基于流水线模式的河系径流预报并发计算研究

在河系径流预报计算中,一方面受单站水文过程计算复杂性影响,另一方面下游站点依赖上游关联节点,现有洪水预报系统在河系预报计算时多采用串联模式进行计算。这在河流系预报节点较多、模型方法略为复杂时,计算效率较低。为突破河系径流预报计算效率瓶颈,本研究引入流水线并行模式,对河系径流预报站点初始化、单元产汇流计算、河道洪水演算、校正分析等模块进行拆解,构建流水线式工作站,将径流预报站点按水力联系连续入站,实现河系节点集径流过程的平行并发计算。选取淮河正阳关以上流域50余断面进行了模拟试验,结果表明：研究构建的并发计算方法计算结果可靠,较串行结构效率提升超3倍,可满足洪水预报实时性要求、尤其适用于B/S模式对系统响应效率的需求。     

基于ETM＋的北京西部山区乔木群落结构研究

利用遥感技术结合地面调查的方法对2008年春季北京西部山区乔木群落的多样性进行了研究。提取归一化植被指数（NDVI）,并计算NDVI随时间的变化率（△NDVI）;利用地面调查数据计算研究区的健康指数、Mar-galef丰富度指数、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数和Simpson多样性指数,并分析△NDVI、健康指数和多样性指数之间的关系。结果表明：（1）健康指数和多样性指数之间存在正相关关系,群落多样性指数越高,群落的整体健康状况越好。（2）△NDVI与健康指数之间呈正相关关系,健康指数越高的群落,单位时间内NDVI的增加值越大,植被群落的生长变化越明显。（3）△NDVI的高低可以代表区域植被的健康程度,反映区域植物群落的丰富度、多样性。△NDVI的值越高,植被群落的健康程度越好,植被群落的丰富度、多样性指数越高。本文的研究较好的将遥感技术和地面调查相结合,对△NDVI与群落植被健康程度、多样性指数进行了研究和验证,为以后研究植被群落多样性提供了一定的借鉴。     

涞源岩溶地下水系统泉水量变化特征分析

涞源泉泉域是一个全封闭式泉排型岩溶水系统,泉水利用对当地工农业生产发挥了重要作用.通过对涞源岩溶地下水系统特征分析,利用地表水系列资料,采用基流分割法、相关系数法等,计算出泉水量系列资料.由降水补给地下水,再以泉水的形式排泄,在此过程中使水量在时间上滞后,而且水量趋于平稳,泉水量年极值比为7.33,变差系数为0.34,年内分配变化幅度平缓.由降水—入渗—地下径流—泉水排出的过程,水资源经过地下岩溶调节作用,有利于水资源的开发利用,而且对水质也起到净化作用.研究和分析岩溶地下水径流量变化特征,为合理利用泉水资源提供科学依据.     

人类活动及气候变化对河北省地表径流量的影响

利用河北省1956-2000年水文、气象资料,对现状下垫面时间进行了界定,建立了下垫面变化前后降水与地表径流的相关关系,定量评价了人类活动对地表径流量的影响。根据现状下垫面条件下的径流量系列与气候要素(降水量、蒸发量、气温)之间的关系,建立了对数型非线性统计模型,其相关显著,灵敏度较高。根据2030、2050年气候情景数据预测河北省地表径流量的变化:与标准气候值相比,2030年降水量将增加4%～12%,气温升高1.1℃～1.4℃,径流量为106.5～128.9×108m3;2050年降水量将增加4%～14%;气温升高1.7℃～2.2℃,径流量为95.7～123.0×108m3。     

EPISODIC SUSPENDED SEDIMENT TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBON CONCENTRATIONS IN A SMALL,MOUNTAINOUS RIVER IN COASTAL CALIFORNIA

Suspended sediment and organic contaminants were measured during a period of 2 years in the San Lorenzo River, central California, which discharges into the Pacific Ocean within the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, in an effort to quantify the potential environmental effects of storm events from a steep, mountainous coastal urban watershed. Most suspended sediment transport occurred during flooding caused by winter storms; 56% of the total sediment load for the 2‐year study was transported by the river during one storm event in January 2010. Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons can exceed regulatory criteria during high‐flow events in the San Lorenzo River, and total annual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon load was on the order of 10 kg in water year 2010. These results highlight the importance of episodic sediment and contaminant transport in steep, mountainous coastal watersheds and emphasize the importance of understanding physical processes and quantifying chemical constituents in discharge from coastal watersheds on event‐scale terms. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

森林水文效应的综合分析

引用森林水文实验站和国家水文基本站网中的森林流域和非森林流域的实测资料,进行同步期的对比分析.对于试验小流域或径流场,总结出林冠截留、树干径流和林地拦蓄的一些统计结果,并归纳得到可供利用的计算公式.对于大面积森林流域,主要从基本水文站网中,森林覆盖率明显不同而其它自然地理条件类似的测站进行对比分析,当干旱指数小于1.2的地区,森林使年径流增加,当干旱指数大于1.2的地区,森林使年径流减少.     

江苏太湖流域降雨径流年际变化分析

以江苏太湖流域（1956—2012）降雨为基础,分析江苏太湖流域径流及时空变化特征,研究该流域降雨径流的年际年内变化及两者的变化关系。结果表明：降雨径流都呈增长趋势。降雨平均每10年增加29mm,径流平均每10年增加26mm;降雨在年内季节分配上,夏季、冬季呈加大趋势,春季、秋季呈减小趋势;加大的降水年内分配的不均导致径流在年内分配的更加不均匀,径流集中在汛期,汛期径流量约达年径流量的84．8％,加大了某季节内的洪水、干旱风险。     

Estimation of the Water Resources Potential in the Island System of the Aegean Archipelago,Greece

Abstract

The present paper tries to estimate the surface water resources potential in some of the major Aegean islands in an effort to provide a means for the continuous development of the region, and, by extension, for similar areas around the world. The islands have to confront the challenge of surviving in a semiarid environment under the constraints of uneven water resources distribution both in space and time. In addition to these, tourism development, industrialization and highly water consumptive life styles have exacerbated perennial problems in water resources and water resources management. The framework of the present effort has a two-prong emphasis. In the first part, a simulation model is presented, which tries to estimate the potential surface runoff under physical, structural organizational, and institutional constraints. The methodology and the premises of the simulation process are delineated. In the second part, the results of the model's application in distinct cases are demarcated. The final product, namely the model and the resulting runoff coefficients, are presented in the form of a standard, which may provide practitioners in the field as well as decisionmakers the means for an initial reference in pertinent developmental efforts. Finally, the conclusions and recommendations raise the question of ecosystem resilience and point towards the urgent and continuous need for the application of integrated water resources management principles.     

Monthly Joint Operations for the Nakdong Multi-reservoir System in Korea

Abstract

This study applies a state-of-art optimization technique, SSDP/ESP (Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction), to derive a monthly joint operating policy for the Nakdong multi-reservoir system in Korea. A rainfall-runoff model, SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis And Reservoir Regulation), is linked to the SSDP/ESP model to provide ESP scenarios for runoff during the next month in the Nakdong River basin. The primary advantage of the SSDP/ESP is that it updates the derived operating policy as new ESP forecasts become available. Another SSDP model that employs historical runoff scenarios (SSDP/Hist) is also developed. The main difference between the two SSDP models is that SSDP/Hist is an off-line model whereas the SSDP/ESP is on-line. The developed operating policies are tested with a simulation model using an object-oriented simulation software, STELLA. The simulation results show that SSDP/ESP is superior to SSDP/Hist with respect to the water supply criterion, although both models perform similarly with respect to the hydroelectric energy production criterion.     

中型山区河流水电站下游的鱼类生态需水量计算

为更好地对河流水电开发后的鱼类进行保护,探讨中型山区河流水电站下游的鱼类生态需水量计算.参照大型河流鱼类水力生境参数标准,根据中型山区河流的特点,得到中型山区河流鱼类水力生境参数的参考标准.选取有代表性的四川中型山区河流杂谷脑河进行鱼类生境原型观测,原型观测结果证实了该参考标准能够满足杂谷脑河鱼类对生境的实际需求.基于所得到的参考标准,应用生态水力学法对杂谷脑河红叶二级、理县以及甘堡3座电站减水河段的鱼类生态需水量进行计算分析,得到3座电站的生态需水量推荐值.通过分析可知,所得到的生态需水量推荐值占年均天然流量以及设计引用流量的比例都不高,在3座电站的运行实践中,具有可操作性.