Weight loss from ripening berries of Shiraz grapevines (Vitis vinifera L. cv. Shiraz)

Environmental and phenological correlatives associated with the onset of weight loss during ripening in Vitis vinifera cv. Shiraz berries were examined. An irrigation experiment concerned with transient water deficit effects on berry growth over four consecutive seasons provided source data. Timing of maximum berry weight was more closely correlated with the number of days after flowering than with temperature summation. Prior to maximum berry weight, Brix was more closely correlated with days after flowering than with temperature summation, while the number of days from flowering to 10 and 15Brix was remarkably uniform despite contrasting seasons. Driving variables for weight loss during advanced ripening remain a matter of conjecture, but loss of berry water under highly evaporative conditions of late summer is a likely contributor.     

地闪参量特征的统计分析

通过对北京和兰州中川地区测到的地闪资料进行的计算和统计分析,总结了两地区正负地闪的电流幅值、电流梯度、回收数、峰值电流时间、回周间隔等一批在防雷工程中具有较大在参考价值的闪电参量的概率分布特征,以及北京地区的平均年落雷密度分布和平均年雷暴日分布。     

导线覆冰与逆温的概率关系研究

本文以雪峰山观冰站2006～2013年冬季的覆冰观测成果为样本资料,运用GrADS软件对再分析气象资料NECP做数据读取与加工计算,统计出雪峰山区域的逆温日数和分布特性,根据雪峰山站实测资料,统计出样本资料的结冰日数,结合再分析资料的计算结果,对雪峰山站结冰日数与逆温日数做概率统计分析,建立结冰日数与逆温日数之间的条件概率关系,获得了结冰日数的一般公式与雪峰山结冰日数的经验公式,选择湖南雪峰山站、四川罗汉林站、贵州大新寨点的覆冰观测资料为验证样本,运用结冰日数经验公式计算各站点的结冰日数,其结果与实际观测结冰日数误差范围为0～0.8天,结冰日数公式具有一定的适用性。     

微网用户短期负荷预测相似日选择算法

微网用户负荷基荷小、波动性和随机性大,增大了短期负荷预测难度。科学合理地选择相似日可以在一定程度上改善短期负荷预测的效果。分析了相似日选择的影响因素,针对微网用户负荷特点,提出了一种负荷点尺度上的相似日选取算法。该算法考虑了前几日气象因素的累积效应、短期负荷的连续性和周期性及时间距离的影响,其相似日评价函数计及了日特征相似和局部形相似,并引入时间因子,克服了传统人工经验选取相似日算法的主观性,使得选择的相似日更加客观合理。实例验证表明,该方法所选择的相似日用于微网用户短期预测时,可以提高预测精度,有一定的使用价值。     

南广高速铁路路基雨季快速填筑施工技术研究

根据南广高速铁路路基施工条件,探讨了路基雨季填筑施工规划及施工工艺,并从地基处理、填料挖运、排水体系、半成品保护等方面提出了雨季填筑施工专项措施,以保证路基的填筑质量。     

Impact of the implementation of rest days in live bird markets on the dynamics of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza

Live bird markets (LBMs) act as a network ‘hub’ and potential reservoir of infection for domestic poultry. They may therefore be responsible for sustaining H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus circulation within the poultry sector, and thus a suitable target for implementing control strategies. We developed a stochastic transmission model to understand how market functioning impacts on the transmission dynamics. We then investigated the potential for rest days—periods during which markets are emptied and disinfected—to modulate the dynamics of H5N1 HPAI within the poultry sector using a stochastic meta-population model. Our results suggest that under plausible parameter scenarios, HPAI H5N1 could be sustained silently within LBMs with the time spent by poultry in markets and the frequency of introduction of new susceptible birds'' dominant factors determining sustained silent spread. Compared with interventions applied in farms (i.e. stamping out, vaccination), our model shows that frequent rest days are an effective means to reduce HPAI transmission. Furthermore, our model predicts that full market closure would be only slightly more effective than rest days to reduce transmission. Strategies applied within markets could thus help to control transmission of the disease.     

Enhancing TRU burning and Am transmutation in Advanced Recycling Reactor

This paper presents about conceptual designs of Advanced Recycling Reactor (ARR) focusing on enhancement in transuranics (TRU) burning and americium (Am) transmutation. The design has been conducted in the context of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) seeking to close nuclear fuel cycle in ways that reduce proliferation risks, reduce the nuclear waste in the US and further improve global energy security. This study strives to enhance the TRU burning and the Am transmutation, assuming the development of related technologies in this study, while the ARR based on mature technologies was designed in the previous study. It has followed that the provided TRU burning core is designed to burn TRU at 28 kg/TW_thh, by adding moderator pins of B₄C (Enriched B-11) and the Am transmutation core will be able to transmute Am at 34 kg/TW_thh, by locating Am blanket of AmN around the TRU burning core. It indicates that these concepts improve TRU burning by 40-50% than the previous core and can transmute Am effectively, keeping the void reactivity acceptable.     

基于支持向量机的纯电动公交车充／换电站日负荷预测

讨论了基于相似日选取的支持向量机电动汽车日负荷预测方法。通过对北京现有纯电动公交车充/换电站充电负荷的大量调研,分析了公交车充电站充电负荷的数据特征,采用关联分析方法提取了影响电动公交站充电负荷的因素,基于相关因素应用灰色关联理论构建相似日的小样本集合,而后建立多输入单输出的支持向量机预测模型。针对支持向量机预测模型,提出了两阶段确定模型参数的方法,首先直接确定不敏感损失参数ε,再通过遗传算法寻找最优核参数p和正则化参数C,以提高参数ε选取范围设置较大时的预测精度。实例测试结果表明,日负荷预测的均方根误差为10.85%,能基本满足有序控制的要求;与其他预测方法相比,改进方法具有较高的预测精度和稳定性。     

Milk production from Holstein half udders after concurrent thirty- and seventy-day dry periods

The objective of this study was to use a within-cow, half-udder model to compare the effect of cessation of milk removal from mammary quarters within respective half udders at either 30 or 70 d before expected calving date (ECD) on the ability of the half udders to subsequently produce milk. Pregnant Holstein cows were assigned to control (n = 14) or treatment (TRT, n = 26) groups. All mammary quarters in the udder of cows in the control group had 70-d (68 ± 9 d) dry periods, whereas in each cow of the TRT group, 1 randomly selected half udder was dried at 70 d before ECD and the other half udder continued to be milked twice daily until dried at 30 d before ECD. From 80 through 70 d before ECD, amounts of milk produced by the left and right half udders of cows in the TRT group were measured at the first-shift milking. No differences were detected in the actual or relative amounts of milk produced by the left (3.46 ± 0.2 kg; 48.8 ± 1.0%) and the right (3.63 ± 0.2 kg; 51.2 ± 1.0%) half udders. Furthermore, the actual and relative amounts of milk produced by the half udders (n = 12 left, 14 right) subsequently dry for 67 ± 7 d (3.56 ± 0.2 kg; 50.2 ± 1.0%) and the half udders (n = 14 left, 12 right) subsequently dry for 27 ± 7 d (3.54 ± 0.2 kg; 49.8 ± 1.0%) did not differ before they were dried. However, from 3 to 100 d of the subsequent lactation, the 30-d dry half udders produced 18.9% less milk than the 70-d dry half udders (16.3 vs. 20.1 ± 1.0 kg/d). In addition, relative amounts of total-udder milk produced by the 30- and 70-d dry half udders in the same cow differed (44.9 vs. 55.1 ± 0.2%, respectively). Cows in the control group produced more milk than cows in the TRT group through 80 DIM (39.5 vs. 35.2 ± 0.6 kg/d), but not from 3 through 150 DIM (39.0 vs. 36.2 ± 1.6 kg/d). Thus, half udders that produced the same actual and relative amounts of milk before being dried did not do so when given a 30-d dry period instead of a 70-d dry period. When compared with the pre-dry value (49.8%), the relative contribution of half udders dry for 30 d to the total milk yield during the first 100 DIM was decreased by 9.8%.     

基于缺能经济损失的上海市天然气储备量分析

天然气燃烧后无废渣、废水产生,相较煤炭、石油等能源具有使用安全、热值高、洁净等优势,在上海能源供应比例快速增长,已在能源供应中起到了举足轻重的作用.通过天然气供应系统可靠性分析以及天然气缺能经济损失的计算,提出了上海市天然气最优储备天数的分析方法,并以2011年为例进行了定量计算.分析结果显示,上海市天然气供应中断对经济损失影响较为稳定,但用来防止供应中断的天然气应急储备仍显不足.