基于极限学习机的堤防工程多元风险指标评价方法

为提高堤防工程风险评价的准确性,提出了基于极限学习机的堤防工程多元风险指标评价方法。首先,综合考虑影响堤防风险的28个评价指标,利用层次分析法从预警系统、堤防工程系统、环境系统和社会经济系统这4个方面建立了堤防工程多元风险评价指标体系。接着,基于极限学习机算法对28个指标进行标准化处理及分级标准构建,以风险指标作为输入量,分级隶属度作为输出量,划分风险等级,量化评价指标,估计多元风险评价指标值和判断风险的严重程度。最后,依托鄱阳湖重点堤防——康山大堤,构建多元风险评价指标体系,运用极限学习机算法计算多元风险评价指标值。评价结果表明:康山大堤目前处于基本安全水平,符合康山大堤经过两次加固后的工程实际情况,并与其他方法进行对比,验证了提出方法的可靠性和有效性。该方法可拓展应用到其他重要水工结构工程风险评估中。     

洪水预报智能模型在中国半干旱半湿润区的应用对比

为探究不同洪水预报智能模型在我国半干旱半湿润区的应用效果,选用决策树、多层感知器、随机森林和支持向量机4种模型在陕西省3个典型流域进行逐时洪水预报;选择相关系数、纳什效率系数、均方根误差、平均绝对误差和相对误差等评价指标,比较不同预见期下4种模型在半干旱半湿润典型流域洪水预报的适用性。结果表明:在短预见期预报中,4种模型在半湿润区典型流域均可获得较高的预报结果,在半干旱典型流域模拟精度相对偏低,仅支持向量机模型满足预报要求;随着预见期延长,不同模型性能变化差异大,支持向量机模型整体稳定,在小流域实时洪水预报中具有明显优势;随机森林模型与决策树模型精度随预见期延长而缓慢下降,前者适应性更好;多层感知器模型精度随预见期延长而骤减,模型稳定性较差。     

电力工程中的地质灾害危险性评估

我国幅员辽阔,地质环境条件多样且复杂,导致了地质灾害发育强烈,种类繁多、危害较大。地质灾害与工程建设活动密切相关,既相互作用,相互依存,又相互影响[1]。电力工程项目遍布全国,特别是输电线路大多为人烟稀少的山区分布,线路长,跨越的地质地貌区域复杂,存在的地质灾害多种多样,或多或少面临着各种地质灾害的严重威胁[2]。通过电力工程地质灾害危险性评估工作的现状及评估工作流程的介绍,进一步分析电力工程地质灾害的危险性评估工作中存在的问题并提出了相应的看法。     

河套盆地晚更新世以来黄河改道对高砷地下水分布的控制机制

针对河套盆地开展了历时多年的水文地质环境地质调查,利用采集的298组浅层地下水样品以及收集并甄选的382个水文地质钻孔记录分析发现:河套盆地内95%的高砷地下水(As质量浓度10μg/L)集中在黄河决口、改道形成的古河道影响带及黄河决口扇裙带。其中,盆地南部首次发现了较为集中的高砷地下水,其分布范围与黄河北岸的晚更新世以来黄河决口、改道形成的4个大型决口扇,在空间上有着良好的对应关系。黄河古河道带及决口扇裙带表现为较强的还原环境及蒸发浓缩作用以及较弱的地表水补给强度。受pH值、含铁氧化物的还原性溶解等因素影响,决口扇裙带浅层地下水中砷的含量略低于平原中部黄河古河道带。结果表明:黄河古河道带及决口扇裙带特定的沉积环境控制着地下水的水文地球化学过程,进而对高砷地下水的分布具有决定性的作用。     

基于关键闸坝优选的区域水网水量调控

为实现区域水网水量的高效调控,从水量、水生态、水质和闸坝管理等4个方面构建包含10个指标的闸坝优选评价指标体系,以廊坊市凤河-永定河区域水网为研究对象,计算区域内32座闸坝的综合关键指数并给出影响程度排序,采用水动力数学模型验证关键闸坝选取的合理性。结果表明：优选出的永丰闸和东张务闸是区域水网的关键闸坝,通过调节这两座闸坝的开度即可满足区域水网的生态需水和防洪排涝调度目标,保持区域水网较优的水力连通能力,提高区域水网水量调控效率。     

Forest harvesting in rural properties: Risks and worsening to the worker’s health under the ergonomics approach

Through an ergonomic approach, this study aimed to evaluate whether workers involved in forest harvesting activities in rural properties are subject to the development of work-related diseases, as well as their consequences. A cross-sectional study with 267 forest workers in rural properties in the Brazilian Central region was used. The following evaluations were performed for each of the activities (felling, delimbing, tracing, manual extraction and manual loading): physical workload evaluation; biomechanical evaluation; risk of repetitive strain injuries/work-related musculoskeletal disorders; environmental noise and vibration factors, where relevant, and thermal overload through the Wetbulb Globe Temperature index. The results showed that in general the physical workload was very high, exceeding the cardiovascular load limits and adding to the need for work reorganization. All activities exposed workers to serious and imminent risks of developing injuries to the spine and lower limbs. Likewise, in general the risk of the appearance of RSI/WMSDs was very high for all activities evaluated. Such results are due to the combination of organizational work factors and factors of the work environment such as exposure to bad weather, uneven terrain, lifting and handling loads above tolerable limits, excessive noise and thermal overload. All of this allows to conclude that ergonomic risks and workers’ health hazards in forest harvesting in rural properties are latent and very worrying, and that these workers are exposed to a form of labor exploitation that invariably leads to physical and emotional exhaustion and therefore to their decreased labor capacity and useful working life.     

The impact of risk and protective factors on online teaching experience in high school Italian teachers during the COVID-19 pandemic

The lockdown due to COVID-19 in Italy resulted in the sudden closure of schools, with a shift from traditional teaching to the online one. Through an online questionnaire, this survey explores teachers' experience of online teaching, the level of risk factors (e.g., stress) and protective factors (e.g., locus of control) and their impact on satisfaction levels during the social distancing. One hundred seven high school teachers from Lombardy, an Italian region very affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, participated. Results show that depression and stress are the main predictors of satisfaction levels for online teaching. In addition, coping, locus of control and self-efficacy emerge as important protective factors. Finally, although there is great satisfaction with the online teaching experience, critical elements emerged. This study is relevant because it describes the critical elements of the online teaching experience, and identifies some protective factors and the main risk factors in teachers operating in an area strongly marked by social restrictions imposed by the pandemic. High school teachers emerge as a sub-group of the general population with specific psychological reactions. Considering the results, it is possible to suggest providing high-quality educational support and crisis-psychological oriented services to teachers, and help to maintain the psychological well-being.     

一种基于网络安全风险评估的入侵检测方法

针对传统的入侵检测系统存在报警数量大、误报率高等缺陷,提出了一种基于网络安全风险评估的入侵检测方法,该方法基于入侵检测结果,引入抗体浓度随入侵强度动态变化这一人工免疫理论的最新研究成果进行网络安全风险的计算,然后根据当前网络面临的实时安全风险动态设置报警策略。实验结果表明,该方法能够实时、定量地计算主机和网络所面临的风险,并极大地降低报警数量和误报率。     

空中交通预警与防撞系统(TCAS)风险及对策研究

空中交通预警与防撞系统TCAS对飞行安全非常重要,它能够通过对附近的飞机进行冲突检测,预测未来可能发生的危险,提示飞行员避免危险,帮助机组维持与其他飞机之间的空中交通安全间隔;但TCAS本身依然存在风险;在此对TCAS进行了半物理仿真测试,包括数字样机开发测试、物理样机开发测试、虚拟试飞以及数据统计分析等,对其各项功能进行测试与验证;在参阅众多相关文献的基础上,结合所做的研究工作,讨论了TCAS的主要风险,并针对这些风险,提出TCAS在设计、测试、操作方面需要改进的地方,从各方面完善TCAS,降低其风险,进一步保障飞行安全。     

经食道心房调搏的放射性核素心血管造影

本文应用反符合电路剔除调搏脉冲干扰的方法,制成经食道心房调搏心电心音门电路触发装置,用于经食道心房调搏的核素心血管造影。参考Tzivoni标准,当逐级增加调搏心率至140次/min或亚极量心率后发现:冠心病人有调搏后EF降低;急性心肌梗塞病人EF减低更为明显,并呈室壁反向运动。因此,心房调搏核素心血管造影有助于冠心病,特别是心肌梗塞的诊断。