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231.
232.
This paper resolves the problem of predicting as well as the best expert up to an additive term of the order o(n), where n is the length of a sequence of letters from a finite alphabet. We call the games that permit this weakly mixable and give a geometrical characterisation of the class of weakly mixable games. Weak mixability turns out to be equivalent to convexity of the finite part of the set of superpredictions. For bounded games we introduce the Weak Aggregating Algorithm that allows us to obtain additive terms of the form . 相似文献
233.
K. Marti 《Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering》2008,198(1):42-51
Problems from plastic analysis are based on the convex, linear or linearised yield/strength condition and the linear equilibrium equation for the stress (state) vector. In practice one has to take into account stochastic variations of several model parameters. Hence, in order to get robust maximum load factors, the structural analysis problem with random parameters must be replaced by an appropriate deterministic substitute problem. A direct approach is proposed based on the primary costs for missing carrying capacity and the recourse costs (e.g. costs for repair, compensation for weakness within the structure, damage, failure, etc.). Based on the mechanical survival conditions of plasticity theory, a quadratic error/loss criterion is developed. The minimum recourse costs can be determined then by solving an optimisation problem having a quadratic objective function and linear constraints. For each vector a(·) of model parameters and each design vector x, one obtains then an explicit representation of the “best” internal load distribution F∗. Moreover, also the expected recourse costs can be determined explicitly. Consequently, an explicit stochastic nonlinear program results for finding a robust maximal load factor μ∗. The analytical properties and possible solution procedures are discussed. 相似文献
234.
In an organization operating in the bancassurance sector we identified a low-risk IT subportfolio of 84 IT projects comprising together 16,500 function points, each project varying in size and duration, for which we were able to quantify its requirements volatility. This representative portfolio stems from a much larger portfolio of IT projects. We calculated the volatility from the function point countings that were available to us. These figures were aggregated into a requirements volatility benchmark. We found that maximum requirements volatility rates depend on size and duration, which refutes currently known industrial averages. For instance, a monthly growth rate of 5% is considered a critical failure factor, but in our low-risk portfolio we found more than 21% of successful projects with a volatility larger than 5%. We proposed a mathematical model taking size and duration into account that provides a maximum healthy volatility rate that is more in line with the reality of low-risk IT portfolios. Based on the model, we proposed a tolerance factor expressing the maximal volatility tolerance for a project or portfolio. For a low-risk portfolio its empirically found tolerance is apparently acceptable, and values exceeding this tolerance are used to trigger IT decision makers. We derived two volatility ratios from this model, the π-ratio and the ρ-ratio. These ratios express how close the volatility of a project has approached the danger zone when requirements volatility reaches a critical failure rate. The volatility data of a governmental IT portfolio were juxtaposed to our bancassurance benchmark, immediately exposing a problematic project, which was corroborated by its actual failure. When function points are less common, e.g. in the embedded industry, we used daily source code size measures and illustrated how to govern the volatility of a software product line of a hardware manufacturer. With the three real-world portfolios we illustrated that our results serve the purpose of an early warning system for projects that are bound to fail due to excessive volatility. Moreover, we developed essential requirements volatility metrics that belong on an IT governance dashboard and presented such a volatility dashboard. 相似文献
235.
A multi-objective controller synthesis problem is considered in which an output is to be regulated approximately by assuring a bound on the steady-state peak amplification in response to an infinite-energy disturbance, while also guaranteeing a desired level of performance measured in terms of the worst-case energy gain from a finite-energy input to a performance output. Relying on a characterization of the controllers with which almost asymptotic regulation is accomplished, the problem of guaranteeing the desired level of performance is reduced to solving a system of linear matrix inequalities subject to a set of linear equality constraints. Based on the solution of this system, a procedure is outlined for the construction of a suitable controller whose order is equal to the order of the plant plus the order of the exogenous system. 相似文献
236.
control with limited communication and message losses 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We propose an H∞ approach to a remote control problem where the communication is constrained due to the use of a shared channel. The controller employs a periodic time sequencing scheme for message transmissions from multiple sensors and to multiple actuators of the system. It further takes into account the information on the random message losses that occur in the channel. An exact characterization for controller synthesis is obtained and is stated in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Furthermore, an analysis on the loss probabilities of the messages to accomplish stabilization is carried out. The results are illustrated through a numerical example. 相似文献
237.
A new likelihood based AR approximation is given for ARMA models. The usual algorithms for the computation of the likelihood of an ARMA model require O(n) flops per function evaluation. Using our new approximation, an algorithm is developed which requires only O(1) flops in repeated likelihood evaluations. In most cases, the new algorithm gives results identical to or very close to the exact maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). This algorithm is easily implemented in high level quantitative programming environments (QPEs) such as Mathematica, MatLab and R. In order to obtain reasonable speed, previous ARMA maximum likelihood algorithms are usually implemented in C or some other machine efficient language. With our algorithm it is easy to do maximum likelihood estimation for long time series directly in the QPE of your choice. The new algorithm is extended to obtain the MLE for the mean parameter. Simulation experiments which illustrate the effectiveness of the new algorithm are discussed. Mathematica and R packages which implement the algorithm discussed in this paper are available [McLeod, A.I., Zhang, Y., 2007. Online supplements to “Faster ARMA Maximum Likelihood Estimation”, 〈http://www.stats.uwo.ca/faculty/aim/2007/faster/〉]. Based on these package implementations, it is expected that the interested researcher would be able to implement this algorithm in other QPEs. 相似文献
238.
One of the main problems in operational risk management is the lack of loss data, which affects the parameter estimates of the marginal distributions of the losses. The principal reason is that financial institutions only started to collect operational loss data a few years ago, due to the relatively recent definition of this type of risk. Considering this drawback, the employment of Bayesian methods and simulation tools could be a natural solution to the problem. The use of Bayesian methods allows us to integrate the scarce and, sometimes, inaccurate quantitative data collected by the bank with prior information provided by experts. An original proposal is a Bayesian approach for modelling operational risk and for calculating the capital required to cover the estimated risks. Besides this methodological innovation a computational scheme, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, is required. In particular, the application of the MCMC method to estimate the parameters of the marginals shows advantages in terms of a reduction of capital charge according to different choices of the marginal loss distributions. 相似文献
239.
Jeremy Brandman 《Journal of scientific computing》2008,37(3):282-315
We demonstrate, through separation of variables and estimates from the semi-classical analysis of the Schrödinger operator, that the eigenvalues of an elliptic operator defined on a compact hypersurface in ? n can be found by solving an elliptic eigenvalue problem in a bounded domain Ω?? n . The latter problem is solved using standard finite element methods on the Cartesian grid. We also discuss the application of these ideas to solving evolution equations on surfaces, including a new proof of a result due to Greer (J. Sci. Comput. 29(3):321–351, 2006). 相似文献
240.
提出一种基于佳点集原理的进化策略用于神经网络结构和参数的调整.为了克服正交设计法的一些不足来处理高维最优化问题,本文采用分步交叉框架,将佳点集技术引入实数域交叉算子增强高维空间的搜索能力.前馈神经网络的隐含节点与连接边数从小逐步递增直至学习效果足够好.通过调整能得到一个部分连接的前馈网络,减少了网络实现的耗费.最后,佳点集进化策略有效应用于生成预测太阳黑子的演化神经网络.实验结果证明了新方法的有效性. 相似文献