus gymnocaulos, Triglochin procerum and Typha domingensis) represented different functional groups that inhabit contrasting zones across the elevation gradient. Each species was grown at a different elevation within the experiment reflecting each species' elevation preference and supplied with the equivalent to 0, 10 or 30 g N m^?2 year^?1. Under a static water regime nutrient enrichment doubled the total biomass of all three species. In contrast under a fluctuating water regime, nutrient addition did not influence total biomass of either T. domingensis or T. procerum and the performance of C. gymnocaulos was reduced by ca. 30%. These data suggest that if environmental flows were managed to provide a natural stochastically fluctuating water regime, this would nullify the influence of nutrient enrichment and limit the distribution and spread of invasive species such as Typha, that exists under the current altered conditions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄河内蒙古河段冰凌时空分布特性分析

基于黄河内蒙古段系列历史冰情资料,利用小波分析方法对冰期气温、冰期径流、流凌日期、封河日期、开河日期进行了多时间尺度分析。结果表明:巴彦高勒、三湖河口、头道拐三站的冰期气温总体呈上升的变化规律,并且三站的冰期气温变化趋势一致,黄河内蒙古段冰期气温存在15 a左右的周期;实测径流在分析序列中不存在显著周期;三站流凌日期和封河日期整体上推迟,开河日期提前,封冻时间缩短;流凌日期存在12 a左右的周期,封河日期和开河日期不存在显著强周期。     

桃汛期影响潼关高程升降的敏感性因子分析

从水沙条件和边界条件两个方面,逐项分析了桃汛期洪峰、沙量、水沙搭配以及桃汛期三门峡水库起调水位、前期潼关高程、河床泥沙颗粒组成、纵比降等对潼关高程升降产生的影响。结果表明:在目前边界条件下,要降低潼关高程,三门峡水库桃汛期起调水位应控制在313 m以下,桃汛洪峰流量在不超过小北干流平滩流量的情况情况下越大越好,沙量越小越有利于潼关高程的冲刷下降,含沙量不能太大且要与洪峰对应,在出库含沙量不能与洪峰同步的情况下,要控制好落水期排沙。