基于多尺度自回归模型体系的混凝土坝位移预报及工程应用

针对混凝土坝位移监测数据的时频非线性特征严重影响到数值模型预报精度的难题,通过小波技术解析原型数据中多重交叉环境驱动的效应实况,有机结合非线性自回归模型(Nonlinear Autoregressive Model with Exogenous Input, NARX)和差分整合移动平均自回归模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, ARIMA),建立了多尺度组合机制下的自回归模型体系,解决了内蕴复杂混沌特性的监测序列的信息挖掘难点。工程实例分析表明,所建模型的拟合精度及预测能力均得以提升,相比于传统模型具有较好的抗噪性和鲁棒性。此外,所建立的计算模型经一定的优化和拓展,亦可推广应用于其它水工建筑物的效应预报分析。     

Stock Price Forecasting: An Echo State Network Approach

Forecasting stock prices using deep learning models suffers from problems such as low accuracy, slow convergence, and complex network structures. This study developed an echo state network (ESN) model to mitigate such problems. We compared our ESN with a long short-term memory (LSTM) network by forecasting the stock data of Kweichow Moutai, a leading enterprise in China’s liquor industry. By analyzing data for 120, 240, and 300 days, we generated forecast data for the next 40, 80, and 100 days, respectively, using both ESN and LSTM. In terms of accuracy, ESN had the unique advantage of capturing nonlinear data. Mean absolute error (MAE) was used to present the accuracy results. The MAEs of the data forecast by ESN were 0.024, 0.024, and 0.025, which were, respectively, 0.065, 0.007, and 0.009 less than those of LSTM. In terms of convergence, ESN has a reservoir state-space structure, which makes it perform faster than other models. Root-mean-square error (RMSE) was used to present the convergence time. In our experiment, the RMSEs of ESN were 0.22, 0.27, and 0.26, which were, respectively, 0.08, 0.01, and 0.12 less than those of LSTM. In terms of network structure, ESN consists only of input, reservoir, and output spaces, making it a much simpler model than the others. The proposed ESN was found to be an effective model that, compared to others, converges faster, forecasts more accurately, and builds time-series analyses more easily.     

Thermal conductivity of a dendritic ice layer

Measurements of the thermal conductivities of the frozen layer of aqueous binary solutions have been performed using the transient hot-wire method. Solutions of ethylene glycol and sodium chloride were utilized as the testing fluids, and they were frozen up in the test section in which the platinum wires 40 m in diameter and 170 mm in length were strung. Measurements were carried out under equilibrium at a variety of both the initial concentration of the solution and the temperature of the frozen layer. The expressions of the thermal conductivity of the frozen layer were determined. It was found that the thermal conductivity of the dendritic ice layer was favorably assessed with the Lichteneker's model by introducing the solid fraction under an assumption of the equililbrium within the range of parameters examined.Paper presented at the Tenth Symposium on Thermophysical Properties, June 20–23, 1988, Gaithersburg, Maryland, U.S.A.     

基于多模型变权重组合的软件可靠性仿真研究

研究提高软件可靠性预测精度问题,对软件可靠性研究已成为当前软件工程的一个研究热点,传统的单一软件可靠性模型由于使用的技术及提取的信息有限,软件可靠性预测精度不高。为提高软件可靠性预测精度,在建立多种单一软件可靠性预测模型的基础上,提出一种样本点的多模型变权重组合模型。将多种预测技术有效地聚合在一起,取长补短,在样本数据有限的情况下,不仅改善了样本内学习能力也增强了样本外的泛化能力,提高了综合预测精度。仿真验证模型无论在样本内还是样本外都较优于经过模拟退火算法优化的BP神经网络(SA-BP)及经过遗传算法优化的最小二乘支持向量机(GA-LSVM),说明变权重组合模型是一种精度更高的软件可靠性失效数据预测模型,具有较好的应用推广价值。     

人工神经网络技术在电工产品可靠性实验中的应用(理论部分)

本文简要介绍了人工神经网络，BP神经网络的结构、训练和学习规则以及人工神经网络非线性时间序列预测的应用概况。     

西江流域压咸风险调度及其时空传递规律研究

枯水期珠江河口咸潮情势日益加重,径流不确定加剧了压咸风险,严重威胁沿线的供水安全。本文基于概率密度分布描述径流不确定性,构建了单源风险调度基本框架。以西江流域五座水库为研究对象,量化了预报误差与压咸风险的响应关系;揭示了压咸风险的时空传递规律;将压咸风险划分为3个等级;确定出各级风险越级传递的临界阈值。研究表明：随预报误差的增大,压咸风险提前且持续天数增加、风险率增大;压咸风险呈逐时段累积和从上游向下游、从支流向干流的时空传递规律;当预报误差超过±16%、±21%时,压咸风险从轻险越级至中险、中险越级至重险。研究成果对于西江流域压咸风险的调控和粤港澳大湾区的供水安全具有重要的应用价值。     

冰花镀锡在金属制品上的应用

在金属制品上获得美丽的结晶冰花,美化生活用品,已越来越为人们所重视。本文对冰花镀锡的电镀液组成,工艺参数的控制,生产过程中的故障排除作出了全面的介绍.     

热处理制度对含Ag的7055铝合金断裂特征的影响

研究了含Ag7055铝合金在T6，T73，RRA3种热处理状态下的力学性能、断裂特征及显微组织变化特征。实验结果表明，RRA处理可以在保持T6状态强度的同时，获得较高的电导率，然而试样的延伸率相对较低；断口SEM形貌观察表明，T6状态断裂机制为剪切型穿晶断裂和沿晶断裂同时并存，而T73处理后，主要呈韧窝型穿晶断裂，沿晶断裂部分减少，RRA试样断口则主要为沿晶断裂，并在晶界面上分布有韧窝型断裂特征；由于不同热处理状态下，强化相不同且其阻碍位错滑移能力也不同，同时晶界PFZ宽度也发生变化，这些因素的综合作用导致不同热处理状态下的断裂特征不同。     

对我国乙烯工业发展的几点思考

阐述了世界乙烯工业现状、发展特点以及新型工艺技术分析，重点对我国乙烯工业总体发展水平、生产、消费、进出口贸易作了详细的讨论。在此基础上对我国乙烯工业发展方向、方式和规划提出了建议。