Use of climate scenarios to aid in decision analysis for interannual water supply planning

This work addresses the issue of climate change in the context of water resource planning on the time scale of a few years. Planning on this time scale generally ignores the role of climate change. However, where the climate of a region has already shifted, the use of historical data for planning purposes may be misleading. In order to test this, a case study is conducted for a region, the Australian Capital Territory, where long term drought is raising concerns of a possible climate shift. The issue is cast in terms of a particular planning decision; the option to augment water supply in the next few years to hedge against the drought persisting. A set of climate scenarios are constructed for the region corresponding to the historical climate regime and to regimes where progressively greater levels of change are assumed to have already taken place (5%, 10%, 20% reductions in mean rainfall). Probabilities of the drought persisting are calculated for each of the scenarios. The results show substantial increases in the probability of the drought persisting for even moderate reductions in mean rainfall. The sensitivity of the decision to augment supply to the scenario results depends ultimately on the planners tolerable thresholds for the probability of the drought persisting. The use of different scenarios enables planners to explore the sensitivity of the decision in terms of their risk tolerance to ongoing drought and to their degree of belief in each of the scenarios tested.     

海上石油平台陆地建造过程安全管理数据库系统开发

针对海上石油平台陆地建造过程的复杂性,开发了规范、完善的安全管理数据库系统。该系统为建造企业提供了新的管理手段和理念,极大的提高了劳动效率,有利于减少事故的发生。     

调节对象参数和运动特性随工况变化的分析

水轮机调节对象的许多参数都是随运行工况变化的。以调节对象线性化模型为基础，从1个实例计算人手，计算了不同工况下水轮机传递系数和发电机6个参数的变化情况，进而计算这些参数变化对捌节对象特征根的影响。通过汁算表明，其水力振荡衰减速度与出力有关．而系统的其他运动特性随工况变化较小。     

Sales and Use Taxation in E-Commerce: Where We Are and What Needs to be Done

As sales through the Internet have increased, states have sought to force remote sellers to collect and remit sales/use taxes. In response to the U.S. Supreme Court's Constitutional obstacles, the Streamlined Sales Tax Project (SSTP) was organized in 2000. SSTP is a voluntary effort by a number of states to address the Constitutional problems and reduce the burden of sales tax administration for all sellers in all types of commerce. This article examines the current state of the law and the major problems surrounding the SSTP.     

Energetics of Plastic Deformation of Metastable Austenitic Stainless Steel

The change in the internal energy during uniaxial tensile deformation of austenitic stainless steels EN 1.4301 (AISI 304) and EN 1.4318 (AISI 301LN) was determined by measuring the extent of γ→α'‐martensite transformation and the temperature increase of the samples. From the results the fraction of the stored energy of cold work and the free energy change related to the strain‐induced γ→α'‐martensite transformation were determined. The fraction of stored energy varied around 0.4. With the metastable steel grades the free energy change related to the γ→α'‐martensite transformation was found to vary between ‐98 MJ/m³ and ‐206 MJ/m³ depending on the austenite stability of the steel. Furthermore, the magnitude of the mechanical driving force was estimated by comparing the results with the free energy change of thermally induced transformation.     

Phase-change thermal energy storage using spherical capsules: performance of a test plant

The aim of this paper is the study of an industrial process of energy storage usable for air conditioning or refrigeration, investigating a test plant which is a tank with a reduced size, filled with randomly dispersed commercial nodules, placed in a refrigeration loop. The nodules are spherical capsules in which phase change materials (PCM) are encapsulated. This test plant permits the study at length of the behaviour of the tank with, in particular, the charge mode taking into account the undercooling and the discharge mode. A simulation program that considers aspects of both the surrounding heat transfer fluid and the phase-change material packed inside the nodules is developed here in the cases of the charge and the discharge processes. The simulation results are then compared with experimental observations.     

A theory of personalisation of appearance: quantitative evaluation of qualitatively derived data

Using qualitative data, Blom and Monk (2003) derived a theory of why people choose to personalise the appearance of their PCs and mobile phones. This paper describes some quantitative data that provide some support for, and some modifications to, the theory. Individuals having personal home pages were recruited to fill in a questionnaire that assesses dispositions to personalise and its effects. In addition the 82 home pages were inspected to assess the extent of personalisation. This correlated significantly with the dispositions 'Frequency of Use' and 'Knowledge of Personalisation'. The questionnaire items corresponding to effects were factor analysed. A four-factor solution suggested item groupings similar, but not identical, to those used in the theory. There are significant positive correlations between the extent of personalisation and cognitive effects and enduring emotional effects. The value of quantitative data for confirming and refining a qualitative theory is discussed.     

Using airborne laser scanning to monitor tree migration in the boreal-alpine transition zone

The boreal tree line is expected to advance upwards into the mountains and northwards into the tundra due to global warming. The major objective of this study was to find out if it is possible to use high-resolution airborne laser scanner data to detect very small trees — the pioneers that are pushing the tree line up into the mountains and out onto the tundra. The study was conducted in a sub-alpine/alpine environment in southeast Norway. A total of 342 small trees of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and downy birch with tree heights ranging from 0.11 to 5.20 m were precisely georeferenced and measured in field. Laser data were collected with a pulse density of 7.7 m^− 2. Three different terrain models were used to process the airborne laser point cloud in order to assess the effects of different pre-processing parameters on small tree detection. Greater than 91% of all trees > 1 m tall registered positive laser height values regardless of terrain model. For smaller trees (< 1 m), positive height values were found in 5-73% of the cases, depending on the terrain model considered. For this group of trees, the highest rate of trees with positive height values was found for spruce. The more smoothed the terrain model was, the larger the portion of the trees that had positive laser height values. The accuracy of tree height derived from the laser data indicated a systematic underestimation of true tree height by 0.40 to 1.01 m. The standard deviation for the differences between laser-derived and field-measured tree heights was 0.11-0.73 m. Commission errors, i.e., the detection of terrain objects — rocks, hummocks — as trees, increased significantly as terrain smoothing increased. Thus, if no classification of objects into classes like small trees and terrain objects is possible, many non-tree objects with a positive height value cannot be separated from those actually being trees. In a monitoring context, i.e., repeated measurements over time, we argue that most other objects like terrain structures, rocks, and hummocks will remain stable over time while the trees will change as they grow and new trees are established. Thus, this study indicates that, given a high laser pulse density and a certain density of newly established trees, it would be possible to detect a sufficient portion of newly established trees over a 10 years period to claim that tree migration is taking place.     

印制板蚀刻、微蚀刻废液的再生和铜回收的技术及设备

传统的印制板蚀刻废液处理方法存在着工艺落后、操作不便、二次污染、效益不高等问题,本工艺采用特殊的萃取电解、吸附电解技术,使蚀刻废液得以再生循环利用,铜得以100%回收,低含铜废水铜得到98%回收,整个系统不产生二次污染,获得的铜为高纯度铜板,在实现污染控制的同时,废液废水得到了资源化利用。     

南方沙地开发利用途径的探讨

根据南方风沙化地自然及气候的特点，提出并讨论了在风沙化土地区营造防风固沙林；建立沙地果业基地；发展沙区畜牧水产业；搞好沙地蔬菜生产；完善农防林体系建设，发展沙区工业等开发利用模式。