基于DFA的桑干河水文气象因子的趋势分析

研究区域的气象因子(气温、降水和蒸发)及径流的长期演变特性,对于水文水资源系统的预报、模拟具有十分重要的作用。采用非趋势波动(DFA)分析法,对桑干河近55年(1955年-2010年)的气象因子的变化及石匣里水文站1955年-1990年的径流量的变化进行了分析,计算得到气温、蒸发、降水和径流的标度指数的数值分别为0.523 9、0.696 8、0.723 7、1.201 1,其中气温、降水和蒸发的标度指数居于0.5～1之间,而径流的标度指数大于1,分析结果表明,未来该流域的气温将呈升高的趋势,而蒸发和降水呈逐渐减少的趋势,降水的减少将更为显著,径流未来的变化趋势不能用DFA法来识别,有待于进一步的研究。     

基于干旱过程模拟的旱情综合评估方法应用研究

在对国内外干旱评估方法研究进行综述的基础上,指出干旱起因是降水偏少,但发展成灾,则有一个缓慢渐进过程,它不仅取决于降水、气温等气象条件,还与地形、土壤、作物等因素密切相关。考虑到旱灾的成因是多条件的,旱灾的影响和体现也是多方面的,只有结合干旱发展的各阶段,才能全面地认识和评估旱情。利用基于分布式水文模拟的干旱模型,在完整模拟干旱发生发展和结束过程的基础上,整合多种旱情指标,提出能反映干旱发展过程主要特征的旱情综合评估方法体系,并以长江上游川渝地区2006年严重干旱事件为例,开展了应用示例研究。     

风电项目全生命周期气象灾害风险管理

依据风电项目全生命周期阶段的划分,将风电场气象灾害的分析、识别、评估、管理贯穿于各个阶段,形成一个有机的管理体系.通过管理体系的研究,对风电项目全生命周期气象灾害管理的流程建立、组织构建、制度修订、行为规范、检查反馈等提供支撑.     

Detecting changes in sediment sources in drought periods: The Latrobe River case study

The transfer of sediments through the landscape (sediment connectivity) depends on hydrological conditions. This study aimed at assessing changes in sediment sources engendered under extreme drought. A sediment budget model that considered hillslope sediment connectivity was applied to the Latrobe River catchment (South-east Australia) in a relatively normal period (1990–1996) followed by part of the ‘Millennium Drought’ (1997–2005). Bayesian inference was applied to optimize monthly streamflow and calibrate sediment parameters against mean annual specific sediment yields at ten monitoring stations. In 1990–1996, assessed sediment yield at the outlet was 68 kt/y; 60% of sediments originated from net hillslope erosion and 40% from streambank erosion. In 1997–2005, sediment yield decreased to 13 kt/y, 27% from net hillslope erosion against 65% from streambank erosion. During the drought, both hillslope gross erosion and hillslope sediment connectivity decreased dramatically. Streambank protection is of the utmost importance under all hydrologic conditions and especially during drought periods.     

谈乡镇防办能力建设

阐述了加强乡镇防办能力建设的意义，根据江西省新余市乡镇防汛机构普遍存在的问题，提出相关对策．     

Drought contingency planning

Simulation gaming has the potential to enhance the effectiveness of drought management planning. The Indianapolis water supply system is used to illustrate how. First, the probability of experiencing a severe drought in Indianapolis is examined using historical streamflow data. The effects of such a drought on the municipal water supply system are then analysed using a recently developed simulation model of the Indianapolis water system. Consideration is given to the water resource decision-making problems that might arise under drought conditions, along with a discussion of the benefits of employing simulation gaming in the analysis of these problems. A basic outline for the design of a drought management simulation exercise is presented.     

供水方式对春小麦根源信号和水分利用效率的影响

用圆柱状管栽实验研究了上层供水和下层供水对春小麦根源信号和水分利用效率的影响。供试春小麦品种为陇春8139-2和高原602.处理方式为：1)整个管体内土壤含水量保持在80%～90%田间持水量(FWC)(IF)；2)土壤表面以下10cm处浇水使管内整体土壤含水量保持在50～60%FWC(IT);3)在管体长7／10处浇水使管内整体土壤含水量保持在50～60%FWC(IB).相对于IF和IT处理，苗期到分蘖期IB处理叶气孔导度显著下降，但叶水势基本不变，表明有明显的非水力根信号现象。在拔节期及以后，IB处理土壤上层根生物量比例下降，中层根生物量增加，非水力根信号消失。IB处理的水分利用效率显著高于其它处理，这意味着播种前通过水量较多的灌溉增加深层土壤水分将有利于提高水分利用效率。     

河北21世纪水利发展的思路与对策

河北是个水旱灾害频繁的省份,面临着严重资源性缺水、突发性暴雨洪水灾害和水环境恶化等难题,在２１世纪,力争用３０年的时间建成“三个体系”,实现“三个确保”,加速由工程水利向资源水利、由传统水利的现代水利的转变。