安徽省旱涝急转规律的认识与研究

旱涝急转是指某一地区或某一流域发生较长时间干旱时，突遇集中强降雨，引发山洪暴发、河水陡涨．客水入侵、内水难以及时外排的一种自然现象。旱涝急转极易造成人员伤亡、水库垮坝等重大经济损失。在防汛抗旱中，安徽省要充分认识旱涝急转的危害性，加强应急管理，具体包括思想上保持高度的警觉，加快防汛抗旱工程体系和预测预警体系建设，有效应对旱涝急转。     

全球气候变暖对水资源的影响

全球气候变暖加剧了干旱、洪涝、台风等自然灾害的发生，是目前各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的热点问题。根据有关资料对气候变暖研究进展情况作相关介绍，可供参考。     

辽宁省2000年夏季干旱分析

本文针对辽宁省2000年发生的干旱,从大气环流、气候、降水、径流、水资源量等方面,较系统地阐述了各因素的发展规律、特点及物理成因。采用降水指标、径流指标、受旱率进行干旱程度分析。评价出辽宁省2000年干旱为特大干旱。     

转制科研单位建立和完善内部会计控制的探讨

针对目前大多数科研单位在内部会计控制中存在的问题,根据财政部颁布的《内部会计控制规范一基本规范》,探讨了科研单位在转制过程中应如何建立和完善内部会计控制制度,以达到防范经营风险,保护资产安全、完整,确保经营管理目标和政策有效实施.     

中国的主要水问题及水文学的机遇

从水资源开发利用与保护、水旱灾害防治等方面论述中国当前存在的主要水问题：水危机和水浪费同时存在、水污染日趋严重、防洪减灾任重道远、生态环境破坏严重、全球气候变暖产生不利影响；进而论述水文学研究面临的新课题：水文现象的不确定性、人类活动对水文的影响、水位频率计算、水资源开发利用的最佳效应、水资源供需分析、农业节水灌溉机理及水旱灾害的防治，并指出必须加强对这些新课题的研究     

Non-parametric empirical Bayes procedure

In this paper we introduce an empirical Bayes procedure for estimating an unknown parameter, say θ. This procedure gives the empirical Bayes estimator for θ and its associated minimum posterior risk in closed forms without estimating the unknown prior density function of θ. In such procedure the posterior probability density function of θ is not required. A sufficient statistic for θ with conditional probability density function in the one parameter exponential family is required. Instead of estimating the unknown prior density function, the marginal density function of the sufficient statistic must be estimated. As special cases the empirical Bayes estimators and their respective minimum posterior risks of the failure rate for the exponential distribution, the unknown scale parameters of Weibull and gamma distributions are obtained in simple forms as special cases. Numerical results and a simulation study are introduced to (i) investigate how the number of available past experiments and the sample size of each influence the accuracy of the empirical Bayes estimator, (ii) make a comparison between the presented procedure and the Bayes procedure when the prior probability density function of the parameter θ is gamma.     

增加黄金储备规避外汇风险

近几年，我国外汇储备逐年增加，而美元汇率偏弱，使我国承担很大的外汇风险。为了规避外汇风险，应增加黄金储备。文中提出了我国增加黄金储备总量的理由以及增加黄金储备的途径。这些建议具有可操作性，可以提供给有关部门参考。     

Fetal Neurobehavioral Development: A Tale of Two Cities.

Longitudinal neurobehavioral development was examined in 237 fetuses of low-risk pregnancies from 2 distinct populations-Baltimore, Maryland, and Lima. Peru-at 20. 24. 28. 32, 36. and 38 weeks gestation. Data were based on digitized Doppler-based fetal heart rate (FHR) and fetal movement (FM). In both groups. FHR declined while variability, episodic accelerations, and FM-FHR coupling increased, with discontinuities evident between 28 and 32 weeks gestation. Fetuses in Lima had higher FHR and lower variability, accelerations, and FM-FHR coupling. Declines in trajectories were typically observed 1 month sooner in Lima, which magnified these disparities. Motor activity differences were less consistent. No sex differences in fetal neurobehaviors were detected. It is concluded that population factors can influence the developmental niche of the fetus. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

高坝风险分析的事件树法

新世纪一批高坝将要在我国开工建设,这对我国的水电能源及国民经济的发展有着不可估量的作用,而高坝建设中,安全性是需要首先保证的。目前对高坝的风险分析方法有主观概率法、客观概率法等。从系统工程的角度出发,采用事件树方法对高坝的风险进行了探索研究,并给出了算例以说明该方法的有效性和实用性。     

Technical risk involved in long-term operation of steam turbines

The scope of the paper is the assessment of the technical risk involved in long-term operation of power units. Detailed analyses have been conducted for steam turbine components. The sources and consequences of risk have been identified and the probability of turbine components failure calculated. The quantitative assessment of the risk has been made and possibilities of its reduction discussed.