基于摄像视频分析的降雨量测量方法

提出一种新颖的基于视频的降雨量测量方法。首先 根据雨图亮度变化特征检测雨滴;其次,为解决雨滴离摄像机距离信息未知情况下的雨滴尺 寸估计问题,在雨滴成像光度模型中融入散聚焦因素, 构建了基于亮度差和色彩张量响应特征的散聚焦雨滴判别方法;然后,根据透视成像关系计 算聚焦雨滴的尺寸并根据气象学 雨滴谱的定义来构建观测雨滴谱;最后,为抑制观测雨滴谱中的噪声,采用气象学Gamma模 型拟合观测雨滴谱,并由模型参 数计算降雨量。在不同程度的降雨环境下实验检验算法,并与雨量计记 录数据对比,测量结果较为一致。     

Contact duration aware evaluation for content dissemination delay in mobile social network

Groups of people with mobile phones using short‐range connections such as WiFi and Bluetooth to propagate messages can be modeled as, with regard to regular absence of end‐to‐end connection, mobile social networks (MSNs), which can be exploited to offload a significant amount of mobile content from the overloaded infrastructure networks such as 3G. The study of content transmission delay for the applications of mobile content dissemination in MSNs is an important problem, because to enhance the network capacity, the traffic is offloaded at the cost of inducing longer delay. In contrast to existing works, which ignore the factors of contact duration limits and large content size, we present a contact duration aware framework to model the content dissemination process in MSNs, give an explicit expression for the average content dissemination delay, and reveals its relationship with various system parameters of content size, users’ selfishness, number of involved subscribers, infecting ratio, and so on. We apply our proposed model to real‐life traces to assess its reliability by comparing the theoretical results with measured statistics and present extensive upshots to evaluate the influence of various parameters on system performance. The results demonstrate the accuracy of our proposed framework and reveal that system parameters of content size, system infecting ratio and intragroup transmission are the most important factors to influence the content dissemination delay. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of sensitivity information on the prediction of project's duration using earned schedule method

Recently, the prediction of project duration has been investigated in earned value management (EVM) using three earned value methods, planed value (PVM), earned duration (EDM) and earned schedule (ESM). The investigation has shown that ESM method outperforms on average the other two methods and fails in case of wrong warning coming from non-critical activities which suffer from delays and/or ahead of schedule. The objective of this paper is twofold: first, we study the impact of the activities' sensitivity information on the forecasting accuracy of the ESM method. Second, we test the claim that in normal conditions the project performance indicator provided by ESM at higher work breakdown structure is reliable. More precisely, activity based sensitivity measures are used as weighing parameters of the activities to improve the schedule performance of a project by removing or decreasing the negative effect of wrong warning of the non-critical activities. The computational results of a simulation study on a big benchmark projects reveal that the sensitivity information are capable of improving the forecasting accuracy of the ESM method.     

Proposal of a semi-probabilistic approach for storage facility design

Storage facilities are key devices in mitigating the urban drainage impact on receiving water bodies, but their design is still affected by high uncertainty. The analytical-probabilistic approach has recently raised interest, because the facility performances are directly related to probability. Starting from statistically independent storm events, distributions of the meteorological variables must be fitted. Rainfall series, recorded in three Italian raingauges, were examined for appraising two main concerns: the choice of proper probability distributions for rainfall volume and the sample sensitivity with respect to the analysis criterion. The analytical derivation of the model is then finally discussed.     

Statistical evaluation on storm sewer design criteria under climate change in Seoul,South Korea

This study conducted statistical analysis under both stationary and non-stationary climate using rainfall data measured in Seoul, South Korea. The 50 year annual maximum rainfall data were analysed with generalised extreme value distribution and Gumbel distribution. Possible rainfall changes were predicted with nonstationary forms of the two distributions, considering time variable location parameters. The current storm sewer design criteria were assessed by reflecting climate change implications and expected lifetime performance. Expected return periods were reduced to 4.67, 8.66, 19.16 and 23.53 years for the current 10 min - 5, 10, 30 and 50 years. The newly suggested design criteria of 5, 10, 30 and 50 yr return period storm events were 5.3, 12, 48 and 107 years for the 10 min duration for a 50 year lifetime expectancy.     

Bacterial contamination due to point and nonpoint source pollution in a rapidly growing urban center in an arid region

The distribution of bacterial contaminants (Escherichia coli and total coliforms) and nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) in a rapidly growing metropolitan area, the Las Vegas Valley, were studied to assess the contributions of point and nonpoint pollution sources under dry weather flow (pre rainfall) and wet weather flow (post rainfall) events. Nonpoint sources emanating from urban centers and septic seepage were found to be a primary source of bacterial contamination in the Las Vegas Wash, a mainstream wash channel where the Las Vegas Valley watershed drains. Contribution of point sources (wastewater treatment plants) to E. coli and total coliforms were found to be negligible. However, data in the Tropicana/Flamingo Wash, a tributary of the Las Vegas Wash, showed high bacterial activities in the wet antecedent rainfall condition as compared to the pre-rain dry antecedent condition suggesting that the rainfall increased bacterial activities.     

考虑降雨入渗的边坡稳定性分析

采用极限平衡分析法,建立了能考虑降雨入渗的饱和—非饱和边坡稳定性分析方法,对降雨条件下边坡稳定性变化规律进行了分析,计算结果表明,抗剪强度参数、边坡初始状态都对边坡稳定性具有明显影响,降雨造成的孔隙水压力变化比自重增大对边坡稳定性的影响更大.     

Synthesis of hexagonal boron nitride fibers within two hour annealing at 500 °C and two hour growth duration at 1000 °C

Several advantageous features like low density, large surface area, high porosity and tight pore size make the nanofiber suitable for a wide range of applications from medical to consumer products and industrial to high-tech applications. Present study concerns the synthesis of hexagonal boron nitride fibers (Ø=70–350 nm) from a mixture of Boron, Magnesium oxide and Iron oxide powders via a simple CVD technique. A relatively long annealing and growth duration of two hours at 500 °C and 1000 °C, respectively were utilized in this synthesis. The synthesized samples seem to have the BNFs of irregular curved human hair-like morphologies in lower resolution and solid cylinder-like structures in high resolution transmission electron microscopy. The presence of Boron and Nitrogen in the synthesized BNF's sample were confirmed via the B 1s peak at 190.7 eV and N 1s peak at 398.3 eV in the XPS survey whereas a major peak at 1370 (cm⁻¹) in the Raman spectrum corresponds to the vibration of E_2g mode in h-BN. The sharp peaks in the XRD pattern verify the h-BN phase and highly crystalline nature of the synthesized BNFs.     

北京洪水峪泥石流形成条件探讨

洪水峪泥石流、沟内崩塌、不稳定斜坡等不良地质现象发育。该沟内煤矸石、沟道物源丰富,上游汇水面积大,沟道纵坡降较大,在强降雨沟道径流冲刷作用下,极易发生揭底起动而形成泥石流灾害。在雨季,支沟常有少量泥沙、块石冲出,阻塞进山道路,淤塞河道,引起原有坝体损毁,威胁居民生命财产安全。通过对以往资料的综合整理,结合现场调查,对洪水峪泥石流形成的诸多条件进行了分析,以期对该区泥石流的防治与预测起到参考作用。     

Periodic autoregressive conditional duration

We propose an autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model with periodic time-varying parameters and multiplicative error form. We name this model periodic autoregressive conditional duration (PACD). First, we study the stability properties and the moment structures of it. Second, we estimate the model parameters, using (profile and two-stage) Gamma quasi-maximum likelihood estimates (QMLEs), the asymptotic properties of which are examined under general regularity conditions. Our estimation method encompasses the exponential QMLE, as a particular case. The proposed methodology is illustrated with simulated data and two empirical applications on forecasting Bitcoin trading volume and realized volatility. We found that the PACD produces better in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts than the standard ACD.