海底管道系统失效故障树的建立及定性分析

受自然环境、管道腐蚀、第三方破坏及管理不善等因素的影响,海底管道系统在铺设及运行过程中常常会失效。文中以海底管道穿孔、凝管、断裂和设备故障等主要失效形式为顶事件建立了海底管道系统失效故障树,通过系统的定性分析得到了海底管道系统失效故障树的37个一阶最小割集,进而确定了影响海底管道系统失效的4项主要因素,并针对这些主要因素提出了相应的解决问题的措施。     

大坝洪水漫顶风险评估

洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。     

18臂机械井径与磁法井径组合测井仪原理及应用

文章主要介绍了18臂机械井径与磁法井径组合测井仪的仪器结构、主要技术特性、测量原理及测井资料在油田中的应用。通过对测井资料的分析，阐述了该仪器在套损检测、补贴效果检查、射孔工程作业效果评价等方面的应用，为油田套管分析提供了可靠的保证。     

Predicting Acute Renal Failure after Cardiac Surgery: Validation and Re‐definition of a Risk‐Stratification Algorithm

Background:  Acute renal failure (ARF) after cardiac surgery is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, irrespective of the need for dialysis. Previous studies have attempted to identify predictors of ARF and develop risk stratification algorithms. This study aims to validate the algorithm in an independent cohort of patients that includes a significant proportion of female and black patients and compares two different definitions of renal outcome.
Methods:  A large single center cardiac surgery database was examined (n, 24,660; 1993–2000) which included 29.9% females and 3.7% black patients. Post‐operative ARF was defined as: a) ARF requiring dialysis, b) > 50% reduction in creatinine clearance relative to baseline or requiring dialysis. Clinical variables related to baseline renal function and cardiovascular disease were used in recursive partitioning analysis for both outcome definitions. Chi‐square goodness of fit analysis was performed to validate the algorithm.
Results:  The frequency of post‐operative ARF requiring dialysis ranged between 0.5 and 15.5% based on the risk categories with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.78. Using the more inclusive definition of ARF, the frequency was significantly higher ranging from 2.6 to 25%(P < 0.001) with an area under ROC curve of 0.65.
Conclusions:  The renal risk stratification algorithm is valid in predicting post‐operative ARF in an independent cohort of patients, well represented by differences in gender and race. Since the need for dialysis remains subjective, a more objective and inclusive definition of ARF may help in identifying a larger number of patients 'at‐risk'.     

Finite-element analysis and experimental study on tensile fatigue behaviour of bitumen–stone adhesion

Tensile fatigue behaviours of bitumen–stone adhesion were investigated using a dynamic mechanics analyser under stress‐controlled mode at two temperatures of 5 and 25°C and various controlled‐stress levels. Failure characteristics including interfacial failure and cohesive failure were examined using image analysis of fracture surfaces. Finite‐element analysis on stress distributions was conducted under different temperatures, film thickness and interfacial bonding conditions. A Coulomb–Mohr like criterion in combination with shear and normal stresses is proposed to deal with the extreme thin adhesive layer, which can be further simplified into an adhesive zone without significant loss of accuracy for stress analysis.     

Prevention and Mitigation Strategies to Address Recent Brittle Fractures in Steel Bridges

Brittle fracture results in unplanned loss of service, very costly repairs, concern regarding the future safety of the structure, and potential loss of life. These types of failures are most critical when there is no evidence of fatigue cracking leading up to the fracture and the fracture origin is concealed from view. Hence, the failure occurs without warning and the details are, essentially, noninspectable. In these cases, it appears desirable to take a proactive approach and introduce preventative retrofits to reduce the potential for future crack development. These efforts will help ensure that the likelihood of unexpected fractures is minimized. This paper examines the behavior of two bridge structures in which brittle fractures have developed in recent times, discusses the causes of the failures, and offers suggested design strategies for prevention and retrofit mitigation techniques. In situations where considerable uncertainty exists in the prediction of accumulated damage or in the ability to reliably inspect critical details, preemptive retrofit strategies appear to be highly desirable.     

History of depression and smoking cessation outcome: A meta-analysis.

The authors conducted a meta-analysis of published studies to (a) evaluate the premise that a history of major depression is associated with failure to quit smoking and (b) identify factors that moderate the relationship between history of depression and cessation outcome. Fifteen studies met the selection requirements and were coded for various study methodology and treatment characteristics. DSTAT was used to calculate individual study effect sizes, determine the mean effect size across studies. and test for moderator effects. No differences in either short-term (≤ 3 months) or long-term abstinence rates (≥ 6 months) were observed between smokers positive versus negative for history of depression. Lifetime history of major depression does not appear to be an independent risk factor for cessation failure in smoking cessation treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Express Method for Estimation of Tensile Strength and Crack Resistance of Brittle Media

The procedure is proposed for estimating the crack resistance and tensile strength of rocks by the results of experiments on disk samples with holes. The gradient approach to the strength problem is employed in processing the experimental data.     

单模光纤最小群速度色散波长附近的调制不稳定性

利用修正的非线性Ｓｃｈｒｏｄｉｎｇｅｒ方程研究了单模光纤最小群速度色散波长附近的调制不稳定性，发现了一个新的由光纤四色散导致的调制不稳定性区域，该区域的调制范围与初始入射脉冲的功率和四阶色散有关。     

碳纤维缠绕复合材料在潜水外压容器上的应用

在铝合金圆筒体外以浸渍树脂碳纤维进行缠绕复合增强，增强后的筒体耐静水外压能力大幅度提高；整体缠绕的全复合材料筒体，在耐静水外压能力及减轻自身重量方面也获得了明显的效果。此外，在铝合金细长圆管的外壁复合缠绕碳纤维，能有效地提高圆管对轴向压载荷的抗失稳与抗屈曲破坏能力。