水文学的研究方法与理论创新

回顾了水文学在其 30 0余年的形成和发展中曾出现过的若干引人入胜、富有启发性、对学科发展起着重要推动作用的研究成果 .论述了“假设”、“猜想”、“推理”、“比拟”、“综合”和“实验”等研究方法的运用在水文学理论创新中的重要作用 .     

Simulation of runoff and phosphorus transport in a Carpathian catchment,Slovakia

A comprehensive, GIS‐based modelling approach is developed to estimate runoff and phosphorus transport within a watershed at a daily time step. The approach relies on the use of GIS data for deriving major critical model parameters that exhibit distinct spatial variability over the catchment. Surface runoff is calculated by a modified rational method, which depends upon rainfall intensity, soil moisture status, slope, land‐use and soil characteristics. Phosphorus loading is estimated as a function of the runoff volume and the event mean concentration for different land use categories. A diffusive approximation method is used to trace runoff and phosphorus transport to the basin outlet. The modelling approach is tested in the Margecany catchment, Hornad River basin, Slovakia, to simulate runoff, phosphorus loading, and its transport on a daily time scale using data observed between 1995 and 2000. Satisfactory results of the hydrographs and phosphorus concentration at the basin outlet are obtained, though more efforts regarding the phosphorus cycling and its biochemical reactions need to be clarified by further research. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simultaneous HPLC quantification of total cholesterol,tocopherols and β-carotene in Barrosã-PDO veal

A simple, rapid and sensitive procedure for the simultaneous determination of total cholesterol, tocopherols and β-carotene in meat is described. The method involves a direct saponification of the meat, a single n-hexane extraction and the analysis of the extracted compounds by normal-phase HPLC, using fluorescence (tocopherols) and UV–Vis photodiode array (cholesterol and β-carotene) detections in tandem. Rates of recovery of spiked meat samples were 93% for cholesterol, 83–86% for (α-, β- and -γ) tocopherols and 89% for β-carotene. Repeatabilities were high (CV < 6%) for all determined compounds, except for δ-tocopherol. This tocopherol, which is not usually present in meat, showed a much lower recovery percentage (73%) and repeatability (12.8%). This methodology was applied for the quantification of total cholesterol, tocopherols and β-carotene in three muscles (longissimus thoracis, longissimus lumborum and semitendinosus) of the Portuguese traditional Barrosã-PDO veal, obtained from autochthonous calves fed extensively during summer (with the least abundant green pastures) and slaughtered in early autumn (October). Barrosã-PDO veal showed median contents of total cholesterol (0.50–0.56 mg/g) and, depending on the analysed muscle, moderate to high contents of α-tocopherol (3.3–3.9 μg/g) and β-carotene (0.07–0.09 μg/g), suggesting an high sensorial and hygienic quality.     

影响水利工程投资变化的实证分析

影响水利工程投资变化的因素可以分为市场因素、经济因素、设计因素、工期因素、不可预见因素等。选用南水北调东线江苏某段工程的投资变化数据,运用多元方差分析的方法就影响因素对不同工程投资变化的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,影响因素对不同工程的投资变化影响存在显著性差异,工程规模越大影响因素的影响程度就越大。据此提出在水利工程投资控制中必须优化价差管理方法,加强设计管理,减少设计变更,建立“静态投资、动态管理”体系来实现对工程投资变化的控制。     

低渗透储集层中油水层的地球化学综合判识——以济阳坳陷基山砂岩体为例

为了提高低渗透油藏油、水层识别的准确性，以济阳坳陷惠民凹陷基山砂岩体低渗透油藏为研究对象，探索以地球化学方法综合判识储集层流体性质的方法。以试油数据为参考，首先以热解定量方法初步评价，油层与油水同层、油水同层与水层的ST界限分别定为4．00mg／g及2．00mg／g；再以热解色谱定性方法将水层（或干层）与油层及油水同层明确区分；仍不能有效区分的油层及油水同层，则辅以热解参数表征的储集层变异系数进一步评价，变异系数高于0．3的为油水同层，低于0．3的为油层。具单一油源的多口井，可借助菲与二苯并噻吩（P／DBT）将油层及油水同层准确识别，P／DBT值大于12．5则为油层、小于等于12．5则为油水同层。对于相变较快，泥质薄层较多的低渗透油藏，利用热解参数S1／S2可评价储集层的真假隔层及油柱的纵向连通性。图4参17     

Composite scale modeling in the presence of censored data

A composite scale modeling approach can be used to combine several scales or variables into a single scale or variable. A typical application is to combine age and usage together to form a composite timescale model. The combined scale is expected to have better failure prediction capability than individual scales. Two typical models are the linear and multiplicative models. Their parameters are determined by minimizing the sample coefficient of variation of the composite scale. The minimum coefficient of variation is hard to apply in the presence of censored data. Another open issue is how to identify key variables when a number of variables are combined. This paper develops methods to handle these two issues. A numerical example is also included to illustrate the proposed methods.     

工程变更及其管理

本文以京秦高速公路 (廊坊段 )为例介绍了在机电工程实施中针对工程变更采用的一套严密科学的工程变更管理程序。履约各方在执行程序过程中 ,职责分明 ,有效地保证了整个项目的顺利实施。     

Use of chemical variation and predation as plant defenses byEncelia farinosa against a specialist herbivore

Larvae of the monophagous herbivore,Trirhabda geminata, selectively eat particular plants and plant parts of its natural host,Encelia farinosa. Measurements of leaf damage and larval positions on branches through time support this observation. Time-lapse movie photography revealed that larvae are sufficiently mobile to search most of a plant in a 48-hr period and that aggregations were the result of larval activity and not directly the result of oviposition. Experiments withT. geminata larvae on artificial diets containing a range of natural concentrations of chemical extracts fromE. farinosa leaves showed that the larvae grew significantly slower and had a lower overall survivorship at the high concentration. Combining the results of all choice tests, larvae appeared unable to distinguish between high- and low-concentration agar diets. Considered individually, larval preferences for natural production concentrations changed as the season progressed. Early-season larvae preferred low-concentration leaves, while late-season larvae preferred high-concentrations. Measurements of chemical and nitrogen content of leaves selected by larvae in the field confirmed this pattern. Percent parasitism in field-collected larvae increased with season as the larval population decreased. This combination of slowed growth and increasing parasitism and predation is a putative defense strategy ofEncelia farinosa to prevent adaptation by a specialist herbivore to the total range of compounds elaborated.