对数正态概率纸的自动生成和分布参数的自动提取

采用对数正态概率纸可以直观地判断一组数据是否服从对数正态分布，而且还可以得到对数正态分布参数，即对数均值和对数标准差。介绍对数正态概率纸自动生成和分布参数自动提取的方法以及据此开发的软件。与手工使用概率纸的常规方法相比，采用所开发的软件不但使用简单、方便，而且能提高计算结果的精度。     

山区水库溢洪道和放水洞工程布置优化组合及型式选择

山区河流上修水库与平原水库不同的是，地形复杂、地质条件各异。要充分利用坝址处的地物地貌及地质条件，如何趋利避害，合理布置水库的土坝走向，放水洞与溢洪道的位置及型式，以取得安全、经济、美观三者协调统一。     

A new approach for sequential experimental design for model discrimination

Model discrimination procedures are useful tools for selection of the best mathematical models to be used to represent a specific chemical process. The present paper presents and discusses a new sequential discrimination procedure, which makes use of model probabilities and concentrates the efforts on models with higher probabilities. Model probabilities are determined based on simple statistical arguments. Four numerical examples illustrate the application of the proposed discrimination procedure. The obtained results indicate that the new procedure is able to discriminate kinetic models with fewer experiments when compared to other procedures and also indicates when model discrimination is not possible and, thus, when the sequential design must be halted. Furthermore, the speed of the proposed discrimination procedure can be controlled by tuning a design parameter which reflects the analyst's mood (confidence) towards the discrimination problem and allows for increase or decrease of the number of experiments required for model discrimination during the sequential procedure.     

变权组合预测模型在大坝安全监测中的应用

简要介绍了组合预测模型的基本原理，该模型改进了单一模型考虑因素的片面性，但常规的组合预测模型的权系数是固定的。考虑到各种模型的预测精度的变化，以及大坝安全监测数据存在的突变、时效等因素，固定权系数的组合预测模型有待进一步改进。文中提出了变权系数组合预测模型，并将其用于实际的大坝安全监测工程。结果表明，变权组合预测模型的预报精度高于其他模型。是一种值得推广的方法。     

空爆毁伤地面机动目标扫描准则研究

文中主要针对多爆炸成型弹丸空爆战斗部,在分析区域识别和占空比识别两种不同扫描准则的基础上,应用蒙特卡洛方法计算了战斗部对目标的毁伤概率.通过仿真计算结果对比分析,获得了不同扫描准则对毁伤概率的影响,结果可为多爆炸成型弹丸空爆战斗部设计和选择使用扫描准则提供参考依据.     

在役油气管道安全评定软件

PSAforWindows是运行在Windows系统下的油气管道安全评定软件。该软件既可以用于在开挖中发现的管道局部缺陷的剩余强度的精确评定 ,又可以用于腐蚀检测之后对管道全线的安全评定与剩余寿命预测。软件中采用了非线性有限元分析、失效评定图和概率性的评定方法等最新成果。介绍该软件的结构、模块、软件特点、主要功能和操作界面     

注入剖面五参数组合测井仪的改进

文章介绍了注入剖面五参数组合测井仪及对该仪器的改进与完善，特别是对流量计的结构进行了改进。流量计下端采用水阻尼和机械弹簧两种保护措施，有效地保护了涡轮；过芯加重改成通用加重下挂到涡轮流量计上，有效地减少了涡轮粘污，提高了组合测井仪的测井成功率。改进后测井成功率从60％提高到90％。同时。对数据处理与传输电路也进行了改进，新开发研制了PPM码数据传输体系，使组合仪耐温指标提高到175℃。     

Almost k-wise independence versus k-wise independence

We say that a distribution over {0,1}ⁿ is (ε,k)-wise independent if its restriction to every k coordinates results in a distribution that is ε-close to the uniform distribution. A natural question regarding (ε,k)-wise independent distributions is how close they are to some k-wise independent distribution. We show that there exist (ε,k)-wise independent distributions whose statistical distance is at least n^O(k)·ε from any k-wise independent distribution. In addition, we show that for any (ε,k)-wise independent distribution there exists some k-wise independent distribution, whose statistical distance is n^O(k)·ε.     

The meaning(s) of conditionals: Conditional probabilities, mental models, and personal utilities.

[Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 29(6) of Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition (see record 2007-16865-001). On page 684, Table 4, all correlations should have been identified as having a pp then q") as indicating a high conditional probability P(q|p). Participants estimated the probability that a given conditional is true (Experiments 1A, 1B, and 3) or judged whether a conditional was true or false (Experiments 2 and 4) given information about the frequencies of the relevant truth table cases. Judgments were strongly influenced by the ratio of pq to p?q cases, supporting the conditional probability account. In Experiments 1A, 1B, and 3, judgments were also affected by the frequency of pq cases, consistent with a version of mental model theory. Experiments 3 and 4 extended the results to thematic conditionals and showed that the pragmatic utility associated with believing a statement also affected the degree of belief in conditionals but not in logically equivalent quantified statements. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

长庆油田陕北区原油破乳剂的筛选和复配

实验考察了8种市售水溶性破乳荆对长庆油田陕北区有代表性的宝塔区、安塞和子长原油(均为低硫中间基-石蜡基原油)的脱水效果(加量100mg／L，脱水温度55℃，时间3h)。目前长庆采油一厂使用的YT-100和延炼集团使用的GT-940对这3种原油的脱水效果均较好，但对子长原油的脱水率不高，分别为69．7％和58．9％。在由所选性能较好的破乳刺组成的4种二元复配物中，GT-940 HQ96-1对3种原油的脱水效果均高于单剂，最佳配比分别为4：1，4：1，3：2；其余3种复配物则对原油有选择性，其中GT-940 YT-100相近(97．5％)；YT-100 HQ96-1仅能改善子长原油的脱水效果，配比为4：1时脱水率最高(76．4％)；SP-169 HQ96-1仅能改善宝塔区原油的脱水效果．配比3：2和2：3时脱水率最高(92．9％)。表5参6。